Argue with me here. The reason I think Bush won't pardon Libby....

[Bucky]

I think it's out of character for Bush to give Scooter a slide (and of course I use the term "character for Bush" advisedly). All the beltway conservatives are convinced Bush is just going to wait until after the 08 election to pardon Libby. I think they're misunderestimating him. I don't think they've ever figured out that the impetuous manchild is not one of them. The Bushes have always treated campaign staffs and political allies as the hired help. You feel sorry for Reginald the Butler when he gets brain cancer and can't bring you the mint julips on the veranda any more, but that doesn't mean you'll visit him in the hospital. Maybe you'll send flowers if he's been with the family for a long time, tho.

Scooter's the butler--hell, he's really just the head butler's ex-chief of staff. Sure he took a bullet for the family, but then again he's paid to do that. They all are; that's the risk you take along with the priviledge of serving the family. But when it comes to pardons... well, maybe Big Junior's noblesse is not quite as oblige as movement conservatives want to think. Bush, like all 7th year presidents, is running for the history books. Pardoning Libby would be a smudge on his legacy as he sees it: the beginning of the long long (very long!) march of the Middle East toward American-style democracy. Pardoning Libby would be a nice service to him, but let's remember that Libby is supposed to serve Bush. It doesn't work the other way around.

Bush isn't one of them; they are only the foot soldiers that serve his greatness. In a sense he's using them, as great leader is entitled to do, as a great leader needs to do if he's going to get his greatness chiseled into the history monuments. Bush isn't going to pardon Libby because Libby has fallen from grace and is therefor a loser. And Bushes, don'tcha know, don't consort with losers. Conservatives are losers, too, it looks like. So it's probably time for the family to buy a new pet. This old toy doesn't please young mawster any more.

[rox63]

1. There are a couple of reason * might not pardon Libby

But I don't that is one of them. If Libby is pardoned, he could later be forced to testify against Bush or Cheney, because there would be no danger of self-incrimination. He wouldn't be allowed to "take the 5th" in court during actions taken against other members of the administration. And they are much more concerned about their own hides than Libby's.

[n2doc]

2. Simple- The ruling class never goes to Jail

He will be Pardoned. I suspect that Shrub will wait until December 08 to do it, and hope that the appeals process overturns the case. But there is no way on earth that Libby is going to spend 1 day in Jail.

[rwenos]

3. Only Reason Bush would Pardon Libby

You're right about the "hired help" approach, always used by the Bush family. This little twit even considers Jim Baker the "hired help." (Baker's a toady jerk, but a talented & energetic one.)

The reason Bush would pardon Libby would be as part of a deal to prevent Libby from giving up Cheney to the prosecutors. That would only happen if the palace guard thinks Fitzgerald et al. are getting close to Cheney. Doesn't smell like that yet.

If I were Libby's lawyer, I'd play for time -- run out the clock by filing motions and appeals, thus keeping my client out of jail, until a pardon is signed by Bush at 11:40 a.m. on January 20, 2009. Just before Bush's term ends.

The rest, in the words of Mark Twain, is applesauce.

[havocmom]

4. Libby took a bullet for the family

That is a metaphor for a future just as likely as a pardon, IMHO.

Scooter needs to watch his back. I take some comfort in that. He will never have any peace.

cheney has already gotten away with shooting one lawyer.

[Loge23]

5. These guys are good at crime.

They know how to play the system - just like most career criminals.
Libby, IMO, will never see a jail cell. The only wager is on when the idiot-in-chief will sign the pardon.
I like your reasoning and I think it's all pretty accurate, but I don't see the "deciders" behind the scenes taking a chance on Libby singing from the cage.

[pnwmom]

6. I don't think he'll pardon him till just before he leaves office.

Right now, whenever Bush is questioned about the Plame outing, he always spouts his "no comment because the legal case is ongoing" mantra. He wouldn't have any excuses left if Libby were pardoned.