October Surprise: Taliban peace treaty, and handover of Bin Laden?

[Hugabear]

We've heard reports that the Taliban are seeking some sort of peace deal. You just know that Bush is working feverishly to try and craft some sort of peace deal before the elections. Here are my guesses for what will happen:

* Taliban (including Mohammed Omar)are granted full immunity in exchange for handing over Al Qaeda
* The Taliban will agree to lay down arms, and to cease attacks in Afghanistan.


Bush will make a huge announcement about how he "won" the war in Afghanistan - another "Mission Accomplished" speech, and he'll be able to trot out a captured Bin Laden as his "legacy". Of course, the Taliban will simply re-arm themselves, and concentrate on taking over Pakistan - after all, that's where the nukes are, and a nuclear armed Taliban would be much stronger than they were in Afghanistan. But hey, that's for another president to worry about, not Bush, so why worry?

[AngryAmish]

1. How would this benefit McCain?

his main strength is the war on terror. If OBL is handed over, then most people will think we have won.

Like Churchill was kicked out when the war seemed won, wouldn't Americans think we can turn to Obama to deal with real issues?

[Hugabear]

8. I dunno, except that they would say "See, we did it"

And with a country that seems to place more emphasis on American Idol and Dancing with the Stars than the presidential debates, I wouldn't be surprised to see enough people caught up in the euphoria of a dead or captured Bin Laden that they would figure that the rethugs weren't so bad after all.

[AngryAmish]

12. You might be right.

[AndyA]

2. I think as much as the Taliban hates Bush, they would not come to an agreement

if one were in the works until after he left office. They would not want to somehow validate his legacy.

If such a deal were truly going to happen, I imagine they would delay it, just as happened with the Iran hostage deal when Reagan took office. Bush is truly hated all over the globe, I doubt anyone would seriously work with him at this point to do anything. The world wants new leadership in America, and it's so close now, a few more weeks isn't going to matter.

This would be a great announcement for Obama, though! ;)

[htuttle]

3. So, after 7 years of war, we're right back where we were in Oct 2001?

Bush rejects Taliban offer to hand Bin Laden over
Sunday October 14 2001
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001/oct/14/afghanistan.terrorism5


New offer on Bin Laden
Wednesday October 17 2001
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001/oct/17/afghanistan.terrorism11

BTW, Bush said, 'No' back then, obviously.

:eyes:

[no_hypocrisy]

4. Nah, don't think so. WE don't negotiate with "terrorists"!

[melody]

5. I want the phrase "October Surprise" stricken from the language

bin Laden is dead ... he'd have more freezer burn on him than a package of ten year old free venison steaks.

We heard this all before the 2006 election. Ain't going to happen.

[Bok_Tukalo]

6. Disarmed Afghanistan enemy and bin Laden's head on a platter

I'm sorry but I am not seeing the downside to this scenario.

[CrispyQ]

7. Bin Who?

Bin So Long I've Forgotten.

I don't think a Bin Laden capture on boosh's way out of office is going to do much to help McCain. First, why couldn't they catch him before this? And more importantly, who the fuck cares about Bin Laden when their house is almost in foreclosure & their 401k is down 12%? They may get a few votes from a stunt like this, but not enough to pull McCain out of the quicksand.

[Hugabear]

11. I agree, I think it would be a desperate ploy at best

And I would hope that if this were to happen, people would be able to see through it, or decide that with Al Qaeda out of the way, that we could let Obama focus more attention on the economy.

[lumberjack_jeff]

9. "Bush" used in the same sentence as "peace"?

I'm not buying.

That is not the way their minds work. "October surprises" are always unpleasant ones.

[annabanana]

10. "Daddy" Brezinski was on Morning Joe yesterday (day before?)

And he said that a "surge" would be a big mistake in Afganistan, that the Taliban (who are not wedded to Al Qaida) will need to be part of the solution.

[glinda]

13. Who paid for this bail out?

Is that where some of our money/Trillion went?

[Canuckistanian]

14. Uh-uh, don't think so

You can't really look at the Taliban and Al Qaeda as unified "organizations" with a clear hierarchical structure. They're VERY loosely associated local groups with a common goal of Jihad.

It's highly unlikely that they're all going to a) Take orders from a single individual or b) Give themselves up quietly.

As for handing over bin Laden, that may happen. But whoever DOES hand him over WILL get attacked.

[codjh9]

15. Whatever... I'm hoping the public isn't quite THAT stupid - to be swayed by whatever 'surprise'

they come up with.