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First where do we get the electricity from? Solar, wind, tide and other renewable sources of energy produce LESS THAN 1 % of the electrical power we need NOW, if you transform oil to electrical you have to somehow triple the amount of electricity we are using now (Oil supplies over HALF of the energy we use today, mostly in transport). It would take at least ten years to install and built the needed solar panels and to install them on every roof in America (Many older roofs will have to be reinforced to take the weight). Even this will NOT provide the expected GROWTH in Electrical power let alone provide powers for cars, trucks, trains, and ships (and for you Nuclear advocates out there this is ALSO true of expanding Nuclear power plants to provide the electrical power). ,
As to hydrogen, why not just stay with gasoline? You can make gasoline (or its close twin Ethanol) why cheaper than hydrogen from vegetable matter. Furthermore you do NOT need a heavy reinforced container to hole Ethanol/gasoline. Hydrogen, being a gas, MUST be compressed to be usable in a vehicle, thus not only do you have the energy cost of producing the hydrogen out of water you have the energy waste of Compressing the Hydrogen. Hydrogen will contain to be used for Rockets for the power it provides, when burned, exceeds anything else we have, but at the cost of a very heavy rocket (and thus why only the heaviest Rockets have ever used Hydrogen, even the Space Shuttles booster rockets are aluminum oxide not Hydrogen).
Lets get real, while Solar, Wind, Tidal and even Nuclear power will provide us with electrical power as oil peaks, all of them in combination can NOT PROVIDE THE POWER we use in the form of oil. Conservation has to the BIG factor for at least 10 years (and maybe more depending on how fast Every Roof in America gets a solar panel, wind farms expand and Nuclear power expands). Conservation will have to go hand in hand with restructuring our society to be less wasteful of energy. Thus you will see more people return to the inner city (Kicking and Screaming, but going when they have no other choice do to lack of oil) just to be nearer their jobs. Jobs will also return to the inner city, to be nearer their customers and workers and the rail system.
How this will work out no one knows, but I can guess. First as oil production drops, people will protest and demand that the price drops. People will demand Congress do something about the price of Gasoline. You may even have riots (Mostly in Suburbia, most people in the inner city can get around without gasoline, I once joke you may have blacks lined up on the interstates to keep the rioting suburbanites out of the Ghettos, for most people will what to protest in a central location and that is the old Downtowns even today).
At the same time people will try to go with more fuel efficient vehicles. I remember in the 1970s while in High School a Teacher mentioning buying a motorcycle to save gasoline, when I mentioned a Bicycle instead he had a look like a deer in your headlights i.e. "What are you talking about, I am an American Adult and I do NOT ride a Bicycle since I am over 16". Thus the first step will be people buying Motorcycles and mopeds to save fuel. People will buy smaller cars like they do in Europe. You may even see people owning 2-3 cars, one for the "Family" i.e. today's family Sedan, to be sued when the Family go out together, and the other being a one or two seat commuter car with a moped engine to save gasoline. People will then convert o Bicycles as the price of Gasoline goes up, but sooner or later people will have to abandon their suburban dream homes and move closer to their jobs. The shops will follow the people (i.e. Good Bye Walmart).
As to Walmart, I foresee it following the path of A&P. For you people who do not remember A&P, A&P in the 1920s and 1930s HAD a Larger share of the Food Store Market then Walmart has of its marker today. A&P was so large it could (and did) do the same stunts Walmart is doing to its supplies today (Through it was more cost cutting against the American Farmers as opposed to shipping all the jobs to China). The problem with A&P it so filled its niche that when the market changed, it could not change with it. A&P was the first cash and carry supper market. Prior to A&P most markets gave out credit which the Customer had to repay on payday. This cost most stores money which A&P avoided by demanding Cash and Carry. The problem for A&P was it was formed when most people did NOT have a car. This changed during the 1920s and 1930s as more and more people purchased a car (yes in the mist of the Great Depression people purchased cars, to be able to get to the few jobs that were available). The big boom, when the Majority of Americans had Cars did not Occur till after WWII, but that was achieved by 1954. A&P did NOT anticipate this, it had small parking lots for people with cars, A&P adopted shopping carts so that people could buy more while in the store, but its Stores were still set by the size of Stores large enough to be near most people and close enough that people could still walk to them (To give you an idea of the Size of an A&P, the last one I know of that operated in the Pittsburgh Area was closed, torn down and replaced with an McDonald's, The McDonald's and its parking lot takes up the same space as the A&P and its parking lot did).
