Can the Repubs do to us in 2010 what we did to them in 2006?

[eridani]

Hard to tell at this point. If they ramp up the assholism, that may counter their advantage in attacking a health care bill with no visible benefits for anyone until 2013.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2010080329_sirota19.html

Recall that with solid Democratic and Republican backing, the 2002 Iraq resolution was far more "bipartisan" than any health-care bill will ever be. Yet, Democrats turned right around and used the Iraq war to criticize Republicans — and because the conflict was so wildly unpopular, Americans in 2006 and 2008 were willing to overlook the contradiction and vote for the only major party echoing any semblance of an antiwar message.

The lesson, then, is simple: If Democrats hypocritical Iraq criticism only worked because the war was such a disaster, then the GOP's inevitable health-care attacks — however hypocritical — can be thwarted only by making health-care reform the opposite of Iraq (i.e., a major success). For Democrats, in other words, good health-care policy is great politics, and bad policy is the worst politics.

Whether passed by one congressional vote or 50, real reform that improves the system (i.e., a bill with a public option, tough insurance regulation and universal coverage) will transform the Democratic Party into an election-winning force forever known as "the generous protector of middle-class interests," as GOP strategist William Kristol admits.

Conversely, even if passed unanimously, bad legislation that makes the system worse (i.e., a bill empowering insurance companies, preventing a public option and leaving millions uncovered) will make GOP criticism of Democrats extremely effective.

[liberal N proud]

1. Why do you think they have become the party of NO?

They think that total opposition, polarizing the nation is the best way to regain power.

People need to be reminded over and over again, what the 8 12 years of Republican rule caused.

[eridani]

3. The issue here is how much popular dissatisfaction there will be about health care

If a significant block of people can get on Medicare right now, their yammering will be for naught. If no benefits kick in until 2013, health care reform will be extremely unpopular. Popular discontent with Iraq was taken out on Repubs, and popular discontent with health care will be taken out on Dems.

[zbdent]

2. yes, with the blessing and the co-operation of the "liberal media" ...

and don't forget, the "oil speculation" will be ramping it up again ...

[KharmaTrain]

4. They're Still On The Skids...

While Democrats faced "extinction" after the '04 elections with a smaller minority in the House and nearing that scary 60 vote veto-proof Senate (it still makes me shudder to think how close we came to giving boooosh an even bigger blank check). Going into 2006, Democrats had begun to unite in both their opposition to the booosh regime as well as getting tired of losing elections. The netroots began to emerge as more than a curiosity into a source to organize and fund campaigns and the party came together like I hadn't seen in decades...getting out and outworking the rushpublicans.

The GOOP is still in decendency...unable to come to grips with reality and moving further away from the "mainstream". They're fighting among themselves as to who is a "true" CONservative and still avoid taking any responsibilities for the messes of the past 30 years. They have no real proposals other than fear and hate. They've also lost many moderates and a generation of young voters. Those polls the other day showing the GOOP "enjoying" 20% approval is the tip of the iceberg...the divisions are deep and could open the door to a third party or two in 2012.

That said, Democratic gains next year will be tough...many of the current GOOP are in crimson red districts and there are sure to be some strong challenges against some of the weaker Democrats. No way do I see the GOOP making serious gains and they could even lose more in the Senate as they have more seats to defend and some pretty weak candidates...pick ups could happen in Missouri and New Hampshire (yes, I think Hodes can do it).

To use the analogy, the GOOP has gutted their "farm system"...they have few real attractive candidates that have been mismanaged for the better part of the past 16 years. If Democrats are successful in passing healthcare reform and the economy begins to improve, the GOOP is toast.

[eridani]

8. You are ignoring the fact that people are really going to hate health care reform as now proposed

Yes, everyone likes the idea of a public option. What do you think will happen when they discover that NOTHING CHANGES UNTIL 2013? What if people find that they will be forced to pay 10-12% of their income to private insurance that and that they are STILL on the hook for 30% of their costs? And that they will flat out not even be allowed into the public option unless they are one of the qualifying 5% minority?

