The RealClearPolitics polls scare me

[DaveJ]

It shows Obama clearly in the lead among strong states, but among swing states, if McCain get OH, FL and one other state he wins (I stress that he wins, not the U.S.)

I know we are hoping for a better turnout, but I'm scared that McCain supporters are a bunch of nutjobs who will have nothing else to do that Tuesday while hard working Democrats are more likely to be at their jobs.

I'm really scared. The only reason he might win is 1) he is anti-choice, 2) he's pro war, and 3) he's white.

I know I'll get flamed for being defeatist, but I am starting to freak out. I don't know how we could let this occur. I tried my best to get through the Bush years, I still try to be a productive member of society, but I can't take this forever, I think I will lose all appreciation for others if this happens.

[mikita]

1. there's another reason he might win

we could witness another fixed election.

[DaveJ]

5. I'd leave but that will be pointless

I'd want to leave the U.S. if this happens, but with McCain in charge he'll make sure to marginalize any competing countries and the ones he can't, I probably won't be welcome in. So there will be noplace to go either.

[Kittycat]

2. Concern? Check. Fear? Check.

What do you plan on doing about it? Eating a hole in your own stomach - or putting your boots on the ground, and working to get Obama elected?

Phone bank
Canvas on your own, with the campaign or your local dems
Write Letters to the Editor
Attend County Dem Meetings to find out how you can get involved in local events & campaigning
Donate
Talk to everyone you know - and share your enthusiasm for finally having a chance to turn this country around by Electing Obama and other local/state Democrats.

Or, you can be concerned like too many of us were in 2004.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

3. !

:scared:

[KharmaTrain]

4. Look At Whose Got The Better Ground Game

Polls don't show it, the corporate media ignores it. Truth has always been that the party with the best ground game...that can get their voters to the polls wins elections. It can be argued this is what happened in Ohio in '04 and Florida in '00 that made the election close enough to steal.

Obama didn't win the nomination on good looks...he beat Clinton and the others by outworking, out organizing (his roots) and expanding the party base...beyond what pollsters and the corporate media can see. They're still fighting the last election, Obama is fighting this one.

If you're "scared", then I'd strongly suggest a great cure...get down to your local Democratic party office and start canvassing or get a phone list...talk to voters, share your concerns and passions...make a difference.

Cheers...

[DaveJ]

9. Since I'm in Illinois I'd have to travel out of state.

Not possible. You really think calling these nutjobs on the phone is going to make a difference? They're crazy.

[KharmaTrain]

12. I'm In Illinois As Well

I work on Congressional campaigns...and have seen my district go from red to blue and now are working on adjacent areas...we call it "liberating" more of the burbs. And yes, it makes a big difference when a person sees a face and is willing to discuss things in common rather than things that divide. Not every repugnican is a Limbo listener...and a lot of people are turned off by both parties...putting a voice and face does make a difference.

Many campaigns are also looking for phone banking. I have a friend in Portland who is disabled and he spends an hour or so a day during the last month of the campaign making calls all over the country. The DNC has a large list of candidates that could use the help...and in many cases these people have already been canvassed and have shown a positive response...no need to bother with the lost causes.

You can sit and swallow what the coporate media is throwing around, or see a whole different world out there. As the old saying goes, if you're not working on a solution, you're part of the problem.

Cheers...

[DaveJ]

14. Yeah, of course, I'm part of the problem

You see it's that kind of response (like the one below too) that makes me wonder if I do care which side wins or not.

I wonder if I'm the only one??

I mean, I guess I could booted for saying that, but sometimes I wonder.

Nobody can presume to know the circumstances that lead someone to where they are in life. Or what makes a person who he is. That's why I support social services for people who are in need, even if I know it will never benefit me. But sometimes I wonder why. Would these people who I want to help ever help me?

For all you know I could have some speech, hearing, or mental impairment, that prevents me from making calls and talking to people. I could have a slight combination of all 3 that doesn't qualify me for any help too.

But like a kneejerk reaction, you are prepared to call me part of the problem, or like the asshole below, lazy, who has no idea what I do.

I know that even if other people on the DU are ready to act so bitter toward one another, what hope is there that anyone else will listen to us?

Okay, let me put it this way, I've tried to talk a lot of people into switching parties but never succeeded. I guess I don't have that charisma. I would probably be more likely to make them go the opposite direction.

But I see since I don't have that charisma, I'm called PART OF THE PROBLEM and LAZY.

No way anyone could actually LISTEN to what I'm saying here either -- instead just treat me like a DUMBASS if I'm not molded from the cookie cutter.

This place seems like really bitter full of nothing but negativity, even toward their own party half the time.

I think maybe we should be a lot more kind and understanding if we want this party to be something people find worth electing.

[KharmaTrain]

17. Understand Where We Are

I would never call anyone here who has passions lazy. And when I say that "you're the problem"...it's paraphrasing something I've grow up in my life...that it's easy to bitch about a problem, it's both tougher and more important to confront it. If you allow negativity to contribute to your view of the world and life, you've let the batards who prey off that negativity win...to divide and demoralize. I don't know about you, but I refuse to let those bastards win...to live life negatively or cast blame. I was always taught that if you have a bitch, be one step better and try to come up with a solution.

Now you're on this site since you do care...or I hope so...and that its easy to get frustrated with a lot of the rhetoric that gets tossed around. I've long called this a water cooler where people will say things behind a keyboard that they would never say in public (unless they like getting their asses kicked or having no friends). Now I try to listen and learn here as much as I can, and I'm open to all types of suggestions as what can be done...but also keeping in mind the realities of an American political and social culture that is primarily self-absorbed. The purpose of a "Discussion Baord" is to do that...exchange ideas and thoughts...not to solve the problems, but to better understand them...and then each of us does what we believe is proper. So when you say "No one is listening" it's that someone isn't communicating.

