NYC-Mayor: Bloombo Leads Top Challengers, But Nums Aren't Great

[ccharles000]

The New York City mayoral race stands a good chance of being the marquee municipal matchup of 2009. (I'm nerd enough to say that with a straight face.) Quinnipiac takes an early look at two potential matchups (11/18-23, registered voters):

Anthony Weiner (D): 34
Michael Bloomberg (I-inc): 50
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.5%)

William Thompson (D): 34
Michael Bloomberg (I-inc): 49
Undecided: 14
Really, though, these questions essentially test Bloomberg against Generic D. Fifty-seven percent have no opinion of Weiner, who represents NY-09 in the House and came in second in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2005. For Thompson, the city's two-term comptroller, that number is 70%. His Bloominess barely scrapes 50% against both guys.

Of course, there are so many potential wrinkles here. Either or both Thompson and Weiner could drop out. They could immolate each other in the primary (which is late, in September). Some Alan Gold-type Repuke could jump in and steal votes from Hizzoner.

More: Bloomstead could spend an insane sum - perhaps $200 million, though the sky's the limit - which could drastically alter the landscape. Case in point: In the equivalent poll four years ago, Freddy Ferrer led Bloomington by 45-40 but got crushed on election day. Then again, Mayor Mike's approvals were much lower then than now, thanks in part to his push for an unpopular football stadium on the West Side.

But that just shows you how much can change in a relatively short amount of time. Bloombo has staked his reptuation - and the raison d'etre for his obnoxious term-limits extension - on his ability to steer the city through the brewing financial crisis. If his leadership falters, his polling numbers are likely to follow. He might even pay a price straight-up for his nakedly self-interested gambit on term limits.

And finally, there still remains a chance that the term-limits move gets rejected in court, perhaps under the VRA. (Did you know that Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan are all subject to pre-clearance rules?) While I give this scenario low odds, it would completely up-end things and put the Dems in the driver's seat.

http://www.swingstateproject.com

[GodlessBiker]

1. Bloomfuck should be crushed bigtime.