DoD Buzz: Afghan War Uncertain, So Are Minerals

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Afghan War Uncertain, So Are Minerals
By Colin Clark Monday, June 21st, 2010 11:11 am
Posted in International, Land, Policy

Tony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies produces so much excellent analysis so quickly that it sometimes gets lost in the rush. With all the starry eyed talk of Afghanistan’s trillion dollar asset bank — also known as mining deposits — Cordesman’s flinty-eyed scouring of the issue caught our eye.

Following is an edited version of his excellent piece about whether Afghanistan is worth U.S. blood and treasure, how much treasure Afghanistan may really have and what it means to them and to us:

There is nothing more tragic than watching beautiful theories being assaulted by gangs of ugly facts. It is time, however, to be far more realistic about the war in Afghanistan. It may well still be winnable, but it is not going to be won by denying the risks, the complexity, and the time that any real hope of victory will take. It is not going to be won by “spin” or artificial news stories, and it can easily be lost by exaggerating solvable short-term problems.

Two critical questions dominate any realistic discussion of the conflict. The first is whether the war is worth fighting. The second is whether it can be won. The answers to both questions are uncertain. The US has no enduring reason to maintain a strategic presence in Afghanistan or Central Asia. It has far more important strategic priorities in virtually every other part of the world, and inserting itself into Russia’s “near abroad,” China’s sphere of influence, and India’s ambitions makes no real sense. Geography, demographics, logistics, and economics all favor other nations, and no amount of academic hubris can realistically model American reform of the “Stans” in ways that are cost-effective relative to other uses of US resources.

The carefully spun good news story about Afghan minerals may or may not prove to be economically realistic. It is all too typical of a long series of “breadbasket” arguments that take problem countries and argue that their natural resources can make them wealthy or that they can become major exporters of agricultural products. In practice, it will be at least half a decade before Afghanistan’s mineral resources will pay off, and the key outside investors are likely to be Chinese, Russian, and local. It is very unlikely that firms can compete without bribes and incentives as the cost of doing business, and even if US registered companies do invest, they are likely to operate as non–US entities in ways than minimize any economic benefits to the US.