Even if Obama wins, Roe vs Wade is probably not going to last 20 years.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

Look at the ages of the Supreme Court justices (N.B. I worked these out from birthdates, I may be a year out in some cases where they haven't had a birthday this year).

Pro Roe vs Wade:

J.P. Stevens - 88
R.B. Ginsburg - 75
D. Souter - 69
S. Breyer - 70
A. Kennedy - 72

Anti Roe vs Wade:

J. Roberts - 53
S. Alito - 58
A. Scalia - 72
C. Thomas - 60


All the pro-choice judges are over 69; all but one of the anti-abortion ones are 60 or under. And it only takes the balance to swing by one to tip the scales.

Unless we're very lucky, Roe vs Wade is likely to be overturned in a decade or too, and the supreme court is likely to aquire a more conservative tinge.

That said, the situation isn't quite as bad as it could be, because judges can choose when to retire, and hopefully liberal judges may choose to hang on for a few years if the president is a Republican, and, conversely, hopefully Stevens and maybe Ginsburg will choose to retire while Obama is still president, if he wins. But, still, the odds don't look good.

[tekisui]

1. I don't buy your argument.

When Obama is President, he will likely be replacing Stevens and Ginsberg, at least, with Liberal judges.

Scalia is getting up there and Roberts, although young, has a problem with seizures. At any rate, as long as we have Democrats nominating Liberal judges, it will never be R v W will never be threatened.

[Redbear]

2. I've heard that it's very likely that if Obama wins

Stevens, Ginsburg, and Souter will retire soon.

[elocs]

3. If Obama is elected and reelected, in those 8 years he could have the opportunity

to replace all of the oldest justices. The abortion genie has been out of the bottle now for 35 years and I don't see the American people allowing it to be put back into it in the same way that Prohibition could not survive even though it was imposed on the public.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

7. It's possible, but I don't see Scalia going under a Democrat if he can help it

And all the other conservatives are young.

*And* that relies on Obama winning twice in a row, the odds of which can't be much better than one in three.

If he wins once, which looks more likely, then he can at least replace some old liberals with some younger liberals, though, hopefully.

[Bake]

14. Yeah, but Scalia was pissed that he was passed over for Chief.

I could see him retiring in a snit. Thomas could follow, because there'd be no one to tell him what to do.

Bake

[Gwendolyn]

4. Holy frack!!

That doesn't look too good when you see the actual numbers. I wish these anti-choice fanatics understood what they're willing to give away. :banghead:

[lapfog_1]

5. Pessimistic sort, aren't you?

Obama is in for 8 years, pretty much assuring that all five (with the possible exception of Breyer and Souter) will retire from the bench. Thus, Obama may have to opportunity to name 5 (possibly 6 if Scalia falls over dead) to the Court. 5 that will be younger than the 4. 5 that will support Roe v. Wade.

Even should we lose the Presidency in 8 years, which I think will be unlikely, we should be safe on this subject for a generation. Hopefully to the point where the issue won't be a large one due to the fact that people won't get pregnant unless they want to (we are actually close to that now, only some of our people won't accept the notion that people have sex for other reasons than child bearing).

Anyway, as with almost everything. It's one day at a time. Let's look on the bright side, Obama wins and it's safe for a few more years.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

8. Somewhat, but not half as pessimistic as you are (over, I think) optimistic

The odds of Obama winning eight years are only about one in three, at best.

And I think it's unlikely all five liberal justices would choose to go within eight years even if he did.

And the idea that unwanted pregnancies are going to cease to happen strikes me as implausible, I'm afraid.

[lapfog_1]

Why bother to vote for him at all then?

The record on incumbents winning a second term is fairly clear.

Since FDR - President's that served more than one term...

Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, W. Bush.

President's that served for only 1 term or less

Kennedy - assassinated.

Ford - never elected to any national office.

Carter - failed to address the Iranian hostage situation.

H.W. Bush - Reagan's VP, economy got much worse under him, viewed as extension of Reagan.

So, of the Presidents since FDR, only TWO failed in their attempt to re-win the office they were elected to... Carter and HW Bush.

So that makes Obama's odds 1 in 3 of winning re-election in 2012?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

20. The next president is likely to preside over an economic catastrophe.

No matter who it is, and what policies they adopt, it's - if not inevitable - very likely indeed that the economy will get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better, and a lot of the blame will go to the next president.

They'll also take a lot of the flak for the disintegration of Iraq when American troops withdraw, especially if they're a Democrat.

[lapfog_1]

23. Just like FDR

As for Iraq... there have been HOW many bombings in the last 3 weeks or so? How many Iraqis killed? Hundreds that I know about.

Ask the average US citizen and they will tell that violence is WAAAY down in Iraq and that the "surge" worked.

I really don't think anybody gives a crap about Iraq, so long and only a few American soldiers die. Sad but true.

[Winterblues]

6. Why would Republicans want to overturn their greatest weapon?

Abortion is their greatest rallying cry. If they fixed that for the ultra conservative what would they do to get them on their side the next election? Republicans need Roe like Liberals need Common Sense..

[Old and In the Way]

9. If I were Barack, I'd get Congress to increase the number of Justices and pack itwith young, liberal

progressive SCJ's. Screw the radical right and their activist ideological judges who have never represented the spirit of our judicial system.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

10. Didn't Roosevelt try that?

I don't know the details, but I'm pretty sure the precedent suggests it's not a great idea.

[lapfog_1]

11. Yes, he did...

and that, probably more than anything, got the 22nd Amendment passed.

Well, he also pissed off the moneyed free market conservatives... who have been trying to undo all of his programs ever since.

[renie408]

12. OR...maybe not. n/t

[cali]

13. balderdash. If Obama is in office 8 years, he'll

likely have 3-5 appointments.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

17. The odds of that are only about 1 in 3, at best

And even if it does happen, those 3-5 appointments will all or nearly all be replacing liberal judges; all they'll do is stop the situation getting worse.

[EFerrari]

15. Your math is right but you may be underestimating American women.

We will never go back. Ever.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

18. I hope I'm not - on average, they're more anti-abortion than American men.

No matter how passionately you feel about something, you still only get one vote.

[still_one]

16. I disagree. You have six judges where anything can happen

Obama will choose young judges to replace those

[SmokingJacket]

19. It won't aquire a "conservative tinge" under a Democrat, though.

I don't really understand your argument. It will either stay the same or become more liberal.

It will DEFINITELY become more conservative under a Republican regime, though. Those old pro-Wade people can't hang on forever.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

21. My argument is that we're unlikely to see continuous Democratic rule for 16-20 years

Under a Democrat, the court won't get more liberal, because we'll see liberals replacing liberals; it will stay the same (modulo Scalia, who is unlikely to retire under a Democrat).

If any liberal justice retires under a Republican - and there are a lot who are likely to retire in the next decade or two - then it will get more conservative.

[SmokingJacket]

22. But I do think we'll have at least equal time...

And the more liberal ones will take the retirement opportunity under a Dem... I think.

Whereas the conservative ones will die young of sheer bitterness! ;)