Let's Get Real: Future Iraq Scenarios & Why An Extra 100 bn Barrels of Iraqi Oil Means Lots More War

[Dems Will Win]

Al-Maliki Has Engineered the Break-Up of Iraq by Spring 2008

Let's Get Real!

The Surge is a deliberate failure because the Iraqi Parliament is a deliberate failure. Bushco wants war in Iraq, it wants war in Iraq for a least another decade.

Bushco invaded Iraq to keep the oil IN THE GROUND. Despite the law passed by the Iraqi Parliament that allows Western oil companies to grab up to 60% of the oil revenue in some contracts, Bushco intends that as little oil as possible be pumped out of the ground in Iraq.

The news that an extra 100 billion barrels of oil lies underneath the western desert in Iraq means a lot more war to come -- a war to keep the price of oil high for Bushco's Saudi overlords.

If the 200 billion barrels in Iraq and the 125 billion barrels in Iran were to ever come to the market, oil would plummet down to the $20 range again.

And oh that pesky Iraqi Parliament. Al-Maliki is actually a radical Shia, who in October 2006, defied a boycott of the Sunnis and passed 200 laws making possible a series of Spring 2008 Referendums in each of the three regions of Iraq. What would these referendums do?

Essentially split the power controlling Iraq into 3 autonomous governments. And each one would have control of the oil in their region, with the Sunnis having no oil in production (but that new western desert find IS in Anbar).

The US media NEVER reported this fact. The 200 laws of October 2006 were passed 140-0. The Sunnis boycotted!

Imagine if the West Coast, the Midwest, the South and the Northeast had passed 200 Laws that allowed the breaking up of the US into 4 regional governments. And that the Republicans had passed the laws while the Democrats boycotted the vote because they knew they could not win and wanted to make a statement.

The US media to this day have never reported any of the October debacle -- and for good reason. It means the Surge is a much worse idea than we thought and that political compromise is not possible without some dramatic breakthrough in negotiations between Sunni and Shia.

This is perfect for the Bushco plan and why they never did anything to stop al-Maliki in October. Endless war is on the horizon -- even after withdrawal in 2009 -- as well-funded Shia and Sunni sects battle it out in Baghdad and Southern Iraq for the oil around Basra.

The Sunni Baathists of course want all of Iraq back and will not be satisfied with the new oil in the west. The Shia in Iran already have enough oil revenue they figure and they are not about to let the Iraqi Shia have those super-giant fields. Since they are the trained military, the Sunnis ahve a tremendous military advantage despite the large numbers of Shia ragtag militia. The Sunnis are also well-funded by the Saudis. The Shia, in turn, could still have American air support and maybe even Marines and mercenaries to help hold onto the southern oilfields for years to come.

With 270,000 soldiers and mercenaries on the American side, the stalemate will easily continue for sometime (with ever more horrifying result).

None of that matters to Bushco. Just as long as that cheap oil stays in the ground and Iraqi production continues limping along at around 1.5 million bpd. The fact that 30% of the oil is waylaid by the Shia is OK with them too, as it lets the Shia sects compete in weaponry and ammunition with the Saudi-funded Sunnis.

In short, what is being presented as incompetence and unplanned chaos in Iraq is a complete and total falsehood. What is happening is in fact a deliberate plan by Bushco to create destruction, chaos and pipeline bombings TO KEEP THE OIL IN THE GROUND.

So everybody doesn't have to feel bad that Americans are jsut big incompetent Fuck-ups. No sir, if the Iraqi chaos is deliberate then we still have that knack for good old American know-how. That can-do attitude, where we get the job done. For Bushco, Plan A is working out extremely well and right on schedule. By March 2008, endless war could be irreversible, as the referendums take place, and some Americans perhaps start to withdraw (not likely).

Knowing all this this is the most likely future scenario for Iraq:

MOST LIKELY FUTURE SCENARIO: The escalation and Surge continue, keeping the chaos at an even boil and keep oil production nicely below 2 million bpd. The referendums split the nation into 3 in Spring 2008 and the violence increases. Bush refuses to budge, figuring he will get to January 20 2009 and then perhaps McCain or Giuliani or another Bushco GOP President keep the Global War on Cheap Oil (the GWOCO) going for another four years. If the GOP loses the White House, and Hillary is not the Dem President, funds from Iran and Saudi Arabia will keep the war going for years anyway, although the Sunnis then have an excellent chance of re-taking all of Iraq from Bushco, especially with help in the north from Turkish invasion.

(The Turks are already making incursions across the border to fight the Kurds in northwest Iraq.)

