North Korea May Fire a Missile Toward Hawaii

[tekisui]

Source: AP

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea may fire a long-range ballistic missile toward Hawaii in early July, a Japanese news report said Thursday, as Russia and China urged the regime to return to international disarmament talks on its rogue nuclear program.

The missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles (6,500 kilometers), would be launched from North Korea's Dongchang-ni site on the northwestern coast, said the Yomiuri daily, Japan's top-selling newspaper. It cited an analysis by the Japanese Defense Ministry and intelligence gathered by U.S. reconnaissance satellites.

The missile launch could come between July 4 and 8, the paper said.

While the newspaper speculated the Taepodong-2 could fly over Japan and toward Hawaii, it said the missile would not be able to hit Hawaii's main islands, which are about 4,500 miles (7,200 kilometers) from the Korean peninsula.

A spokesman for the Japanese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report. South Korea's Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service — the country's main spy agency — said they could not confirm it.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090618/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear;_ylt=AsNEjfiMcF8h7SOpk5Q_67.s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTJpaHA4bWcyBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkwNjE4L2FzX2tvcmVhc19udWNsZWFyBGNwb3MDMgRwb3MDOARzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3J5BHNsawNub3J0aGtvcmVhbWE-|more>

[Haole Girl]

1. I'm almost afraid to ask what's next.

:-(

[Robb]

2. A promise not to try for 5,000 tons of wheat. nt

[shadowknows69]

3. Christmas for the Military Industrial Complex comes next.

[LaurenG]

4. Well there will be some fireworks should they be so

hopelessly stupid. The head of North Korea needs to stand down and shut up especially since no one is doing anything to N Korea. Since we can't trust N Korea to be honest about anything we can only assume the missile is loaded.

I am totally against war except when attacked and then all bets are off.

[Deja Q]

5. They might still be belligerent on solely an oral level.

But they can remove the missile from their ass and bury it under the ground, where it belongs.

Their leader is insane, or is openly wanting his country to be destroyed. The international community will not tolerate their actions, and they will do more than just talk at some point too.

Especially if NK's missile has a fault and blows up over China. There's a large handful of reasons why China is concerned too.

[customerserviceguy]

16. "The international community will not tolerate their actions..."

What's the world going to do? Meaningless UN resolutions? Phony embargoes that are always violated anyway?

Dear Leader is going to actually have to take out a significant number of innocent people somewhere before anybody finds the testicular fortitude to do what's necessary. And if China says forget about that, even then it won't happen.

China could have put a stop to this nonsense at any time in the last couple of decades. I can only conclude that they want having the equivalent of a rabid dog at their side, snarling at the world.

[ThomWV]

6. Really? I thought their last one barely cleared Japan before it splashed down

No amount of bullshit can make a real threat out of North Korea anymore than it can out of Iran.

[Deja Q]

7. And everyone in the area watching that missile go kablewy were freaked out too.

NK needs to be stopped.

Especially if it went kablewey any worse and landed in Japan.

It's a wake-up call, if NK is playing with missiles to this level.

[Deja Q]

10. Addendum: China and Russia pressure North Korea

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8106316.stm

This is BIG news. Very welcoming news, in fact.

NK claims they won't be provoked... except NK has been provoking everyone else. Seems only fair to say "If you do this, we won't let you get away with it". How the hell is that provoking NK? Nobody wants the US (or anyone else) to launch missiles and send them halfway around the world... :eek:

[tekisui]

15. NK is going to put up or shut up.

Without China's or Russia's support, they are dead in the water. They will have to swallow are the bellicose threats, start a war or starve to death. Those are their only options. The last two end NK.

[RaleighNCDUer]

23. Careful there -

a voice of reason does not seem to be appreciated here, today.

[ellisonz]

8. Two can play games...

I vote we try to shoot it down with our missile defense systems in Japan.

-In Honolulu

[KharmaTrain]

9. And?

Run, run, run...hide, hide, hide...fear, fear, fear. Those evil North Koreans are gonna fry us...with one missile? Guess the asshats who are soiling their undies kinda forgot that many of us lived for decades with the threat someone in Moscow could cough, hit a button and the east coast could be vaporized.

First of all...we've seen North Korean technology is early 50's DeSoto...they'd be lucky to hit the Pacific Ocean from where they're at. And the consequences of launching such a missile? Especially against a country that not only has more missiles in one silo than the Koreans could dream of building (as well as MIRVs from submarines).

As I've said in the past...the next time the North Koreans play their stunts, we surface one of our newest submarines off their coast...call Pyongyang, tell 'em to give that sub a good look and dare them to shoot another missile.

[Statistical]

11. Why would you surface a boomer?

They are rather vulnerable to attack that is why we keep them hidden.

The range on a Trident D4 is 11,400 km. North Korea knows we can hit anywhere in the world from anywhere in the world.

The real question is does a crazy person care?
Did Cho care that he was going to die when he shot up VT?
Would an aging insane dictator be willing to "go out with a bang"?

Likely not but who knows that dude is insane.

[KharmaTrain]

14. And They'll Attack With?

The mighty North Korean "Navy"? All this fear mongering is just what the North Koreans want. Hope the west gets all in a panic and will pay money or food or whatever Pyongyang wants...then they'll go away quietly until the next time they need to extort. I'd be more concerned about the Grand Duchy of Fenwick.

And now who is that crazy person? Kim Jong Il? According to reports he's no longer in power...or at least in any substansive way. We know zero about his son or who else is running that regime.

So how does a lone wolf gun nut relate to a nation of 24 million people? Surely the North Koreans at least know wars have consequences...any real attack would mean massive destruction that no country, even this repressive state would wish upon itself.

As usual American myopia to the world outside its own borders or sphere of influence are drawn like cartoons...it's this lack of understanding that hurts this country over and over in the international arena.

Cheers...

[Statistical]

17. The country is already DEVESTATED!!!!!!

It has been for 40 years.
Infant mortality rate
starvation
lack of heating or lighting

They masses are living in the stone age.

NK cares about consequences? Really? I mean the millions that die every year from starvation, disease, lack of shelter, or in political prisons THAT ISN'T EVEN OF A CONSEQUENCE.

Nobody in the military is stupid enough to surface a boomer. Ever.
The spend their entire lives pretending to be a whole at the bottom of the ocean.

Wouldn't it really suck if someone in the miliary was stupid enouh to pull a stunt like that.
To do something asinine like surface one of the most classified pieces of strategic defense off the coast of a hostile nation and it turns out NK has some anti-ship missile they bought (Russia and France both sell some pretty good ones) and sinks it. Couple hundred dead sailors, a nuclear sub sunk in shallow water, 24 ICBM containing over 200 nuclear warheads laying in a wreck under the waves. Wow. That would be wonderful.

Boomers hide. They don't even get to go to many foreign ports. If you want to see the world as a submariner get on a fast attack sub. You will go to dozens of ports. If you are on a Boomer you spend 4 months hiding at the bottom of the ocean waiting for the command everyone hopes never comes.

[KharmaTrain]

18. Why Aren't You Working For The CIA...

Seems you have such a good handle on the North Koreans, you should be in Langley banging heads.

My point wasn't about the submarines as much as to demonstrate how futile a North Korean "missile" attack would be on the US and how amping up the fear is just what the Pyongyang regime is hoping for. Surely the leaders in Pyongyang know what our military can do to them...the leadership. Yes, we've seen how there's little regard for the peasantry, but in such an oligarchy, there is a privilidged class that loses all in any real military confrontation...they also lose if they're ignored...so playing chicken gets the attention and eventually a pay off. Cut off the attention and hermetically seal the country and lets see how much of a threat they are.

I'll be honest...I have no clue what goes on in the heads of meglomaniacs or the people who serve them, but I do know that history has shown that these regimes will do what they can to preserve and enhance their power when the numbers are in their favor. The North Koreans know they don't have the numbers...but they have shown many times...going back to the capture of the Pueblo that they ahve a price and aren't afraid to say what it is.

Again...it's extortion...and as long as not only the US, but China, Japan and South Korea continue to play, whomever is in charge in Pyongyang will take advantage.

