The gubernatorial race in Virginia is really making me nervous

[theHandpuppet]

McConnell has widened his lead in the polls over Deeds 55 to 44%. I'm hoping like hell this isn't an example of what's in store for us elsewhere in the country --- McConnell is a RW nutbag and I thought Dems finally had a pretty solid hold on Virginia. Is this a case of a weak Dem candidate or more ominously, sign of a conservative backlash? This implications are really worrying me. How are other races looking in your areas of the country, DUers? Is there some good news to report?

[imdjh]

1. Which one is taller and has blue eyes? nt

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. Probably a little of both.

It's an off year election, and like it or not, the most typical voters during those are not Democratic ones. Further, Creigh Deeds seems like an extremely weak candidate. He's failing miserably at getting NoVa on board. I know way more about what McDonnell will do than what Deeds will, which is also a problem. While I think Deeds' attack ads are effective, he needs at least some talking about what he'll do for the state or he'll sink. I don't necessarily think this is a bellweather kind of election, but it's not good.

[imdjh]

3. I know it sounds petty, but that how marketing is. The man should have changed his name years ago.

If he intended to run for public office, he should have changed his name to "Bob" when he first decided to run for dog catcher. You don't name restaurants words that people can't spell phonetically, and you don't run for public officer as Siobhan Ryan, you change your name to Joan.

[lillypaddle]

6. Yeah, and if your name is Barack Obama

you might as well forget public office! :silly:

[imdjh]

11. Well, aren't you clever.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

16. I've got a long, ethnic last name, and I'd change it if I were running for office.

So I hear ya.

[vadawg]

4. deeds isnt coming across as someone who will work for virginia

all his TV coverage seems to be negative which i think worked in the beginning but now people are asking what he has planned, and now the mcDonnell attack ad comes out with deeds saying that he will raise taxes and it makes deeds look weak. My union supported deeds from the start of his campaign but the members and some of the officers of the union are out working for McDonnell as hes now seen as the frontrunner and people like to support a winner.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

5. Deeds is just not an exciting candidate. MacAuliffe knocked out Moran

who I think would have won in a walk over McDonnell. Thanks Terry!

I agree that Deeds needs his own message aside from negatives on MacDonnell. There's still time and hopefully Northern Virginia will save us from McDonnell.

[theHandpuppet]

8. I have to say I think Deeds' TV ads are terrible

Grainy black and white ads that look like they were made on the cheap in the 1950's. Horrible.

[Le Taz Hot]

20. Perk!

I'm interested in this Moran/Terry MacAuliffe thing. Could you enlighten this Californian?

[Nikki Stone1]

39. How did Moran get knocked out?

Thanks

[kctim]

7. Backlash

and you will see record turnout in 2010.

[rvablue]

31. Uh huh. Don't think so. If turnout was the same as last year, Deeds would

sail into office.

[kctim]

34. Last year was a Presidential election

next year is not. Republicans are going to turnout in droves and it is going to take last years Dem turnout to make it even close. History shows that is not going to happen.

[rvablue]

36. You're wrong. Bookmark this post. Turnout on either side will not break records in VA THIS year.

This year. This year. Not next. The election will take place on Nov. 4th of this year.

[kctim]

38. I follow

but I did say backlash in 2010 in my response to the question how its looking in our area.

But, since the VA election is this year and not in 2010, you are correct and I was wrong for thinking it was in 2010.

[kentuck]

9. Virginia is very unpredictable...

A lot of voters in that state seem to vote for candidates for reasons other than Party affiliation?

[vadawg]

10. thats a good point, there are a myriad of reasons why people vote and for whom

i think a lot if the counties like a rebel, someone they see out side of the the political norm, some like a local boy, for some people its as simple as the school football team a candidate supports, i dont think we will ever figure out why people vote for people especially when there are crazy reasons whuy..

[AspenRose]

12. The reasons I've heard are that people think Deeds is too negative

They say they don't like his negative ads. :shrug:

I've also heard democrats say they aren't exactly sure what he stands for, but they're voting for him anyway because he's better than McConnell.

Moran was my pick in the primaries

[vadawg]

13. just going from what the ads say, it looks like he has no plan for the state

except to raise taxes, i think his numbers are going to keep falling unless he tries to go positive but i think its to late for that...

[theHandpuppet]

15. The ads are dark, dismal and negative

I think they are turning people off, bigtime.

