Let's talk about Pakistan: The Taliban is now in control only 60 miles from Islamabad

[cali]

I haven't a frickin' clue what will happen or what the Pakistani gov't can do to push back against the Taliban, but the possibility of Pakistan's gov't falling to radical elements, isn't academic.

In the last few days the Pakistani Taliban has essentially taken control of Buner district. Under a recent peace deal with the Pakistani gov't, the Taliban agreed to lay down arms against the gov't in exchange for control of the Swat region. They didn't abide by the conditions for a moment before attacking key targets in the Buner region. Here's an article about that:

Taliban consolidates Buner Valley hold

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, April 11 (UPI) -- Taliban forces in northwestern Pakistan have consolidated their hold on the Buner Valley, taking control of new areas there, witnesses said.

Government security forces offered no resistance as militants occupied the houses of community leaders who were organizing an anti-Taliban group, Pakistan's English-language newspaper Dawn reported Saturday.

"They have taken control of vast areas in Buner," a man who lives near the shrine of Pir Baba told Dawn. "They are freely moving around while police and other law-enforcement personnel remain confined to their posts," he said, adding that the militants had broken a promise to leave Buner after holding marches there.

Witnesses said the Taliban militants set fire to television sets, pictures, paintings, and audio and video cassettes before holding Friday prayers, also locking Pir Baba shrine, stopping its followers from visiting the place, the newspaper reported.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/04/11/Taliban-consolidates-Buner-Valley-hold/UPI-97671239468159/

Here's another article, published today, indicating that the Taliban has made advances in Buner over the past 10 days.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkiMxbHNH0BqgpWA2ZG6VD6wVTmAD97NF3380

So what happens if the Pakistani gov't falls to radicals? What will India do? What will Europe's response be? The U.S. response? Does Pakistan falling to radicals pose a danger to the U.S., or only to American interests in the region?

Should the Pakistani gov't declare their peace deal with the Taliban void? Do they have the capacity to deal with the Taliban militarily?

[tsuki]

1. I've been following this. Scary. They are going after Pakistan.

They refused to disarm after taking the Swat Valley under the peace terms, and have now kidnapped a government official of the Dir Provence.

[cali]

2. it's without a doubt the hottest spot on the planet right now

The Taliban has clearly been emboldened by this peace deal.

[tsuki]

3. They are setting up check points with rocket launchers, burning TVs,

CDs, and setting up their own court system. Refugees are fleeing.

India cannot do anything because of the deep hatred, and if Iran intervenes, that will set off the Iraniphobes here.

Sixty miles further, and we don't have to worry about uranium enrichment, they'll have atomic weaponry.

[cali]

4. it's clearly dire and seemingly without a solution

it's such a fucking mess that it makes it hard to discuss.

[JCMach1]

5. This is about ethnicity as well: Taliban=Pathan

In the Pakistan context.

This is more about the falling apart of central authority.

[ShortnFiery]

6. Let's talk about Pakistan? It's a sovereign nation who has NUKES.

We have NO right to invade or bomb them. Encourage the development of democracy by sending HUMANITARIAN AID and educational resources.

Otherwise, keep our grubby paws off ... "The road to HELL is paved with good intentions."

[cali]

7. you seem to be stuck on

well, just stuck. there was no mention or suggestion of invading, shorty. I posted specific questions about a hypothetical situation in which Pakistan is no longer a sovereign nation, but a failed state.

[Occam Bandage]

8. Did anyone here suggest invading them, SnF? I can't see any such suggestion.

[Occam Bandage]

9. Disarmament wasn't part of the peace treaty in Swat.

Or more to the point, there was no enforcement of disarmament, making any such language merely a request to disarm. The Swat Valley accord was not a peace treaty. It was an unconditional surrender, and it was appeasement. I posted at the time that it was nothing but a weak government trading land for temporary peace.

As for the Pakistani government and its military capabilities? Pakistan certainly has the military capacity to destroy the Taliban. They don't have the political ability to do so. Going to outright war against radical Islamists might well result in the Pakistani government collapsing.

As for the threat of Pakistan falling? Nukes in the hands of the Taliban. I have no idea how we respond, or how anyone else responds.

[cali]

10. thanks. I keep reading that part of the peace deal was that the Taliban

would cease their agression against the violence in exchange for the imposition of Sharia law in Swat, and for de facto control of Swat.

Gotta say, though the thought of Iran possessing nukes doesn't scare me, I don't feel the same way about the Taliban possessing nukes.

[Blackhatjack]

11. Pakistan undoubtedly is the most dangerous situation in the world....

This is not a situation in which we fear nukes will be produced in a few years. Pakistan has fully functional nuclear weapons, AND its number one avowed enemy INDIA has nukes as well. Extremists in control of nukes is the ultimate nightmare --and the likelihood of an accidential launch of nukes goes up exponentially in that event.

Further, Pakistan plays a key role in support of US troops in Afghanistan because of supply lines.

This situation could spin out of control at any time, and there are no good solutions.

Hopefully, we can keep the situation from escalating ... but time is not on our side.