Things may be looking up for Mark Begich.

[Blue_In_AK]

From The Mudflats http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/11/07/things-may-be-looking-up-for-mark-begich/

How the man has any stomach lining left, I do not know. But Mark Begich, Democratic candidate for the Senate has been in a holding pattern, 3300 votes behind Republican incumbent convicted felon Ted Stevens since Election night.

There may be as many as 80,000 ballots yet to count, including absentee ballots and those early votes that came in between Friday morning and Monday night. Nate Silver, the numbers guru at fivethirtyeight.com has looked over the returns and raises the following point:

Although Ted Stevens currently holds a lead of approximately 3,200 votes in ballots counted to date in Alaska’s senate contest, there is good reason to believe that the ballots yet to be counted — the vast majority of which are early and absentee ballots — will allow Mark Begich to mitigate his disadvantage with Stevens and quite possibly pull ahead of him.

The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska’s 40 house districts as taken from Alaska’s Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself.

So, if this trend continues with the votes still outstanding, Begich may pull this one off. Here are the current numbers:

Mark Begich 103337 46.61%
Ted Stevens 106594 48.08%

…and then Nate Silver does all kinds of statistical, mathematical, wonky magic, and we end up with:

Begich ahead in the final count by 3000 votes. For the man who won his race for mayor of Anchorage by 18 votes, this would be a landslide.

[IndyOp]

1. Here is a link directly to Nate's post -

Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens

<snip>

There are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes, which are essentially early votes conducted by mail. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "question" or "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts....

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

[pinto]

2. This would be a particularly sweet win.

:kick:

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. What baffles me, is why, after a felony conviction, Stevens is even

plausible to the Alaskan electorate. Did Stevens bring home that much pork? God I hope Begich gets a clear win out of this, so that Stevens and Sarah can't get near the Senate after this.

[eleny]

4. Yes, he brought home the bacon very well for Alaska

[Blue_In_AK]

5. Yes, he did.

As a brand-new state in 1959, Alaska had a lot of catching up to do with the Lower 48 states, infrastructure-wise, especially given our immense size, no roads, and very primitive conditions in the Bush, where much still remains to be done. Stevens ascended to the Senate in 1968 and because of his forceful ways was able to bring much needed federal funds our way. You have to remember that this was pre-pipeline, pre-oil wealth, and the new state was struggling. He was so successful at it, that people here just kept electing him year after year, even as our needs lessened. Additionally, he was always supportive of the military presence up here, which was particuarly relevant during the Cold War years, given the USSR "rearing its head" over there, so much of the federal funding was military and defense-related.

There was also the fact that the state Democratic Party was completely ineffectual and couldn't get anyone of stature to run against him, many years not even bothering to put up a candidate.

In addition, Stevens and his staffers have always been responsive to individual Alaskans' needs so if we were having any issue cutting through federal red tape, he was always ready to help out. He even went to bat for me personally with a problem I was having with HUD in the early '90s.

Ted's mistake was not knowing when to quit and becoming sloppy with his ethics in his old age. Had he retired in 1992 or 2000, he would have retained his senior statesman status here, and would have continued to be revered as a great Alaskan...indeed, he was named "Alaskan of the Century" just a couple of years ago. Many old-timers continue to support him because he undeniably has done a lot for the state.

But it's definitely time to move on, and Mark, having been born and raised here and being the son of Nick Begich, who was a very popular congressman before his untimely death in 1972, would seem to be an excellent replacement.

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. I knew you'd be able to provide clarity. I guess I can sort of see their

affection for him, but he's 84 & a convicted felon. Forgive me if I remain baffled by the whole thing. :hi:

[Blue_In_AK]

7. Oh, I'm baffled, too, at this point.

The only thing I can think of is one word -- "loyalty." People think, "He did so much for us, now we need to stand by him in his time of need." Loyalty is a strong emotion.