Dow Jones up nearly 4,000 points in 8 months-stunning rise

[Politics_Guy25]

It's November 16th and with the Santa Claus bounce that the Dow usually gets I wouldn't be surprised to see 11,000 by the end of the year. This is quite simply staggering and spectacular news. It bottomed out at 6,500 on March 9th and has risen 3,900 points in just 8 months. I think that this is probably the largest 1 year point gain in history. It's what, 10,415 now? Many of you may recall that the Dow started violent plunges in July/August of 2007 really that heralded the beginning of the recession which is now deemed to have started in December of 2007. The Dow rising to this extent this year is probably indicating that we are about to enter a fairly decent economic expansion. It would be treading water at around 7500-8000 I think if we weren't headed towards some fairly good times. Unemployment took 16 months to crash after the summer of 2007 early warnings of the stock market. So, we're probably looking at 15-16 months from March of 2009 when the Dow began its surge before unemployment drops, which incidentally, would be August/September of 2010 and just in time for the midterms. XD.

No one would have thought on March 9 as the Dow seemed locked in a death spiral that it would have recovered to this extent but here it is. Think of the seniors, of the young families saving for their children to go to college, for the couple just about to retire. They are seeing a very nice bounce-back in their 401K.

This is a tremendously important economic acheivement for the Obama administration. Their #1 economic achievement so far. I think even the most optimistic just saw Dow 9,000 at most by years end back in March. And, as the Dow's 2008 crash heralded an employment crash, its stunning rise in mid to late 2009, probably heralds an economic and employment surge.

[rockymountaindem]

1. Be prepared to get shredded

but I'm not complaining.

[vadawg]

2. me neither but ill see where it is in 20 years.....

so as im buying now id rather it stays low so i can get more bang for my buck, and then have it skyrocket when i start to take funds... :)

[Politics_Guy25]

5. It'll have peaks and valleys over the next 20 years

And it'll go down again sometime in the next 20 years for sure. I just think it's spectacular news now because we're all looking for signs that the recession is truly over and I don't think the Dow would be on a run to this extent if things were still catastrophic. What's even more important is that it's at 10,400 NOW with trillions of dollars on the sidelines. Imagine what the Dow will soar to once that sideline investment kicks in?

[vadawg]

7. yeah, well i guess im letting my 401K and pension ride anyway so im not botheres

i couldnt even tell you how much i lost last year or how mutch ive gained this year....

[paulsby]

if you think the market is going down, then profit from it

iow, short it. i did.

the general rule applies. buy panic, sell euphoria

[Warpy]

22. No kidding

but I'm in it for the income and not the net worth. I don't want to use it to leverage debt, especially now, and I know the current market is an illusion, propped up by foreign investors taking advantage of the cheap dollar to pick up bargains.

The next few years will be interesting. Unless Obama follows China's advice and shores up the dollar, the Dow will stay up. If the dollar climbs against the Euro, the foreign investors will dump their stock and take their profit and the Dow will lay another egg.

I sincerely hope the country takes at least part of China's advice and raises revenue by bringing back a more progressive tax structure.

This country will continue to race to the bottom unless he does.

[mucifer]

3. I'm still hoping for a decent robust jobs program. Waiting for that green jobs promise.

[Selatius]

4. The S&P 500 is a far better barometer of the economy than the Dow.

Because the S&P has a far larger basket of stocks that are listed, and the stocks are in companies spread wide over the US economy. 500 companies are listed on it. The Dow, in contrast, only lists 30.

[Politics_Guy25]

8. Very true

But Dow is a good indicator as well, as its' massive 750 point drops day after day last year told us that a massive unprecedented recession was coming so it's a good barometer.

At this point, I'm watching it in amazement wondering how high can it go. Back in March, I expected a mediocre stock market for years.

[DaveinJapan]

19. It only dropped more than 700 points ONCE. (777 to be exact) nt

[mucifer]

10. seems like overall the s and p has been doing better in the past few months But,

I still want a decent green jobs program.

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--

[A HERETIC I AM]

15. Both the S&P 500 and the DJIA are up about 38% from their March lows.

Even though the Dow is only 30 stocks, it does compare very closely in many ways with the S&P 500.

[cliffordu]

6. I'm sorry, but I believe this is all high stakes poker and "financial instruments"

you won't get any real solid ground in any economy without jobs and housing.

Unless the short term grab is the goal.

[HughMoran]

9. Grabbing back 80% of my losses isn't such a bad idea

Thinking...