You asked what can be done, as though all is already lost. I gave suggestions and if you don't want to accept it in the good faith it was offered, then so be it. We make our own heaven or hell on this rock...I expressed my thoughts and how I go about fighting my frustrations and anger. I wish you well on finding your own peace of mind.

[DaveJ]

19. It didn't seem like just an innocent paraphrase to me

Obviously, it was said in an indirect and gentle manner that I'm part of the problem, but it was still said.

My question was rhetorical. I was not literally asking, even though there was a question mark. I was saying I feel there's little point talking to these nutjobs. Maybe you have a different effect on them than I do though. I'm going by my own life experience.

Everyone is different, and I would like to be able to show the upmost respect for everyone and the different things they have to offer.

I mean if you were to look at my profile, you might see what I like to do, and try to apply my talents to your organization. Why has nobody ever bothered doing that?

BTW, I won't blame you if Obama does not get elected. So you do not have to worry about piece of mind whatsoever when it comes to me.

But I guess I have to try to 'find' it.

[liberal1973]

13. You're just lazy

[DaveJ]

15. Oh yeah, that's what the Reight likes to say

People's problems are the result of being lazy. Good call.

[BlooInBloo]

6. The American public scares me.

[StClone]

11. McCain's Negative Ads working

Make shit up. Put it in a book or on TV and viola!

[LVjinx]

7. IN hadn't been polled in a month

A lot of these states haven't been polled regularly. So these recent, huge shifts towards McCain, coming all at once, are creating an illusion of a sudden turn against Obama that might not really be there.

Obama dropping from 322 to 264 in a month looks bad... But that number was artificially inflated to begin with. The scary part is, at this same point in the race versus Bush, Kerry was in the 320's. We know how that turned out :(

I think this is the first time McCain has broken 270 on the RCP EV projection since it became clear he and Obama would be the respective nominees.

But the trends are what's important, and while the trend right now is against Obama we still have two conventions that should shake things up a bit.

[stillcool]

8. register some new voters?

or not.

[DaveJ]

10. Can someone point out a serious need for that?

I have a feeling the campaign is already calling everyone there is to be called.

If everyone's nuts, everyone's nuts. I don't know how to cure them of that.

[stillcool]

24. I think there is a serious need to register..

new voters. I think there's been a serious need for a long, long time, and phone calls do not register new voters. We can all do our own bit to kick the can further down the road. Someone once told me that a miracle is the slightest change in perception. Just talking to others about the serious predicament we are in, without even mentioning a candidate can plant the seed. Information is contagious.

[backscatter712]

16. Isn't RCP a conservative site?

They do tend to cherry-pick poll numbers that make McCain look good. That and their front page stories are mostly neo-con garbage like the Wall Street Journal and other Murdoch outfits...

[DaveJ]

18. I don't think it matters if it is

Unfortunately I believe polls, in general. People like to promote them when they are up, and say they are flawed if they're down.

To me it's just common sense that polls are usually going to try their best to be accurate, regardless, because their reputation depends on their accuracy.

Most the polls are about the same that I've seen in their 3 point difference.

[Common Sense Party]

20. Yes, it's conservative, but, no, they don't cherry-pick.

They have shown every major poll that has shown Obama stomping McSame.

For example:
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 07/31 - 08/18 -- 45.5 42.5 Obama +3.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 08/15 - 08/18 1248 RV 45 43 Obama +2
Gallup Tracking 08/16 - 08/18 2648 RV 45 44 Obama +1
Rasmussen Tracking 08/16 - 08/18 3000 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Quinnipiac 08/12 - 08/17 1547 LV 47 42 Obama +5
IBD/TIPP 08/04 - 08/09 856 RV 43 38 Obama +5
Pew Research 07/31 - 08/10 2414 RV 46 43 Obama +3


But what they do is really meaningless, especially on the national level. They lump together different polls by different pollsters that use VERY different polling techniques, methodologies and samples, and then average them. It doesn't mean squat.

[Median Democrat]

21. Should Be Scared - We Need To Work Our A*&&^ Off

No Democrat has won a majority of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and that was by only 0.1%. Anyone who is expecting this to be cakewalk is deluded. People are partisan. About 40% of the population is going to vote Republican automatically no matter what. Thus, only 10% are really in play, and they are the true undecideds who as a matter of philosophy will not pick a candidate until they are about to vote. Well, voting begins in October due to absentee ballots, so it is now time to start giving, knocking doors, and filling MSM blogs with posts supporting the campaign.

[DaveJ]

22. Yes, I'm already obtaining some pre-hindsite though

Based on my sensitive reaction to a gentleman above (sorry), it occurred to me that a lot more could have been done but it's probably too late now.

Nobody ever really gave a shit that I enjoy web and application development, what I like to do is ignored here about as much as it is ignored in real life.

I probably could have helped the campaign in that regard, perhaps drawn more attention to our cause.

I blame myself for not going after the jobs too, of course, which I would have done for free. But, I have never heard a call for people with my skills.

It's always the talkers and the bloggers who get all the praise. It's always the ones with charisma, not people like me.

People who like to blog or write are always being called for, but people who develop the sites that people could have used to network, strategize, promote the positive attributes of the party... nah.

At least children get to be seen and not heard. I guess I'm meant to be seen nor heard.

[Flabbergasted]

23. Yes McCain may win but Obama has a better chance.....

I believe that when the undecided go to vote 60% dem and this will make the difference.