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Martha Coakley will win on Tuesday.

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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:33 PM
Original message
Martha Coakley will win on Tuesday.
Bank it.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
1. I am not as sanguine. hope you're right.
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Gman2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
2. If thats the case, we wont know that day. It's close!
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
3. "Bank it" is probably the wrong qualifier, but I agree she will win.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
4. From your keyboard to God's inbox. nt
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
5. Why do you say that?
Is that just a hunch? Most of recent polls show her falling further behind.
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. See post 12
Most of those polls are crap. Watch the Globe's numbers.
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villager Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
6. Always good seeing a Republican lose. What's the blanket statement based on, Will?
for us out-of-staters...
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. Few things
1. Dems outnumber Repubs 3-1 in MA.

2. Brown's best hope was low turnout. Thanks to all the national attention, they're expecting turnout to be at or around 70%. That's absurdly high for an off-year election.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. and independents outnumber dems. indies are breaking by a greater
than 2 to 1 margin for brown. rothenburg has just predicted a comfortable win for brown. hope he's wrong and you're right, but.....
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ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. But Have You Taken Into Account That There Are More Independents Than
Democrats in Ma? I KNOW it's your state, but the demographics from MSNBC this AM says it depends on Indy's who are upset with Obama.

What's the skinny on the Indy's?
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burning rain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #6
24. Coded communique from ACORN high command.
:D
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:36 PM
Response to Original message
7. I think so too but it will be close... too close..
but I like your confidence! :fistbump:
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #7
52. Me too..
So much better than doom & gloom. We'll find out soon enough :fistbump:
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Greybnk48 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
8. Agreed.
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meegbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
9. THANK YOU!
A positive post for a change!
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RBInMaine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
10. It is ALL GOTV. If the Dems comeout big, we win. If not, the asshat gets it. Plain and simple.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Yup - and clean-up from today's storm will be a problem to turnout tomorrow
:(
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #10
40. bingo
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Orrex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
11. If she doesn't, then I can't wait to start blaming Massachusetts for everything.
They're the reason my hub bearing went bad, for instance.
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dana_b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:42 PM
Original message
from your lips.... n/t
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Lex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
20. yes
that what I immediately thought too

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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
16. thx for the "on the ground" report, Will!N/t
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
18. I think you are right
But it so depends on the "pull" that is done in the areas inside Rt 128. (Well, if 128 and 495 can determine snow fall amounts, they can determine election results.)

Out here in the wilderness areas of MA, beyond 495, I think there will be a heavy vote for Brown. This area tends to vote for Repubs in big elections anyway. (Check the MASSstats map for the 2002 election and check out Galvin's Secretary of State website to see where MA votes "red.")

This article is a very good background read on Massachusetts and what it's like here. (Read it with the knowledge that these regions are not hard and fast and bleed into each other.) We are not and never were a completely liberal state. We have and have always had Republican regions. (The town of Boxford Ma hasn't voted Dem in a big race in decades, if not a century, for instance.)
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leftygolfer Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
19. I believe
I have no dog in the fight in terms of Massachusetts - but the bigger fight means everything to me.
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. There is reason to believe
I still think that women are being undercounted as a motivating force in this election. More women than men tend to vote in MA and there is a still a strong motivation among women to go out and vote for Marther.
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Tailormyst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
22. I hope you are right Will
I am not so confident.
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Liberal_Stalwart71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
23. Speaking of banking, I have been phone banking from the great BLUE state of Maryland
throughout the weekend and all morning. (I needed a break.) Waking up to the HuffingtonPost news that Brown is ahead is earth shattering to me. Why? Because the phone banking didn't go that badly. I had more Coakley supporters, some Brown supporters, some undecideds (I don't understand that!). But by and large, the responses were largely in favor of Coakley. That's why it seems odd that the M$M is cheerleading for Brown. Doesn't seem to comport with my experience.
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
25. I want to believe so.
It's unimaginable that MA would elect a republic US Senator.
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peace frog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. ...in Teddy's seat, no less
Unfathomable.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #26
42. True, but LOTS of people are swayed by a "pretty face"
and after decades of having an aging man (no matter how good for them he was). many people do look beyond their own core beliefs and want a "fresh face"..

We know he's nothing but a good-looking creep, but he's clever, and has a smooth way of talking to people, and has nothing to lose...so he might actually win :(

Martha may be great, but she looks school-marm-ish, and she had an heir-apparent style to her.. People don't like that.

Politics is so much like high school dating.. We all know that the ones with the great personality ..the smart ones.. are the best people for us, bu how many of us keep getting tangled up with the great looking ones who break our hearts over and over and over? :(

They don't make movies about the cute girl fawning all over the president of the photography club...or about the football team captain scheming to get a date with that girl in chemistry class..