[Politics_Guy25]

12. That's the one thing in the back of my mind

I hope it isn't a fall 2007 run up to 14,000 repeat. If by April of 2010, unemployment is still soaring or at 10.2-10.3% or higher, then we will all know that the Dow is a joke. This is a good test.

Of course, the structural problems in the US economy remain and must be addressed for long-term health but no serious expert argues tackling those right now in the heart of the crisis.

[defendandprotect]

18. And NOT without RE-REGULATING CAPITALISM . .. FINANCIAL MARKETS --!!!

[ShamelessHussy]

11. and isn't it strange how there isn't a PEEP in M$M, it's mostly a 'DEBATE' about how O is DESTROYING

capitalism :crazy:

he is SAVING their wretched, collective, a$$es right now... but if he doesn't get around to main st. (jobs, strong public option, regulation of wall st) before the end of his first term, he will be a long shot in 2012.

[defendandprotect]

13. Simply amazing what trillions upon trillions of taxpayer $$ can do for the market/Wall St -- !!!!

:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[A HERETIC I AM]

16. So now it's "Trillions upon trillions"?

Might as well go for broke and say the taxpayer has put a Quintillion dollars into the market.

Screw those who complain that you jumped right over the quadrillions.

[defendandprotect]

17. Total bail outs were $8-$12 trillion and I think more to come?

Is Bernanke going to tell us where he put much of the Fed $$$??

I'm not sure of where it went -- is anyone?

But the minimum was trillions and trillions --

[A HERETIC I AM]

20. Where are you getting those figures?

Do you think the Federal Reserve and/or the Treasury just simply wrote checks for all that money and got nothing in return?

Really, is that what you think?

[defendandprotect]

31. Where have you been? What do you think the bail out cost?????

[Romulox]

29. It's ALWAYS been "trillions upon trillions". Read a newspaper, for the love of god.

:eyes:

[renate]

14. I remember reading all these articles a year ago...

... about retirees who thought they were looking at having to work for the next five or ten years to make up for their 401(k) losses. I know it's been a fairly jobless recovery so far, and that still hurts just as much as ever for people who are at the beginning or in the middle of their careers, but the rebound in the market really does have an impact on millions of ordinary people--not just rich capitalists but regular retirees.

[Art_from_Ark]

21. It is easy to go up

when you not only have tons of money being injected into you by Uncle Sam, but you also can kick out underperformers like Citibank and GM in the meantime.

[FarLeftFist]

23. Fuck the Dow Jones

[Vinnie From Indy]

24. The gains in the Dow are directly related to Govt. bailouts and job cuts

Wall Street rewards companies for sending high paying American jobs to third world countries. They reward the companies that have their work done by child and slave labor in countries where environmental regulation and enforcement is non-existent.

In short, the gains on Wall Street are being paid for by throwing Americans out of jobs.

[onenote]

27. here is a list of the best performing stocks in the 3rd quarter: which use "slave and child" labor

Since you seem to be the expert:
http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Best_Performing_Stocks_Third_Quarter.html

[KharmaTrain]

25. Looks Like People Were Wishing For Even Worse...

I can understand it for the many who are barely getting by...misery loves company. Been there myself. However, the fact is this country was headed to a financial catastrophe had the market crashed further than it did and couldn't recover. There would be 25% unemployment rather than the 10% we have now (still not good) and there'd be millions of elderly and others who live on market-based pensions that would be wiped out. The foreclosure mess would have been far worse as would the drop of government services as all revenues would come to a halt. Colleges surely would have closed or severely limited enrollment and it would make any financial turnaround a lot difficult.

Yes...some of that bailout money went to the investor class...the little guys who live off their pensions or portfolios or use that money to invest in new businesses. The rise of the market back over 10,000 is a positive move as it's gotten money moving again...the first key step to a recovery. There's still more to go and in some areas there are still going to be bankruptcies and defaults, but we're in better shape today than we were a year ago. For conservative investors/savers, their lifelong savings were hit but not wiped out. Again, the alternative would have been a nation fully paralyzed and demands on that the federal government would be hard-pressed to deal with.

[NNN0LHI]

26. We had people here saying "Just wait until it hits 3000"

I didn't forget those fools.

Don

[cbdo2007]

28. Exactly. That just shows you....don't get your stock advice from DU.

Or even expect very much intelligent economic discussion around here. :)

[Romulox]

30. Unrec. Recovery for Wall Street is on the back of the US taxpayer. nt

[DU GrovelBot]

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