New Delaware statewide poll shows Democrat Beau Biden leading Rep Mike Castle

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NEW DELAWARE STATEWIDE POLL SHOWS DEMOCRAT BEAU BIDEN LEADING CON. MIKE CASTLE

(Harrisburg Pa., November 16) – Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc., a Harrisburg, PA-based survey research and political polling firm, today released the results of an independent statewide poll testing voters’ early attitudes and preferences towards the 2010 open seat election for U.S. Senate in Delaware, as well as key issues facing the state. The automated poll was conducted November 10 – 15 with 850 registered likely voters, with calls made from a statewide voter registration list exclusively among voters who cast ballots in either the 2008 or 2006 general elections. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.36% at the 95% confidence level. Top line results are included with this release.

In a hypothetical match-up of the candidates, Democrat Beau Biden leads GOP challenger and Delaware Congressman Mike Castle by a margin of 45 to 40 percent; 8% are undecided and 6% say would vote for another candidate. This 5-point lead for Biden, which is statistically significant because it is outside the poll’s 3.36% margin of error, marks the first time in publicly-released surveys that Biden has held the lead. It also represents a significant shift in support for Biden compared to our April survey which showed Castle with a 21-point lead, mainly due to Biden’s increased support with critical independent voters which make up nearly 1 in 4 voters in Delaware. A second explanation for the shift away from Castle in the current poll may be a result of negative publicity he received in the state after casting a “no” vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress. The current poll was conducted 11/10 – 11/15, the week immediately following the weekend when the U.S. House of Representatives voted on this landmark legislation.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/SP%26RDelawarePollNov09.pdf