With the adoption of the car, A&P's much smaller competitors started to go to Bigger and Bigger Stores with large parking lots. A&P could NOT do the same without having to close down its already existing stores AND CUT PROFIT. Thus as the market Shifted A&P lost market share, lost profit to local Supermarkets who were willing to go to the Suburbs and build bigger and bigger Stores. A&P slowly went out of Business for it was to big to adjust its marketing Strategy when the market shifted.
I expect the Same with Walmart. It is to large to shift as the market changes. People will slowly try to shift the cost of gasoline to other people. As Cars gets smaller to save fuel, the ability to TRANSPORT more then a modest load of groceries will become the norm. Walmart Strategy has been to stay in the outer Suburbs (or the rural areas) and have people come to its huge stores. IT is rare to find a Walmart in an Inner-City or even an older Suburb. Once oil goes up, people will NOT be able to travel to Walmart and when people can not travel Walmart till fail, for Walmart, like A7P after WWII, can NOT adjust its Strategy for Walmart would have to commit to smaller stores or more expensive real estate which, given its corporate culture, Walmart will be unable to do. It may take 20-30 years and something called "Walmart" may survive, but 20-30 years after peak the huge Walmart Stores will be a thing of the past, like most A&Ps.
My point in going through the above is to show HOW society will change do to the lack of oil. Today's society is built on Cheap oil. Once Cheap Oil is gone, people will have to change. You will see more people walking and biking as a means of TRANSPORT as opposed to EXERCISE. Such people will cater to stores that accommodate such walkers and bikers (i.e. Smaller stores closer to where such people live). People will have to work, thus people will move closer to where they work so to be able to bike or walk to work. You will see a slow re-birth of Main Street America. The New Suburbs will disappear for they will be to far from most people's work. People who work in the Suburbs will slowly see they jobs move to the City as Employers try to minimize fuel usage (and the most fuel efficient land transport is steel wheel on Steel Rail).
Now certain suburbs will Survive, for example if a Mall is by a Light Rail Vehicle system I can foresee it surviving and even booming as it shifts from expecting all of its customers to come by Car to expecting many of its customers to come by Light Rail. An Example of this occurred during the 1973 Oil Embargo. Every Mall in the Pittsburgh Area saw a drop in sales EXCEPT South Hills Village. SOuth Hills Village was on the last Interurban Rail Line in the Pittsburgh Are. The line was rebuilt afterward as a Light Rail Vehicle line, but I remember taking the line with a lot of other shoppers when I had to go out. In the 1970s the Rail line was about 1/4 mile away and you had to take a dirt path and cross a four lane highway to get to the mall, but people did it and enough for South Hills Village to EXPAND sales when every other mall was seeing a decline in Sales.
People will change if they have to. In the 1970s People took the Rail Line to the Mall as opposed to Driving. If a Mall is on a rail line I see the same thing happening, but as the situation gets worse (i.e. the oil shortage set worse and price continues to go up) you may even see the MAJORITY of people traveling to such a Mall by rail. The Stores will want to stay open, but most of its workers will have a harder and harder time getting to the Mall (even with the Rail line). After everything else is tried (and I mean everything else, except pay increases) the Mall owners will accept that they have to provide Housing for they low paid employees in order to keep such employees. Thus I see the Mall building Apartments over the Parking lots for their employees and after a short while (and maybe even at the same time) for Senior Citizens and other people who have a hard time getting to the Mall. I these being two stories with escalators and Steps (Ramps for the lower floor only, remember these two floors will be OVER the Parking lot, thus in affect these will be three stories high, the Parking lot, and the two floors of Apartments). This will make such malls much like the old Downtowns around 1900, stores on the Bottom Floor, and Apartments above for employees (and often time the Owners).