[iceman66]

14. It's not exactly conservative backlash

First of all, Deeds is a particularly weak candidate.

Second, the hard right conservatives always turn out, and always vote against Democrats anyway. These people have not changed their minds at all since the last election.

The disturbing trend here is that Obama and the Democrats in general have lost significant ground among moderate 'swing' voters, which are especially important in a state like Virginia, largely due to economic issues.

These people see Obama spending a ton of money, and running up the deficit, without a lot (yet) to show for it in terms of job creation. If, a year from now, the stimulus really starts to take effect and we see some positive job numbers, the Democrats will be able to make up some of that lost ground.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

18. I Just Read A New Poll

A new poll that just came out says support of Obama by Independents has skyrocketed by double-digits lately. It said his favorability rating was up something like 18% among Independents, and his unfavorability rating was down 9% among Independents. Maybe Virginia isn't following the National trend.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

17. For Some Reason, I Have A Weird Fascination With Virginia

I live in Ohio, but I've found myself very drawn to Virginia Democrats lately. I really like guys like Warner, Kaine, and one of my favorite Senators in Congress today, Jim Webb. But those guys are the heavy hitters of the Democratic Party in Virginia, as I understand it. And they're all off doing bigger and better things. As I learned several years ago, sometimes when you KNOW you're going to lose, you offer up a sacrificial lamb in order to spare a better candidate who may not be quite ready yet (and I learned this while working on the campaign of a doomed Dem running for Ohio Governor back in the '90s--Ohio Democrats didn't want to face the possibility of running their top guy only to see him lose, so they saved him for the next election and offered up a sacrificial lamb who ended up getting something like 28% of the vote).

Maybe that's what's going on here (I don't know for sure, as I don't know Virginia politics THAT well). But I do know that the 3 Virginia Dems I named above are VERY strong, whereas I don't think I've heard of this Deeds person.

[iceman66]

19. That's not exactly what happened here

Two potentially stronger candidates - MacAuliffe and Moran - essentially knocked each other out in the primary leaving Deeds the winner almost by default.

As someone else pointed out on this thread, Moran would probably be leading McConnell, and MacAuliffe would at least be running a much more competent campaign.

[vadawg]

21. i have also noticed that a lot of the obama lawn signs have been replaced with McDonnell ones

not sure what kind of shift has happened, mayby all politics is local..

[iceman66]

22. That is disturbing,

that people who were excited enough about Obama to put signs on their lawns are now switching to McConnell. Obviously, the Republicans have had some success in swaying the low information voters bsck into the fold. They can't be motivated by political idealogy as the two could not be further apart.

How widespread a trend is this?

[vadawg]

23. no idea how widespread it is and its totally anecdotal, but the three immediate properties to mine

all had obama signs up now they all have McDonnell, also i am working on election day and im not going to be making any efforts to get to the polls as im not keen of deeds, if this is multiplied throughout the state then he may be in for a whalloping.

[Statistical]

26. I don't think it is pro-Republican as much as it is anti-Deeds.

The election is in a month and honestly I have no idea what Deeds plans are. I know two things

1) he loves attack ads. he went negative early and hard which usually is a sign of someone with no ideas
2) he wants to raise taxes.

VA is doing better than average in this recession. unemployment is lower than national average and military bases & defense contractors are keeping revenue in the state.

The major third rail of VA politics is TRANSPORTATION. TRANSPORTATION, TRANSPORTATION, TRANSPORTATION.
I have no idea how Deeds plans to address the big T issue or even if he intends to.

I can't really get anyone else excited because I am not excited.

Honestly I think Deeds could be a horrible leader and likely will hurt Dems in 2012 is he crashes & burns in the Governor office.

[iceman66]

27. Do you think there are a lot of people who still support Obama but are voting McConnell anyway?

Is Deeds really that bad?

[vadawg]

30. someting to remember that McDonnell is well known state wide

and hes being portrayed as someone who can works with all sides and people so hes not coming across as the big bogey man that deeds ads are sayig him to be, classic example is the thesis and how woman should not be out of the home, McDonnell countered it beautifully with his daughter who was the platoon leader in Iraq, it totally shot down the deeds ad.

[Statistical]

32. Yeah I don't necessarily think a vote for McConnell is a vote against Obama.

I haven't seen any polls on approval rating of Obama for just VA but I would imagine it is >50%.

