Job losses, by month, over past year

[scheming daemons]

Aug 2008: -84,000
Sep 2008: -159,000
Oct 2008: -240,000 <---- Market collapse
Nov 2008: -533,000
Dec 2008: -524,000
Jan 2009: -598,000 <---- Obama inaugurated
Feb 2009: -651,000
Mar 2009: -663,000 <---- ARRA (Stimulus) starts
Apr 2009: -539,000
May 2009: -345,000
Jun 2009: -467,000
Jul 2009: -247,000
Aug 2009: -216,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics



Now.... looking at those numbers....

Notice what the trend was BEFORE the Stimulus went into effect?

How about the trend AFTER the Stimulus went into effect?


Yes... we are not in positive territory yet. But we've gone from losing 663,000 jobs per month to losing 216,000 jobs per month in the six months that the Stimulus package has been in effect.

It's working. And the trend lines are going to continue moving in the right direction. By January, there will be a "+" in front of the number.


That is what is meant when people say that jobs are a "lagging economic indicator." Panic hits, businesses start to lay off. As the picture brightens, businesses begin to stop the layoffs. As business picks up even more, they start to rehire. That's the order that things happen. Always has been.

[progressoid]

1. Freeper response:

Layoffs started right after the election so it's obvious that it's Obama's fault.

[HughBeaumont]

4. Response to Freeper:

Worst effing stretch of job creation in the modern era. 2 recessions. 1 full term of No Net New Jobs created. 39 straight months of manufacturing job losses. 3 years where the benchmark of 150k jobs needed per month was not met.

After that, give said freepers 5 minutes only to fret and fume at the screen and come up with scapegoats that take Beamon-esque leaps in logic.

[Oregone]

2. "By January, there will be a "+" in front of the number."

From your mouth to God's ears




I think you should just be happy if by January, the losses aren't double what they are now.

[scheming daemons]

3. Just following the trend lines....

....doesn't mean things can't change though, you're right.

[Oregone]

5. "trend lines" aren't static and can depend on seasonal conditions

What is happening at the end of summer is not a straight line prediction to what will happen in winter. It may suggest that next winter, there will be less bleeding than last. Getting into job gains in the dead of winter seems rather unlikely.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Seasonal jobs for the holiday season

tend to squew numbers, as well as layoffs from seasonal work in the summer

[sandnsea]

6. Thank you

All my kids are finally working full time. Things are slowly moving again. At least I hope. It's been an awful summer.