Worst case scenario -- ten years or longer

[jeanpalmer]

The ultimate worst-case scenario is that the well is never successfully plugged, said Fred Aminzadeh, a research professor at the University of Southern California’s Center for Integrated Smart Oil Fields who previously worked for Unocal Corp. That would leave the well to flow for probably more than a decade, he said in a telephone interview.

More likely, the relief wells will eventually succeed, though it might take longer than the three months predicted by BP, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPfFTgqayIKY&pos=9

[aquart]

1. Now would be a good time to find out if prayer works.

[Scuba]

5. It doesn't. People have been praying for peace for centuries.

[Fumesucker]

9. I was taught that prayers are always answered..

But the answer is usually "no"..

[Ganja Ninja]

2. Here's what I don't understand.

Why does the relief well have to intersect the main well at the top of the reservoir? Why can't they go down half way or 3/4 of the way and tap into it?

[meeshrox]

6. They have to intersect the bottom of the other well because

of pressure gradients. If they go deeper than the broken well, they have to pump the reservoir until the pressures equalize. The rocks (shale) have pore spaces in them like limestones do, but with a different configuration. When the oil is pumped from one zone or area from below, such as if the relief well were half-way down, the oil level at the top of the reservoir does not go down. It's not like sticking a straw into the bottom of a punch bowl and sucking the liquid out, and having the oil leave a large empty space in the rocks. It's more like sticking a straw into a sponge. When you pull from one area of the sponge (or reservoir), the pore spaces do not drain the same way. You're not going to get all of the liquid out by pumping from the bottom of the sponge. It's much easier to tap directly at the broken well.

What they need is to drill several more relief wells. The well that blew in Australia needed 5 of them to bring the pressure down enough to cement the broken one. If we finish in August with 2 wells and more are needed, it's just that much more time to drill more.

Everything they've done is a show for the public to think they are actually trying. The reality is that the pressures involved are too great for the efforts they keep trying, such as the top hat. John Stewart's mentos and fishing line demonstration is the most accurate depiction I've seen!

[Ganja Ninja]

7. Then why not go down just far enough into the rock strata to safely

seal it with a nuke? Then they wouldn't need to tap the well. They would only need to get close enough for the explosion to work.

[meeshrox]

11. I think that would be very dangerous

With the type of strata there, it's unpredictable how the explosion would fracture the rock. There is a possibility that it would create large fractures in the rock. We've seen this when very large volcanoes erupt and form calderas, they form large ring fractures around the crater. Long Valley would be a good one to google for what they look like. Then the circular ring fractures at the surface around the detonation, in my opinion as a geologist, would become new seeps for oil and natural gas. It would be impossible to capture the oil leaking from all of these fractures. Right now, we have point sources that are already identified. If we use a nuke, there would be countless new sources without any hope of containment.

Putting the drama aside of talking about detonating a nuclear device (don't really know how that can seem like a good idea in any case), there are plenty of things that could go wrong with the way the geology is configured. I think that it's too unpredictable and that the consequences would be worse (if that can even be imagined). I heard about the Russians doing this, but their wells were not in deep water, they were on land and they only used the devices to starve out-of-control oil fires of oxygen. Once the fires were put out, they still had to go back and cement the well shut. They have never used the nukes to implode a leaking well.

I heart Bill Maher, but his suggestion of this is one of the worst ideas he's ever presented. I was shocked, really!

[Statistical]

8. Deeper the relief well the more mud is contains.

Relief well generates pressure by the weight of the mud.

5 miles of mud = lot more pressure than 1 mile of mud. They won't intersect at the very bottom of the well rather at a point "near" the bottom where relief well can generate enough pressure (by weight of miles of drilling mud) to overcome upward pressure of oil.

Intersecting near the surface is no different than the "top kill" method used in BOP. They simply couldn't generate enough pressure to force mud against the flow of oil.

[ixion]

3. The ecosystem in AK is still recovering from the (smaller) Valez spill

so 10 years is wishful thinking, IMO.

[Javaman]

10. I'm thinking more like permanent.

as in never recover in our life time.

[Xipe Totec]

4. XKCD Explains worst-case scenario