Deeds just really comes off badly.
He seems inexperienced, out of ideas except raising taxes as a solution.
To my knowledge he hasn't put out any good transportation plan.
His attack ads are bad and even the local paper called them dishonest.

I mean with a "campaign" like that you likely aren't going to win no matter who is in the White House.

VA tends to be a state where "party affiliation" isn't enough to get you a win.

[WI_DEM]

24. there is a good or even chance dems will lose both NJ and VA

despite polls improving in NJ. Why? the GOP base is revved up and will vote. I'm not so sure about the democratic base.

[iceman66]

29. I think we will probably win NJ.

Corzine seems to be running a much more effective campaign than Deeds in VA, and NJ is a much bluer state in general.

[Arugula Latte]

35. This morning I called Harry Reid's office and said that he had better

step up to the plate and act like a Democrat and not a Republican and fight for the public option or else the Democrats who made phone calls, went door to door, donated money, etc. are not even going to bother to vote in '10, that's how dispiriting this namby pamby weak bullshit is.

[Blue_Tires]

25. a few factors from my observation

for starters, Deeds started way too late in going on the offensive after winning the primary (McDonnell started pretty much from day 1, running his commercials for weeks before Deeds started)

McDonnell's home base of Hampton Roads is carries much more political and economic weight than Deeds' (farthest NW Va.)...it has been too easy to paint Deeds as some bumpkin outsider who doesn't know the wants and needs of the state's urban centers (McDonnell is using that talking point to siphon off black voters)...Ironically, it was thought that Deeds' background would resound with the more rural, RW, "red" regions of the state...

Don't forget; McDonnell is military...That alone will get you a chunk of votes in theory, especially if the opponent is not...

People say VA has changed, but it never stopped being in love with fundie xtianism, extreme social conservatism, the death penalty, being "tough on crime", i.e., harsh sentences for people of color based on petty offenses or questionable convictions, free-market business industries (with bigger and bigger tax breaks), anti-choice, anti-tax, etc...For all the percieved flak McDonnell took for his mysogynist thesis, a LOT of people were silently agreeing with him...

McDonnell is much more closely tied to the Richmond political back-scratching apparatus, which is very, very important (fwiw I didn't vote for McAuliffe, but to his credit he would have easily had the Richmond-NoVa corridors and its power brokers LOCKED -- It was the rest of the state I didn't think he could win over)...Which brings me to my last and most painful point: A LOT of prominent Dems, community and business leaders, etc. (they fucking know who they are) who were 100 percent behind McAuliffe and his bottomless funding decided to take their ball and go home the day after the primary, and merrily joined the enemy camp with open arms...Add to that the dems who will simply stay home since 'their guy' isn't in it, and a GOP trying to send a national message about their party coming back, and you know the story....

[theHandpuppet]

33. Good assessment

I also think anyone who thought Deeds could pull in the rural, RW, "red" areas of the state were deluded. I lived in that area of Virginia for years and no way was it going Democratic. Besides, Deeds is a virtual unknown outside of his own county, which although beautiful, has a total population of something around 5,000 souls or less.

Deeds was just a really unfortunate choice. For a Dem to win Virginia they have to carry the NE and push hard to address those concerns.

It particularly pains me to see the GOP's latest Ken doll leading in the polls and what that might mean for women and GLBT persons in the Commonwealth -- as if GLBT persons don't have it bad enough already there with Virginia's draconian, gay-hating laws.

[Blue_Tires]

37. it could be that the party has gone to that well one too many times

i realize in the eyes of the party, only a 'certain' kind of democrat (centrist/center-right) can win in VA, but that strategy can fail when put up against a strong, well-supported GOP candidate...

and some people are forgetting that the Va govornorship on paper is one of the most overrated in the nation, because of non-consecutive terms and a legislature that does (or doesn't) do the real work when they are not fighting...and as governor you actually have to be trying to fuck things up, or have a near-bushian level of incompetence, cronyism, graft, pettiness and emotional insecurity (like Gilmore)...

What gets people into it (and what garners all the attention from national parties and media) is that the office has unofficially become the ultimate ideal testing ground for those seeking higher aspirations...So when Virginians see gubernatorial candidates many of them are thinking: "How would candidate X or Y look as our future Senator??"

[NeedleCast]

28. Virginia is strange like that

The "top" of the state is pretty blue, the bottom of the state pretty red. I agree that there may be some cause for concern but I don't know if Virginia is a good litmus test.