[Mudoria]

5. Only if the economy takes a downturn or the jobless rate fails to fall

I expect we will lose some seats, that always happens in the off year elections when one party is in control. But we need to make sure to minimize the losses as much as possible. For my part I can't understand why someone would vote the party that ran Congress from 1994-2006 back in power when the consequences of that are pretty self-evident today.

[Toots]

6. No you are completely leaving out the pummeling Democrats took in '94

For almost a decade Democrats were running scared. They really believed America did not want what they were offering. That is why they went along with Republicans in the early years of the Bush* Administration. Republicans do not believe they are in the minority of Americans. They still believe that the "True America" the "Heartland" wants them to behave in the manner they are. Democrats accepted their defeat as real and worked to change America's mind about them. Republicans are not doing that and because of that they will suffer even greater losses in the future. America wants some semblance of sanity and Republican do not offer that. America wants leadership. Democrats offer that and Republicans do not.

[eridani]

7. I did say that Repub assholism will work against them

But Sirota's basic point remains. If health care reform does not produce at least some visible benefits starting next year, it will be a heavy millstone hanging on Dem electoral prospects We can't count on pure Repub stupidity carrying the day for us.

[redqueen]

9. Ending the exemption of pre-existing conditions

and the practice of recission should count as visible benefits, though, right?

[eridani]

13. So what if they have to take you--

--with a pre-existing condition if they can charge any damned price that they want? And if they can't formally rescind, they will do what any boss who wants to get rid of you but can't ding you on performance issues does--make your life as miserable as possible. They still have all the power, including the power to turn down claims.

[lpbk2713]

10. I don't think there are that many that lean that way any more.

Probably the only thing for which I am thankful to the corrupt and evil BushCo Regime.

[Xithras]

11. If the Baucus bill passes? I'd be suprised if it didn't.

The insurance companies have already the elimination of pre-existing conditions exemptions will cause the average cost of healthcare to climb even further, and the congressional budget office has demonstrated that it will do nothing to reduce costs. Joe Average will simply see his own insurance get more expensive, and will see his 22 year old college graduate son, who barely makes it in the first place, suddenly get slammed with more than $10,000 in annual healthcare costs as the government forces him to get coverage.

Yeah, Joe Average isn't going to be too happy. The people who can suddenly get coverage certainly will be, and while there may be a lot of them, there aren't nearly enough to carry an election.

What we need is a bill that benefits everyone, right away, without increasing out of pocket costs.

[eridani]

14. Yep. People who are both really rich and really sick will like it

Not nearly enough of them to make a difference politically.

[Robbins]

12. No

This will not be 1994 redux In 2010.Do I see Democratic loses.Yes.15 to 20 Blue Dog Democrats from
Mccain districts will likely lose.Democrats will lose some Governorships(Likely Michigan,Wisconsin,and
PA) and could win some(Likely California,Arizona,and possabily Nevada) while the Senate races could
be determinded by Obama's national standings In 2010.Many of the senate races are In States won by
Obama.You have a possable Democratic pick up In barely Mccain state of Missouri,and then only Kentuckey
and Arkansas have competive senate races In Mccain states.

Remember Helath care reform with a public opotion(even with a opt out clause opotion) will excite the
base.And with money going to small business and crackdown on bonus can help Democrats.

Remember at one time people thought 2002 would be good for Democrats.No generat Ballot(besides RAS)
has Republicans In the lead even though I am skeptical of them.

While we will take a beating In Virginia,and Bloomberg will be reelected NY Mayor,Corzine will likely
be reelected NJ governor,and Owens will win the NY-23 special Election.

[eridani]

15. The base will quickly get unexcited when they realize that they aren't allowed

--to actually use the public option. Sure other factors for us may well be positive, but unless we start letting people voluntarily into Medicare, health care will be a negative.

[AllentownJake]

16. Simple answer if unemployment is above 9%

We get our ass kicked. If it is under 9% we win big.