MOST UNLIKELY FUTURE SCENARIO: The escalation and Surge eventually reduce the violence while the White House convinces the Shia and al-Maliki to make a deal, given the extra Western Desert 100 billion barrels in Sunni territory. All oil revenue will thus be shared. Through a miracle of Allah Himself, the Sunni accept this deal instead of fighting for that which had previously been 100% theirs. The fighting ends overnight with the announcement of the deal, except for al-Queda in Iraq, who are eventually hunted down and eliminated by the Sunnis, Shia and American mercenaries and soldiers together. The referendums are never held and peace finally comes to Iraq and Iran.
Iraqi oil production goes above 2 million bpd as the Saudis fold their hand and let the Shia get rich.

The following is evidence why Bushco inexplicably wants war for the foreseeable future: production could easily reach 6 million bpd if the fighting stopped! And for $2 a barrel! This si what scares the Saudi royals out of their wits and why our men and women are dying in Iraq. It's not Blood for Oil, it's Blood for Expensive Oil!

From today in Gulf News:

Iraq oil 'can be tapped for less than $2 a barrel if strife ends'

London: Iraq's promising oilfields can be tapped for less than $2 a barrel and could double the nation's output to 4 million barrels a day in five years provided security improves, IHS consultancy said.

The company's Iraq Atlas, to be released on May 9, pegs Iraq's oil reserves at 116 billion barrels, in line with industry estimates, and says there could be a further 100 billion barrels lying beneath its western desert.

"Iraq's reserves are clearly phenomenal. Once the infrastructure is in place, the oil will come out of the ground quite cheaply," said Ron Mobed, president and chief operating officer of IHS.

...

Access to Iraqi reserves, the world's third biggest, is sought keenly by major oil firms, but they await ratification of Iraq's oil law. The legislation will be presented to parliament next week, though the Kurdish region rejects some elements of it.

"Iraq is moving very rapidly towards an encouragement of foreign investment - especially compared to other huge reserve holders in the region where access is essentially nil," said Mobed.

Oil production in Iraq is stuck at around two million barrels per day (bpd), well down on the nearly three million bpd hit in the final days of Saddam and even further from the 3.7 million bpd pumped in 1979, prior to the Iran-Iraq war.

But Mobed was confident that flows would ramp up quickly once investment was made.

"Doubling Iraq's production capacity in the next five years doesn't feel like a stretch. It's just a matter of opening up what's been shut in and bringing on improvements to the remainder."

IHS says the country's production in the mid-term could reach six million bpd.

Mohammad Zine, IHS regional manager for the Middle East, said sanctions and wars had taken their toll on Iraq's workhorse oilfields - Kirkuk in the north and Rumaila in the south.

...

Most of Iraq's proven oil reserves are in the Shi'ite south and the Kurdish north. That has left Sunni Arabs in central and western Iraq fearful that autonomous deals by those regions would cut them out of Iraq's oil wealth.

But Zine said the centre of the country also held prized oilfields such as East Baghdad.

...

Kirkuk has the ability to produce more than 600,000 bpd but is pumping only 350,000 bpd, while the Rumaila oilfields could crank out at least one million bpd.

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Oil_and_Gas/10119421.html

Please remember to recommend if you think this important.

[whistle]

1. 100 billion barrels of oil so far has cost $474 billion, 3316 U.S. killed

....27,378 wounded, 658,000 Iraqis killed and almost certainly another $1.75 trillion if we remain to get a Bush victory. I guess Big Oil sees this as a small price to pay if Americans continue to pay the bill both from our taxes and at the gas pumps

[Dems Will Win]

2. What does the American Blood For Oil Index stand at?

3316 X 4 pints of blood / 6 million barrels pumped since 2003 = 452 US Pints per Barrel

or 8.22 Pints Per Gallon!

So today's current PPG is 8.22 US pints...

[Dems Will Win]

3. Jeez how much is 6 million barrels since 2003 per dollar??

[whistle]

6. 6,000,000 barrels of oil divided into $474 billion = $79,000.00 per barrel

...or $1,755.55 per gallon of crude oil which would mean $5,846.00 per gallon of gasoline

[Jcrowley]

4. Let's bump this

K&R

[Dems Will Win]

5. Thanks

[chknltl]

7. Fascinating...I think this makes pretty good sense so far.

Reccomended and Kicked

[chknltl]

8. Should we expect another shock and awe catastrophe

...to hit a minor Iraqi oilfield soon? If the bfee did that AND made it appear to be a "ter-rist" attack then they potentially would be able to show just cause to "secure" the rest of Iraq's oil fields militarily. Nothing amazes me anymore about these guys, their schemes far out-pace any I can come up with even while wearing lots of tin foil!

[chknltl]

9. So this begs the question:

What was saddam hussein planning on doing with his oil reserves prior to 9-11. IF he was planning on flooding the market and thereby driving prices down.... wasn't there some kind of restrictions placed on him preventing him from doing this?...This needs further study

[Jcrowley]

10. Kick