Hurricane Ike

[malaise]

What a name -get ready.

[matt007]

1. followed by Josephine

Shits getting active really fast. :(

[Faygo Kid]

6. Josephine? How did they miss Daphne?

[dysfunctional press]

2. this one's supposed to stay north of cuba, so it should spare you guys the brunt this time...

as for florida, or the gulf- it remains to be seen...but if it heads toward new orleans- i'll bet that LOTS of people won't head evacuation orders this time around...
we could yet have another colossal bush failure before the selection.

[misanthrope]

5. Oh, they will spare no effort or resource...

...It's election year.

[dysfunctional press]

7. if another BIG storm zeroes in on the big easy and the levees fail...

they don't/won't have enough resources to do anything of consequence.

[emilyg]

3. Just updated to Category 3

[dysfunctional press]

8. holy shit- it hasn't even hit the warmer water yet either, has it?

this thing could become a MONSTER.

[malaise]

10. Yep but Hanna may weaken Ike a bit

Let's hope. This is one serious hurricane.

[Firespirit]

11. I do not like the southwest curve in its forecast track

Some very bad hurricanes have curved southwest before finally striking.

As for this burst of rapid intensification... I would have to look back at the past runs, but unless I am badly mistaken, none of the forecast models that give an intensity forecast anticipated it to hit this intensity this far out in the Atlantic.

It will go through an eyewall cycle tonight or tomorrow, in all likelihood, but after that all bets are off, because there are several complicating factors:

* Wind shear, though Cat-3 or Cat-4 intensity will certainly help it to fight that. Also the shear is supposed to be easterly instead of westerly, which is much less detrimental to hurricanes.

* Interaction with Hanna. Satellites would suggest that it could plow through it, but this is not how storm interaction occurs. It's an odd situation -- the weaker system has an enormous circulation, and the stronger system is small. Who can say what might happen if they got too close?

* The possibility of becoming an annular hurricane, a type of storm that has no feeder bands and typically a large eye that does not go through eyewall replacement cycles. This type of hurricane most often forms in the open ocean.

I said in a post in the other thread that I think this has Florida written all over it. I may be wrong, but that's what several of the better models are indicating.

[RollWithIt]

4. It's currently tracked to hit the East Coast and it will be moving fast.... PIC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/204313W_sm.gif

If it stays to the south and quickly moves over Florida... it could potentially reform in the Gulf.

[dysfunctional press]

9. it'll be interesting to see if it goes north or south of grand bahama...

have the miami high rises ever taken a DIRECT hit from a BIG storm?
didn't andrew end up a little south of there...? :shrug:

[TahitiNut]

13. Either way, it's sure to add to the miseries in Turks & Caicos.

They sure are getting hit this season.

[TahitiNut]

12. Well, it's a Big Turner and not a Tiny Turner, for sure.

:dunce: