Serious flooding in Puerto Rico - Carolinas get ready

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1095&tstamp=200809

but you'd never know if you're watching M$Greedia.
<snip>
Tropical disturbance 93L continues to dump torrential rains of up to four inches per hour on Puerto Rico. Storm total rainfall amounts have exceeded 20 to 30 inches in parts of southeast Puerto Rico where rivers are up to 14 feet above flood stage. Flash floods and mudslides have been reported across the east, southeast, and southeastern interior Puerto Rico. An additional 10-20 inches of rain is expected over western and southwestern Puerto Rico today, due to the very slow motion of 93L. The rains from 93L are the most that have fallen on the island since Hurricane Georges ten years ago (see below).

The models agree on a slow west-northwesterly motion for 93L today, and passage over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola may significantly disrupt the storm. By Tuesday, 93L is expected to turn north-northwest and head towards North Carolina. A major complicating factor in the long-range track forecast is the expected development of an extratropical storm off the coast of South Carolina. This low could bring hostile wind shear over 93L, weakening it, and potentially converting it into a subtropical storm. The two storms may rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending the extratropical low west-southwestward into the Southeast U.S., and 93L northwestwards towards North Carolina. This is the solution of the 06Z (2 am EDT) GFDL and HWRF model runs, which both take 93L into New Jersey on Friday night as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. I don't have a good feel for what will happen in this complicated situation, but it currently appears that coastal North Carolina may get tropical storm force winds from the extratropical storm beginning as early as Wednesday night. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical tropical storm affecting them late this week.

[mmonk]

1. Great. More flooding.

[malaise]

2. Conditions favorable for development

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO
PUERTO RICO...E HISPANIOLA...AND ADJACENT WATERS. A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER E HISPANIOLA...NEAR
19N68W...BASED ON SAN JUAN WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA INTO TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST.