Specter-lating in PA

[radfringe]

Specter-lating in PA

Some background first:

Specter was a Dem at the beginning of his political career.

In 1965, Specter ran for District Attorney, on the Republican ticket as a registered Democrat. He handily beat incumbent Jim Crumlish, and subsequently changed his registration to Republican.
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arlen_Specter )

From an interview US News & World Report - Washington Whispers
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/washington-whispers/2009/04/28/arlen-specter-started-out-his-career-as-a-democrat.html
BRIAN LAMB: What year did you change from being a Democrat to a Republican?

Sen. SPECTER: 1965. I had—I had been interested in being district attorney of Philadelphia. And Philadelphia was a very corrupt city. And the chairman of the Democratic Party said, 'We don't want a young Tom Dewey in the DA's office.' I had just finished investigating magistrates, the corrupt minor judiciary of Philadelphia, where they extracted bribes from people to get discharged, and they went after gays. They had a theater called the Family Theater on the East Market Street where gays assembled, and the vice squad would go and arrest them and take them before magistrates, who would extort large sums of money to—to discharge them or then, if they didn't pay off, to hold them. And I had convicted quite a number of magistrates in this—in this probe, and the head of the Democratic Party didn't like that because these were a lot of very powerful political leaders.

And the Republican leader, Bill Meehan, came to me and asked me if I'd consider running for district attorney on the Republican ticket. And the nomination wasn't worth a whole lot because, the year before, Lyndon Johnson had beaten Goldwater in Philadelphia by 640,000 to 200,000, or a 440,000 majority. But I thought it over and I considered DA a—really a non-political office, and I—I agreed to run on the condition that I would not change my registration, that I have a free hand in selecting assistants. And I was elected DA on the Republican ticket, sort of a fusion ticket.

He recently switched parties from Republican to Democratic, stating quite clearly it was because he wouldn't have the Republican support to defeat Pat Toomey in the republican primary for senate.

In PA - if a candidate is defeated in the primary, they can't switch parties and run in the general as an independent or as a candidate for a different party. there is no "Lieberman" gambit.

As it was in the beginning of his political career - he chose the party that would position him best for a win. It had little to do with party platforms, philosophy or issues.

PA can be a funny state. James Carville once described it as "Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh on one end, Philadelphia on the other, and Alabama in between."

The middle of the state is quite rural and conservative, while the east and west edges are more urban and liberal. Comparing the 'split' - the blue edges have a slight lead regarding registered voters over the middle.

2004 Senate Primary/General Election results:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2004

In 2004 Specter won the Republican Primary, defeating Pat Toomey
50.82% to Toomey's 49.18% or by about 17,000 votes

In the 2004 General Election Spector defeated Hoeffel 52.41% to 41.99% or by about 600,000 votes. Hoeffel wasn't a very strong Dem candidate, he might have faired better if the anti-bush sentiment were stronger in 2004.

Scrabble-ing with letters: RINO or DINO?

Toomey is very much a neo-con and a card-carrying reich-winger, Specter has been portrayed as more of a moderate repub. Prior to switching parties, Specter's record of voting with the Dems has been painted as "liberal" or RINOish.

Conservatives seem to have taken the switch in stride - either pointing out Specter's switch had nothing to do with a difference in political philosophy and everything to do with political positioning or just shrugging it off as "he always votes with the dems anyways".

So what does this party switch do for Specter?

Supposedly it will position him for a Dem primary win, and given the falling poll numbers for repubs in general, Specter could handily win the senate seat as a Dem.

The Dem party is actively discouraging other Dems from entering the Senate race, thus keeping the field clear of any serious Dem candidates. So far, it looks like it's working - no credible Dem candidates have indicated they are considering a Senate run, nor have any names emerged as possible challengers.

There may a Dem name or two on the primary ballot, but it's looking like smoke and mirrors to give the impression the voters have a "choice".

PA convential wisdom is saying it will be a Specter-Toomey race. (Recent reports of Ridge entering the repub-primary race may disrupt convential wisdon) PA voters like their encumbents and tend to vote encumbent.

There are exceptions - Chris Carney defeated Don Sherwood (R-Incumbent) in the house race in 2006 when it was revealed Sherwood had an affair and proported to beat up his girlfriend.

Casey defeated Santorum in 2006 for the senate seat.

How much of Sherwood's affair had to do with his defeat versus the growing anti-bush/repub sentiment is still up for debate.

Casey's victory over Santorum in 2006 points directly to the anti-bush/repub sentiment, plus Casey is the son of a much beloved former governor.

The current political mood in PA:

- anti-repub sentiment is still pretty strong, but by the same token there is a strong party loyalty factor

- while Specter's voting record is cast as being moderate-liberal, he was still a repub, and switching parties for poltical advantage doesn't sit well with voters on either side of the aisle - and this will result in many voters wearing clothespins on their noses when voting in the general election or just staying home

- moderate repubs seem more receptive to Ridge than Toomey. The question is who is in control of the repub party? GOPers or NOPers?

