So is Iran doing a Nuclear Test on February 11

[AllentownJake]

and if so, how is it going to be totally blamed on Democrats despite the fact that you don't get the materials to build a Nuclear Bomb in one year.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ayatollah-khamenei-iran-set-to-deliver-punch-that-will-stun-the-west-2010-2

Not the biggest defender of Barack's middle eastern policy, but seriously, if Iran does something scary on February 11th, I'm looking forward to hearing how this was so not George W. Bush's fault at all.

[Ozymanithrax]

1. Unless they have the whole world bamboozled, no...

They have, so far, only enriched to about 4% or 5%. They hope to begin enriching up to 20%. They need about 95% enrichment to make a bomb.

Now, if they have that much enriched uranium, it will be a huge surprise to everyone in the world. I think they are working on a bomb as a counter to the U.S. and Israel, and even Pakistan. But no one really thinks they have one.

[AllentownJake]

4. Must be a missle test than

If they have a bomb, I expect Israel to bomb them the next day, if they've improved their missile tech, that could also be the result.

[Ozymanithrax]

6. If they set off a bomb test, I don't expect Israel to wait for the next day.

Just count down from ten after the mushroom goes up.

At that point it would be much too late to contain their nulear ambitions by bombing their nuclear facilities. It would probably be dificult to end if anyone did it now. Last report I hear they had at least eight nuclear facilities in hardened strutures, some of them in heavily populated areas, so bombing their reactors will kill a lot of people.

[AllentownJake]

7. and set off a World War in the Middle East

[Ozymanithrax]

8. Militarily, I think Israel is convinced they could win a conventional war...

But a nuclear Iran will lead very fast to a Nuclear Saudi Arabia (they are stratigic competitors), nuclear Egypt, and Nuclear Turkey. All three could make a bomb relativly fast. Islam is not this happy club with everyone loving each other in the name of the prophet. Sunni and Shia Islam have been fierce enemies, and are not trusting of each other now.

[AllentownJake]

9. Yep

but they all hate Israel.

[Ozymanithrax]

10. Totalitarian government find a hated enemy the best way to keep their people in line...

Nor does Israel help with its extreme fear of everyone attacking them.

[RZM]

12. That's true

But they don't all necessarily fear Israel. The Saudis fear Iran a whole lot more. That's partly why Iran wants a bomb, to throw their weight around and show the Arabs who's boss in the region.

[KonaKane]

2. That big scary Eye Ran again.

America's new boogeyman. Or, old boogeyman. I cannot keep track.

[Swamp Rat]

3. I doubt it

If they do, then goodbye Iran.

:nuke:

[shadowknows69]

5. Well, at least I'll get to have a birthday before Armageddon.

Silver lining and all.

[Hippo_Tron]

11. I would argue no

Testing puts political pressure on Israel and the US to respond with military force. Even if they actually do make a bomb, not testing would seem a better route. Israeli and US intelligence will estimate that there is a bomb, creating a deterrent to keep them from attacking. But this intelligence doesn't have to be shared with the public and thus there won't be political pressure on US and Israeli leaders to attack.

Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, and North Korea have all pursued the ambiguity strategy at some point and a large part of the reason was allow US political leaders the freedom to look the other way given that nobody could give a compelling argument that the threat of them crossing the threshold was imminent. North Korea, IMO, abandoned their ambiguity because they were so worried that the Bush Administration were a bunch of crazy warmongers that they felt they had to show them for certain that they had a nuclear deterrent.