Independent UK: Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'

[marmar]

Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'
Health authorities told to set up testing and drug distribution centres in case of autumn outbreak

By Jonathan Owen

Sunday, 21 June 2009


Primary care trusts are to set up anti-viral drug distribution centres and swine flu testing clinics amid fears that the infection could spread out of control.

The Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, wrote to health authorities last week urging hospitals to test all patients who show signs of flu-like symptoms. He wrote: "Transmission from person to person in this country is increasingly common. There is evidence that sporadic cases are arising with no apparent link either to cases elsewhere in the UK or to travel abroad."

The letter followed an earlier warning from Sir Liam that millions of Britons could fall victim to swine flu in the coming months. Government officials admitted last night that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent.

Primary care trusts are now being briefed to expect that the pandemic could affect as much as 40 per cent of the workforce before the end of the year, with many worried that there could be a surge of cases in the autumn, according to health industry sources.

The Department of Health sought to reassure the public last night. A spokesman said: "Previous pandemics have seen total illness levels of 25-35 per cent. So our plans are as robust as possible, we have based them on illness rates of 50 per cent, though we do not anticipate it being this high in the current pandemic. Based on this figure, the workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent at the pandemic's peak. In the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per cent." He said it was impossible to predict when the pandemic would peak, but added: "As part of ongoing planning, the NHS is being asked to ensure that antiviral collection points could, if needed, be put into action in a week."

Keen to avoid panic, the Government is careful to present official statistics showing "laboratory-confirmed" cases, which currently stand at 2,244. Yet the true scale of infections is far higher than headline figures suggest. The total number of cases either confirmed by laboratory tests or "clinically presumed" currently stands at 3,725. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/swine-flu-could-infect-up-to-half-the-population-1711552.html

[SheilaT]

1. So we're all doomed, right?

I'm so tired of the hype that says the swine flu is going to kill us all. Or at least most of us.

So far it has proven to be an unusually mild and not very lethal strain of flu.

If this kind of hype were applied to the thousands of deaths that occur every day from cigarette smoking, or automobile accidents, or even backyard drownings, it might almost make sense.

[MercutioATC]

2. Who said that?

It's a pandemic, but not an especially dangerous one at this point.

However, it IS mutating (as all viruses do) and it bears watching.

[SheilaT]

6. Perhaps this particular post did not say that,

but most articles seem to be breathlessly warning us that this is potentially dangerous, and EVERYONE has to be aware, EVERYONE is at grave risk, and as soon as a vaccine is rushed into production EVERYONE had better get it.

I was already an adult during the last swine flu hysteria, and know that many more people were damaged by a vaccine rushed in to production that ever came down with the swine flu, and so to say I'm highly skeptical doesn't begin to cover it.

I also think that flu vaccine in general is pushed on to a lot of people, such as healthy young adults and children, who have absolutely no need for it. Yes, there are populations for whom it is appropriate, but not everyone.

[MercutioATC]

7. Agreed about vaccines, but don't throw out the baby with the bathwater.

The hype is to sell papers, but any widely-spread virus is a cause for concern. Not panic, concern.

This one, in particular, has a decent likelihood of mutating into something more serious.

It's something to watch.

[MercutioATC]

8. Agreed about vaccines, but don't throw out the baby with the bathwater.

The hype is to sell papers, but any widely-spread virus is a cause for concern. Not panic, concern.

This one, in particular, has a decent likelihood of mutating into something more serious.

It's something to watch.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. But you were not alive during the 1918

here is a history for you

The first phase was mild, like this one. The second one in the fall was the sucker punch

By the way. we develop vaccines every year for the seasonal flu. So you could say we rush them every year.

The level of willful ignorance is amazing

By the way, I got it... very mild, my doc and I joked, that I got my vaccine. Will still get it in the fall when it comes out. Oh like I do every year.

By the way, 1918 was a strain of H1N1

[Political Heretic]

3. Whatever.

:eyes:

[Maru Kitteh]

4. Next we'll be fraught by a plague of minorly annoying chickadees.

God help us all.

[Horse with no Name]

5. I can't link this because it is a personal account

but anyone willing to sign up for an account at www.medscape.com can have their own access to it> It is very worth your while to sign up because there are many very interesting articles available. I think too many people are not taking this seriously enough--hospitals included.
>>>snip
PAS 2009: H1N1 Flu Predicted to Wane and Reemerge in Fall
May 4, 2009 (Baltimore, Maryland) — Pediatric infectious diseases specialists and public health experts used the stage of the Pediatric Academic Societies' annual meeting to update their colleagues on the latest statistics and projections on the H1N1 "swine flu" outbreak.

"I believe that we will see die down over the next month or two, with a reemergence in the fall," predicted James Cherry, MD, pediatric infectious diseases specialist at the University of California at Los Angeles School of Medicine.

"I've lived through 4 shifts of influenza A," Dr. Cherry told a heavily attended special symposium here. The current strain appears to be more similar to the 1957 strain, when deaths were largely attributed to coinfection with Staphylococcus aureus, than it does to the better recognized 1976 swine influenza outbreak, he said.

>>>>snip
The speakers have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.



ATS 2009: Second Wave of H1N1 Flu Feared in the Fall
>>>>snip
May 20, 2009 (San Diego, California) — In a special panel session here at ATS 2009: the American Thoracic Society International Conference, experts and public-health officials discussed the current situation and ways hospitals can prepare for a potential second wave of infections in the fall.

The novel influenza A (H1N1) virus "sneaked in the door while health authorities who should have known better were busy closing windows," said Carol J. Cardona, DVM, PhD, ACPV, from the Department of Population Health and Reproduction, and professor in the School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, to an overflow crowd of thoracic and critical-care physicians.

"This virus has followed the pattern of all historic pandemics, and we've missed some precursors out there and we've missed some signals," Dr. Cardona said. She is a virologist and an expert in determining how disease-causing agents damage their hosts. Dr. Cardona's segment of the presentation was entitled "Swine Flu: Molecular Clues to the Origin, Transmission, and Pathogenesis of the Virus."
>>>snip
He said it might get to the point that entire hospitals will be converted to ICU care, because institutions cannot care for ill patients in tents that are not equipped with liquid oxygen systems. He suggested that acute respiratory distress syndrome and asthma would be the predominant conditions of presenting patients. "Despite excellent care, people are still dying and until recently there were no good data to predict just how sick people would be; these are sick people who will require a full-court press of what we can provide."