Thus you will see people using less energy by changing their lifestyle, going to live by their work and since people will be living in these new Apartments you will see Business attracted even more to such malls by the rail line. On the other hand those areas more than 15 minutes by bicycle form the Rail line will slowly be abandoned and become rural farm land again (and that is about 2-3 miles depending on terrain). Such a change will lead to Americans saving enough fuel to keep the price in check for more important needs (i.e. Ambulances, Fire trucks Etc) but take 20-30 years.
After the price of Oil sidetracks most Cars, the next thing that will go will be Trucks. I foresee Trucks getting smaller engines to save fuel, I foresee them having a top speed of 25-30 mph and used for local deliveries only (Trucks Competition will be even slower Horses and Human Powered Vehicles, Human Power Vehicles for short). Small packages will be done by Human Power Vehicles (Mostly bicycles, but you may even see 2-4 man vehicles for light loads). For Heavier loads the choice will be Horses and Trucks. Horses eat every day and need to be taken care of every day (and spread their manure on all the streets which is why most cities tried to get rid of them as soon as the Truck was invented). Given the problems with horses I foresee Trucks being kept on in Urban Areas, but geared for the most fuel efficient operations even if that means low speeds. Unlike the Switch of Commuters to Light Rail and Bicycles, this will be marginal and one of the reasons the price of oil will stay high.
Light Rail will make a come back both for its use of Electrical Power (which means it can be powered by any other form of energy, Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Coal, Bio-mass etc). I also foresee the Heavy Rail lines going Electric (The Rail lines was on track to go Electric from 1900-1930 when the Great Depression stopped the move to Electric Drive and then the Steady drop in the price of oil from 1930 till the mid-1960s killed any further Electrification of the Rail lines, in fact some lines converted form Electricity to Diesel in the 1950s do to the drop in price of oil). Such electric Trains would be more energy efficient then today's Diesels and not depended on one form of energy as are diesel engines. Like increase electric generation such a conversion will take 20 years (Diesel started to replace Steam in the 1930s, but Steam survived till the 1960s on the major lines, but it was all over by 1970). Thus another long term changeover, but like increase electrical production doable.
Ships can revert to wind (with back up engines for calms) for trade. Modern Computers can make a sailing ship operate with the same size crew as a modern Diesel. People forget that the main reason steam and then Diesel replaced Sail, was NOT only that steam and Diesel Ships can move in calms, but such ships needed less crewmen to man than sailing ships. Sailing ships needed enough crewmen to adjust the sails as needed, you did NOT need those sailors on a Steam or Diesel Ship. Flatboats disappeared off America's inland Rivers in the 1920s for the same reason, you needed more men to guide a Flatboat downstream, then you needed to propel the same load with a Steam or Diesel Tug. This will reverse as oil goes up in price, followed by coal (even without increase demand for electricity caused by people converting from oil to electricity for transport as outlined above, Coal is expected to peak in production about 20-30 years after oil). Thus sail will make a comeback as I see no other reliable form of energy to propel ships (Through I do see such ships having axillary engines during calms and for assistance going in and out of port).
Notice I see transport using some sort of oil even after peak. Farming can convert back to the horse, people can adjust their lifestyle to be able to walk or bike to work, home and to go shopping. But once you look at Transport some sort of portable power must be used at times. Sail and Electricity will help, but even if trade contracts 90% (and I expect trade to contract that much) you will still see a use for oil (If coal is available it will be converted to oil as a more convenient fuel). Sooner or later most of this fuel will be bio-Diesel or Ethanol (i.e from Plants) but given people's need to eat these will be high priced (I expect $50 a gallon). At such prices only those people who need it the most will pay for it. This will be Transport, for most people will pay top dollar to get their sick or injured body to the Hospital.
Just some comments are why a simple solution like converting to Electricity is NOT the solution to peak oil. We have to look at ALL of our forms of energy AND adjust how we are living in any system to adjust the problems that Peak oil will produce.
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