[Statistical]

19. I agree it would be futile. I also agree it would be unlikely. I agree it is extortion

I was just pointing out 3 things
1) Sometimes people do stupid things even w/ countries involved. Sadaam refusing offer to live rest of his life in a non-extradition country. he had to know he had 0% chance of surviving the war
2) Using a deterrent weapon as a show of force is all around stupid
3) Thinking NK leadership will do the "right thing" for NK is not a good policy. Just looking at NK will let you know they don't give a flying crap how many people die in a futile war.

So while it is unlikely I think the US should be prepared for someone in NK pulling the national equivalent of "suicide by cop".

Also IF NK launches an ICBM and it enters US airspace EVEN IF nobody is hurt that is unacceptable. Period. There will have to be consequences and not no worthless UN resolution slap on the wrist.
Hopefully NK doesn't push it that far.

[KharmaTrain]

20. Missile Defense Is All About Deterence

We agree on more than we don't and I'm appreciate your viewpoints. As you say, hopefully the North Koreans won't push their luck to a point where it requires an international response...especially a military one. And you are right that their leadership will not do the right thing for their people...but I do believe they will do all they can to preserve their own power at all costs. This is a regime that has been in power for nearly 65 years and has survived by playing across the political strife lines yet we haven't seen any attacks across the 38th parallel....unlike Saddam who pushed his luck in Kuwait and never compormised like the North Koreans have.

Remember, a big part of the Raygan Star Wars scheme is deterance...and many will say that it was MAD...Mutually Assured Destruction (and deterence) that kept a balance of power in the world until 1989. Inversely, for a small country like North Korea to remain relevant, they need to create their own noise...and we have to learn to calibrate what that noise really is. I've long favored opening up these countries by flooding them with consumer goods...in many ways that's what brought down the Soviet system and is transforming China. Given the option of fighting or shopping...people perfer shopping.

Cheers...

[Raskolnik]

21. But the problem is that this *is* the "next time."

If they fire a missile at Hawaii, even one that we don't think can actually get there, that is an act of open war.

[KharmaTrain]

22. Open War?

And where would this war take place? Would we lob missiles back and forth? Surely there would be a third party or two who might get in the way or want a part of the action.

A missile launch is provocation...such as when we send spy satallites over their territory or mass 30,000 heavily armed troops on their border. And a pint-sized missile would destroy this country how?

As we saw in the past 8 years, one can always find a provocation for war...few have the foresight to find a provocation for peace.

Cheers...

[Raskolnik]

26. If you think actually launching a missile aimed at Hawaii is analogous

to maintaining troops near the border or having a spy satellite in outer space, I'm not sure you are being reasonable.

Surely there would be a third party or two who might get in the way or want a part of the action.

Like who? China? Do you honestly think they are going come pouring over the border as they did in 1950? Really?

As we saw in the past 8 years, one can always find a provocation for war...few have the foresight to find a provocation for peace.

That's all well and good for a bumper sticker, but what should we do if N.K. lobs a missile at Seoul? How about Japan? What level of "provocation" do think warrants a response of more than the frowning of a lifetime?*



*to be clear, I am absolutely not advocating an armed response today or next week, but I do recognize that N.K. seems intent on upping the ante until such a response is inevitable

[symbolman]

12. Yo, Crazy Man

Try SPACE.. That way if missile come down, it make you nice Party Hat..

[Statistical]

13. I don't think they could even get close.

They tried to put a test sat into orbit and got nowhere close.
2/3 of TD-2 missiles have failed.
The one "successful" launch only went 2000km. It isn't known if that was intentional or if the missile failed to maintain proper flight path for a longer flight.

NK could likely launch 10 and maybe one would get within 500 miles of Hawaii.

If it does get anywhere close. The military in Alaska will be very excited. A chance to test one of these:

[newportdadde]

24. Obviously we need an overpriced missle shield paid for with cash borrowed form China.

Thats the ticket! Someone get that check over the Military Industrial Complex.

[Vidar]

25. They fire a missile. We fire one. Ours will hit.