We have a football captain/head cheerleader mentality.. It sucks but it's true.

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Lex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #42
49. Sadly this is so true
"Politics is so much like high school dating."

Yes, I'm afraid so.

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AzDar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
27. If it's a clean election, she will.
Which means, unfortunately, that 'Health Care Reform' will most likely pass.
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ElmoBlatz Donating Member (149 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
28. Probably
But why is this even remotely close?
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Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
29. intrade has it 63-36 for the nude model
they're pretty accurate.
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Soylent Brice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
30. i certainly hope you're right. if not, it'll be a HUGE black eye for the whole party.
i see dire consequences in the event of a loss.

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Carni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. As well as a bunch of obnoxious crowing by the GOP
I will not be watching any pundits for several weeks if she doesn't win, because the gloat factor will be intolerable!
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Terra Alta Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
32. yes she will.
gotta focus on the positive... there has been too much negative on DU lately! I simply can't believe the same state that gave us JFK and Ted Kennedy will put someone like Brown in the Senate.
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Shrek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
33. If you're serious about "banking" it
Then you should head over to Intrade. The Coakley contract will pay off at around 2-to-1 if you're right.

http://www.intrade.com
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lurknomore Donating Member (17 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
34. What's your record on predictions?
Did you predict the NJ loss? (just wondering)

Keep hope alive !!!
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lapislzi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
35. I hope and believe you're right, but...
the rest of the country's progressives are seriously rattled by a horse race that should have been a slam dunk...and not necessarily in the good way. I hope we learn some hard lessons from this.
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MineralMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
36. I agree, but only if the turnout of Dems is good, so I'm not
willing to bet the bank on it yet. The GOTV effort must continue through tomorrow.
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blaze Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
37. Who's counting the votes?
Just curious.
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rox63 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
38. I think you're right, but it may be a squeakah...
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
39. 60-40
But I'm looking to move up.
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #39
41. I doubt that
I think a replica of the 96 result might happen with a 5-7% win for Martha
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davsand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #39
43. Will, have you been on the ground there or talked to anyone who is?
I've always found that the folks ON the ground usually have a pretty good feel for this stuff. Yes, there IS the problem with excess optimism, but I know you (and your family history!) well enough to know you have been in this situation a few times before. You can interpret the reports better than most...

IS that 60-40 margin optimism or something else? I am seriously hoping it is based in some solid polling or equally valid information that most of us have not seen yet.



Laura
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #43
47. I'm in downtown Boston
and have been swimming in this race long before 90% of the DU punditry even knew it was happening. I'm actually getting a kick out of all the high-flown opinionating going on around here, because maybe 1% of the opinions evince any knowledge whatsoever about on-the-ground Massachusetts politics. This race is turning on a lot of MA factors unique to the state. It's not a grand statement on anything other than the vagaries of local politics.

The 60-40 thing was an answer to the question about how good I am at predictions. I'm right more often than wrong, but am wrong enough to make me a shaky bet. :)
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
44. i'm with you will. the media has swiftboated us again
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graywarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 02:43 PM
Response to Original message
45. I believe you.
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 02:53 PM
Response to Original message
46. I'm concerned that weather may hurt turnout and that the republican zeal may be greater
than the Democrats'.
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ProudToBeBlueInRhody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
48. Will, I really, really want to believe you
That's all I can say.
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Nye Bevan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
50. I hope you're right, but
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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
51. you trust banks?
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Bleacher Creature Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
53. If you're right, I will bow down to you and be your slave.
Even though you are a Red Sox fan . . .
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arthritisR_US Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
54. oh I like your thinking! :-) n/t
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CoffinEd Donating Member (248 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
55. I hope so
I did my part earlier today. I filled in the oval for Coakley (although Capuano was my man in the primaries) and we'll see what happens.
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harkadog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 09:24 PM
Response to Original message
56. Hope people didn't bank too much.
Of course I'm just one of the DUers outside of MA who "doesn't know anything about MA politics". OK.
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Lex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #56
57. ouch
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nomaco-10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 09:36 PM
Response to Original message
58. So says you.....
You've never taken on the rightwing element, EVER around here.


We'll all sink to our knees and pray Martha Coakley wins, to spite your simplified all knowing, cheerleading efforts.


I'm not your biggest fan, and never have been, but I've had years to figure all that shit out.
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Better Believe It Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-19-10 10:21 PM
Response to Original message
59. K & R
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wpelb Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-20-10 11:51 AM
Response to Original message
60. So much for banking on it
It looks like most of the polls were pretty close to accurate. Personally, I thought it would be closer, with the outcome in doubt for several days, perhaps weeks, with Florida 2000-style recounts.
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deaniac21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-20-10 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
61. May 12! May 12!
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