Guys, the California exit polls were flawed

[ecstatic]

Black men made up 4% of the electorate, but the percentage voting for or against the measure was listed as N/A. For black women, the figure was 74% voting Yes. Then for black men and women combined, they put 70% voted Yes, but I'm wondering where they got their figure from if black men were not included in the sample.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CAI01p1

Nevertheless, since some of you continue to want to make threads about how horrible black and latino democrats are.... let's look at the situation more closely.

If we do go with the flawed exit polls given by CNN.com:

There were approximately 10,000,000 votes cast for or against the measure. 63% of the votes were cast by whites, 18% Latino, 10% blacks (6% black women), 6% Asian, 3% Other.

If 49% of whites voted yes, that represents 3,087,000 votes!
If 53% of Latinos voted yes, that represents 954,000 votes
If 74% of black women voted yes, that represents 450000 votes
If 49% of Asians voted yes, that represents 294,000 votes
If 51% of all other races voted yes, that represents 153,000 votes

The blame game can get pretty ugly, but if one wants to play it accurately, the blame clearly should be placed on white voters who cast approximately 3,000,000 yes votes.

But why play that game? We have a new president and a new chance to stop those type of discriminatory measures from being placed on the ballot ever again. I am confident that we are headed in a new direction now.

ET fix white calculation.

[tnlurker]

1. check your math

If there were 10,000,000 votes and whites represented 63% then they cast 6.3 million votes. Of that total 49% voted yes then you need to take 49% of 6.3 million which is 3.087 million votes not 5 million

[foo_bar]

2. if you read the fine print

In Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas the phone data are being blended with exit poll results, with the phone poll results weighted to represent the expected share of early vote in the electorate. <...>

In exit polling, sampling error also depends on how many poll sites have voters with the characteristic of interest. For example, black or high-income voters may be found clustered only in certain sample precincts. Sampling error may be up to three times larger for clustered characteristics.

http://surveys.ap.org/exitpolls/

So we're looking at +-9% margin of sampling error on "black...voters" with the above disclaimer, and a 1 in 20 chance of being completely useless at their 95% confidence level, not to mention blending exit polls with phone polls. Also to be fair, the state NAACP opposed proposition 2 in Florida, so it really is the religious community pushing this:

"We voted to oppose Amendment 2. ... e do not support any attempt to write discrimination into our state constitution," Nweze said. "We oppose any legislative or ballot initiative that proposes to treat people differently based on their membership in a particular group. And it's consistent with what our organization has stood for throughout its 99 years."

http://www.floridabaptistwitness.com/9396.article