The Primary field:

as previously stated - the Dem party is clearing the field for Specter. Even at this early date (barring some big scandal), it's pretty safe to say Specter will be the Dem nominee.

Indpendents or 3rd party candidates may emerge, but it will have little effect on the outcome of the Dem primary.

General Election:

In addition to fighting Toomey, Specter will also have to watch out for 3rd party and/or independent candidates. This will be more of a danger than Toomey.

If there is a credible 3rd/independent candidate, or even sufficient "protest" votes casts for 3rd/independents - it will split the Dem vote and give the election to Toomey.

Toss in historically "low voter turnout" for midterms, and those who just won't bother to vote (for whatever reason) - Specter is in for a rough ride, and I seriously doubt his seat is even 60% safe.

Toomey will bash him as a "tax-spend" liberal with no concern for "Pennsylvanians", and as a politican looking out for his own butt.

That bump in the road is a Ridge

Toomey's "danger" may be Ridge entering the race. Ridge is closer to being a moderate than not and generally Pennsylvanians liked him.

A Toomey-Ridge primary battle could be a "rehearsal" for a Toomey-Specter match-up, i.e. radical-right vs moderate-right.

If you remember, one of the reasons for McCain not chosing Ridge as a running mate, according to blatherheads, was because Ridge is pro-choice - a big NO-NO with the NOPers.

Ridge's weak point is his stint as Homeland Secretary, with all those color-code terra-lerts, however, American voters have short memories and Ridge's term as Homeland Secretary will be well spun in Ridge's favor. After leaving the Homeland Security post, Ridge did come out and question the reasons for many of the "terra-lerts" - but this was not pursued in any great depth. If it does become an issue, Ridge will throw bush-cheney near the bus wheels if not under the bus.

And then there's the rushicans - will rush and his ditto-head army of clones support Ridge? A filibuster-proof Senate hangs in the balance. Coming out against Ridge in the usual rabid-rush manner would widen the gap between NOPer and GOPer, spilling over into the general election and NOPers either staying home or throwing their support behind a 3rd/independent candidate.

Ridge and Specter's issue positions are also pretty much in sync - not much of a difference. If Ridge does enter the race - the primary race results will be a true measure of the size of the GOP tent - is it big enough to include desenting views or is it just a tiny 6x8 tarp-like canopy over a kool-aid stand?

I know current polls show Specter with a large lead over Toomey, and a smaller lead over Ridge - but it's too early to take those numbers to the bank as a definite Specter win.

[depakid]

1. It's purely specterlating- but I have a feeling Ridge will beat the doddering old fool

if he's the nominee.

The more I look at this whole deal- the more it looks like a lose/lose for the Dems.

[radfringe]

2. I agree

jumping ships doesn't mean the new crew will automatically greet you with open arms

Specter has stated he will vote his own way, while independence is an admirable quality - in the greater scheme of Senate votes on important issues, it means you can't count on his vote.

On the other hand - we've also seen Specter come out swinging against repub legislation/positons, and then cave in when it comes to the yeas and nays. He has bucked the repub party at rare times, but it's only when it's been politically advantageous to do so - like around election time when he needs the fence-sitter Dems or independent votes.

[TorchTheWitch]

3. either way we're stuck with a Repuke in that seat

and I'm furious about it and even more furious that Obama and the Dem party is actually backing this Repuke turd. Specter stapling a "D" on his forehead doesn't make a shit's bit of difference other than having the possibility of keeping his Repuke ass in that seat. He even SAID he was afraid of a REAL Dem taking that seat...

Once Al Franken wins his court case in Minnesota, they'll have 60 Senators, and a freer hand to ram through President Obama's agenda. "If there's a Democrat in my place," Specter said earlier this month, "they'll be able to do whatever they want."
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1894455-2,00.html

Without Specter stapling that "D" on his forehead we would have had a real shot at having a REAL Dem in that seat, and Specter himself both knows it and doesn't want it. Fuck him and the goat he road in on. I really hope that a REAL Dem runs against the asshole in the primary and beats him. But now that Ridge is running we'll probably be stuck with a Repuke anyway.

[Lasher]

4. If Specter wins the Primary, Democratic voters will stay home in droves.

With a choice between GOP and GOP lite in the General. Our best scenario would be to use Specter up in the Senate this year and next, then nominate a real Democrat in the Primary.

[MH1]

7. What you said.

But if Specter doesn't start acting at least a little like a Dem, we might see Sestak take him on.

I might have to come out of my political semi-retirement to support Sestak in that case.

[radfringe]

5. KICK

[radfringe]

6. one more kick

[WeDidIt]

8. I;m donating to Sestak n/t