GOP REALLY in the shitter, I am not kidding, no sweat for Dems in 2010

[DainBramaged]

http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/.a/6a00d83451d25c69e20120a5b0f103970b-popup

How weak is the Republican brand right now? This issue came up yesterday when a Media Matters criticized The Hill for failing to mention the GOP's poor polling numbers in a story on the 2010 elections. Similarly, I recently suggested that that the damaged Republican brand might limit the number of seats that the party picks up. But is the party really worse off than previous opposition parties at this point in the election cycle?

As a first cut at the question, I pulled all the relevant polling on approval of the party in Congresss and party favorability from the Roper iPoll database for the periods leading up to the four most recent midterms (1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006). In both cases, the results are consistent, but I'll focus on the favorability questions since Pew and CBS asked comparable questions about party favorables in each cycle.*

The overall finding is simple -- the GOP's standing relative to the Democrats on both measures is worse than any opposition party in the sample. For instance, the Pew data show that the Republicans are currently viewed more negatively than any minority party in the previous four midterms in terms of both net favorables and the difference in net favorables between parties:**

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/assessing_the_gop_brand.php

[Cant trust em]

1. I bet we'll lose a couple of seats, but not the majority.

Not the bloodbath that some people are talking about.

[madokie]

4. Yea there might be a dem lose here or there but they'll be so many new ones that no one will notice.

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

2. No sweat for Dems . . .

providing that their seriously disenchanted supporters, reeling from public option betrayal (among other things) don't decide to let them dangle.

[madokie]

3. I'll be blown the fuck away if the dems lose any seats in either the house or the senate

Its pretty obvious who is the party thats trying to do something for us the people who make up the biggest voting block. Everyone I know sees where the problem lies and I live here in ok for cryingoutloud, so if I can see it why can't others too. I say if they aren't it's because they have something in their eye, like their dumbasses maybe

[Engineer4Obama]

5. People are ignoring how many things the republicans have said that can be made into commercials

When the campaigns actually gets under way things are going to change by a lot.

[Mrs. Overall]

6. Republicans have allowed their extremist right wing to hijack the party and its message--

tea baggers, birthers, town hall screamers, deathers, religious nuts, Michelle Bachmann, Glen Beck, Sarah Palin, etc...

[LuvNewcastle]

7. I'm mostly concerned with voter turnout.

Democrats better get out the vote next year or we will lose a significant number of seats. The fewer the voters, the more Republicans.

[emulatorloo]

9. Teabagger types will come out in droves. Dems better get out and vote. n/t

[rbixby]

18. I have the feeling that they'll be voting 3rd party

Which is only going to work in our favor.

[Demoiselle]

11. If a strong public option doesn't get passed...I'll stay home.

Sometimes I think that the Dem establishment assumes liberal/progressive life-long Dems
like me have nowhere else to go. But actually, I don't have to go anywhere. I can
stay away from the polls...something I've never done before in my life.
I have no idea whether there are that many who share my view or not. AND I don't care.
I am waiting patiently....and hoping. But walking away is an option for me that I would never
have considered years ago. I think the Dems should be worried about losing me...and others like me.

[Demoiselle]

12. If a strong public option doesn't get passed...I'll stay home.

Sometimes I think that the Dem establishment assumes liberal/progressive life-long Dems
like me have nowhere else to go. But actually, I don't have to go anywhere. I can
stay away from the polls...something I've never done before in my life.
I have no idea whether there are that many who share my view or not. AND I don't care.
I am waiting patiently....and hoping. But walking away is an option for me that I would never
have considered years ago. I think the Dems should be worried about losing me...and others like me.

[Selatius]

14. That depends on if there is a strong public option. If it is a cripple, liberals will stay home.

Then that's when Republicans will go on the attack.

[Burma Jones]

8. Just follow the money

If more bucks are flowing to the 'Puke candidates....and more than just that dweeb Wilson, then they'll pick up some seats. If the bucks are flowing to incumbents, we're in good shape.

[bigwillq]

10. DEMS will likely lose

some seats. Traditionally, the power in party does. Not always, but most of the time. Too early to predict how many (if even some at all). Too early to predict anything, really.

[zbdent]

13. um ... remember ... the media that gets out to the masses

is not on our side ...

[librechik]

15. Dems better turn out to beat Blue Dogs in primaries

at least. ESPECIALLY if no public option.

[KharmaTrain]

16. Law Of Diminishing Returns...

I agree with most of what you say. The rushpublican brand is severely damaged and their numbes have been stagnant in the 20s for nearly 2 years now. Any gains they claim to be making are "tactical"...there's little proof in the poling of any real shift back toward the GOOP.

That said, the biggest obstacles to the Democrats next year are the Democrats themselves. There aren't that many moderate rushpublican districts to exploit anymore...most districts that are in GOOP hands are redder than red and would elect a soap dish with an (R) next to its name before a Democrat. There are also those within the Democratic sphere (and we see them here on DU) who didn't get their pony or have some other bug up their behind that either means lack of support for Democrats or some may even bolt across the aisle to "show us".

Looking at next years races, the GOOP has zero momentum...no prohibitive candidates in any Senate race at this point and a very thin bench in many areas of the country where they need to start rebuilding. Within 10 years, this corrupt party has all but spent itself and their only hope for any gains next year is for Democrats to fail.

[eridani]

17. True, but that could change if the public figures out that health care won'e change until 2013

Still, the Repukes may continue to override that advantage by acting like assholes.