Potential Tropical System Forming East of Bahamas

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.wakulla.com/Wakulla_News/Local_News/Potential_Tropical_System_Forming_East_of_Bahamas_201005238340/

Tropics Update: May 23, 2010

In this update:

Potential tropical or sub-tropical system developing east of Bahamas

Potential impacts for Florida and Gulf oil spill

An area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas is being monitored for possible tropical or subtropical development. It has been nearly stationary over the past 24-48 hours, but estimated maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35mph.

At this time, the system is extratropical (having the atmospheric structure of a winter type storm system) and the heaviest storm activity and highest winds are well east of the low pressure center, but computer models indicate that the transition to a sub-tropical system (having some tropical characteristics but the greatest winds are away from the center of the storm) or fully tropical system could occur in the next 48 hours, making it possibly the first tropical depression or sub-tropical storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Where will it go?

This system is forecast to move slowly north and then northwestward over the next few days as it gets steered between a large ridge of high pressure near the New England coastline and high pressure over the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

Most of the computer models indicate that the system will make its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, with a position just off the North Carolina/South Carolina coast. All of the major and more reliable computer models forecast that the system will not make landfall, but will loop to the south and then move east back into the Atlantic late this week as it gets picked up and eventually absorbed by an approaching frontal system.

[marylanddem]

1. I guess it could & will get a lot worse, won't it...

So many awful possible scenarios, so many awful things happening now.

[daggahead]

2. The forecast show it may track back out into the Atlantic.

[MountainLaurel]

3. Wondering

If this could draw the oil now making its way out of the Gulf via the Loop Current into the Atlantic even more quickly.

[NNN0LHI]

4. The article mentions this

How will this affect the Gulf of Mexico oil spill?

Counter-clockwise flow around the system would likely lead to offshore northerly winds over the northern-central Gulf beginning Tuesday and possibly continuing into early Thursday. This may push some of the oil to the south, possibly pushing more into the Loop Current. At this time, northerly winds in the area are predicted to be fairly light, less than 10mph, but be a little stronger in the 10-15mph range on Wednesday. If this system were to be stronger or make a closer approach to the Carolina coast before moving away, stronger winds may occur and a more appreciable amount of oil could be pushed further south into the Loop Current.