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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:32 AM
Original message
The Ivins Anthrax Story is about to get very technical...
Edited on Tue Aug-05-08 08:34 AM by Junkdrawer
The big, nagging question many of Ivins fellow scientists have been asking is this:

"Yes Dr. Ivins had access to anthrax. But he didn't have access to weaponized anthrax. And he didn't have the equipment needed to weaponize anthrax. So, if he did it, and did it alone, where did he get the weaponized anthrax?"

The FBI's answer will be:

"The anthrax wasn't "weaponized". It was simply dried. And Ivins did check out a lyophilizer, a type of freeze-dryer."
Now, aside from the fact a lyophilizer is a fairly standard tool for anthrax vaccine researchers, there remains that nagging question:

"Was the Anthrax weaponized?"

Well, as it turns out, the FBI labs are among the few who think it wasn't:


Controversy over coatings and additives

Early reports suggested the anthrax sent to the Senate had been "weaponized." On October 29, 2001, Major General John Parker at a White House briefing said that silica had been found in the Daschle anthrax sample. Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge in a White House press conference on November 7, 2001, told reporters that tests indicated a binding agent had been used in making the anthrax.(13) Later, the FBI claimed a "lone individual" could have weaponized anthrax spores for as little as $2,500, using a makeshift basement laboratory.(14)

In late October, 2001, ABC chief investigative correspondent Brian Ross several times linked the anthrax sample to Saddam Hussein; on October 26, "sources tell ABCNEWS the anthrax in the tainted letter sent to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle was laced with bentonite. The potent additive is known to have been used by only one country in producing biochemical weapons — Iraq.... it is a trademark of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's biological weapons program...The discovery of bentonite came in an urgent series of tests conducted at Fort Detrick, Maryland, and elsewhere," (15) on October 28, stating that "despite continued White House denials, four well-placed and separate sources have told ABC News that initial tests on the anthrax by the US Army at Fort Detrick, Maryland, have detected trace amounts of the chemical additives bentonite and silica." (16), and several times on October 28 and 29.(17)

These reports were cited in the press, starting almost immediately (18), (19) and for several years following, even after the invasion of Iraq,(20),(21),(22) as evidence that Saddam not only possessed "weapons of mass destruction", but had actually used them in attacks on the United States.

A number of press reports appeared suggesting the Senate anthrax had coatings and additives.(23)(24)(25) Newsweek reported the anthrax sent to Senator Leahy had been coated with a chemical compound previously unknown to bioweapons experts.(26) Two experts on the Soviet anthrax program, Kenneth Alibek and Matthew Meselson, were consultants with the Justice Department and were shown electron micrographs of the anthrax from the Daschle letter. They replied to the Washington Post article "FBI's Theory on Anthrax Is Doubted" (October 28, 2002), reporting that they saw no evidence the anthrax spores had been coated and that more careful investigation of the specimens is necessary.(27)

A week after Meselson and Alibek had their letter published in the Washington Post, the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP), one of the military labs that analyzed the Daschle anthrax, published an official newsletter stating that silica was a key aerosol enabling component of the Daschle anthrax.(28) The AFIP lab deputy director, Florabel Mullick, said "This (silica) was a key component. Silica prevents the anthrax from aggregating, making it easier to aerosolize. Significantly, we noted the absence of aluminum with the silica. This combination had previously been found in anthrax produced by Iraq." Unlike naturally occurring anthrax the coated spores were able to reaerosolize. A study published in JAMA on December 11, 2002 showed simulated office activities conducted in the Daschle suite more than three weeks after the initial incident resulted in up to a 65 fold increase in airborne spores over samples collected at the same locations during a semiquiescent state. (29)

In February 2005, Stephan P. Velsko of Lawrence Livermore National Labs published a paper titled "Physical and Chemical Analytical Analysis: A key component of Bioforensics".(30) In this paper, Velsko illustrated that different silica coating processes gave rise to weaponized anthrax simulants that look completely different from one another. He suggested that the difference in the look of products could provide evidence of what method the lab that manufactured the 2001 anthrax used, and thus provide clues to the ultimate origin of the material.

In May 2005, Academic Press published the volume "Microbial Forensics" edited by Roger Breeze, Bruce Budowle and Steven Schutzer.(31) Bruce Budowle is with the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) Forensic Science Laboratory. Although the volume does not directly discuss the silica coatings found in the Senate anthrax of 2001, the contributors to the chapters discuss in detail the forensics of silica coated weaponized bacterial spores. Pictures are shown of silica weaponized bacillus spores that are both mixed with silica and fully coated with silica. Pictures of weaponized Clostridium spores coated with Colloidal, spherical silica are also shown. Again, the aim of these studies is to define the forensic fingerprints of silica weaponization processes.

In July 2005, Dr Michael V Callahan (who is presently with DOD's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)) gave a briefing before the Subcommittee on Prevention of Nuclear and Biological Attack.(32) Dr Callahan stated "First, the attack illustrated that advanced expertise had readily been exploited by a bioterrorist; the preparation in the Daschle letter contained extraordinarily high concentrations of purified endospores. Second, the spore preparation was coated with an excipient which helped retard electrostatic attraction, thus increasing aerosolization of the agent."

The August 2006 issue of Applied and Environmental Microbiology contained an article written by Dr. Douglas Beecher of the FBI labs in Quantico, VA.(33) The article, titled "Forensic Application of Microbiological Culture Analysis to Identify Mail Intentionally Contaminated with Bacillus anthracis spores ," states "Individuals familiar with the compositions of the powders in the letters have indicated that they were comprised simply of spores purified to different extents." The article also specifically criticizes "a widely circulated misconception" "that the spores were produced using additives and sophisticated engineering supposedly akin to military weapon production." The harm done by this misconception is described this way: "This idea is usually the basis for implying that the powders were inordinately dangerous compared to spores alone. The persistent credence given to this impression fosters erroneous preconceptions, which may misguide research and preparedness efforts and generally detract from the magnitude of hazards posed by simple spore preparations." However, after this article had appeared the editor of Applied and Environmental Microbiology, L. Nicholas Ornston, stated that he was uncomfortable with Beecher's statement in the article since it had no evidence to back it up and contained no citation.(34)

In April 2007 an analysis of the spore preparation was published in the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence.(35) This analysis by Dr. Dany Shoham and Dr. Stuart Jacobsen pointed out that the sophisticated additives and processing used to create the weapon likely could be used to trace the origin.

In August 2007 Dr. Kay Mereish, UN Chief, Biological Planning and Operations, published a letter in Applied and Environmental Microbiology titled "Unsupported Conclusions on the Bacillus anthracis Spores".(36) This letter, published in the same journal as FBI scientist Douglas Beecher (see paragraph above), points out that the statements made by Dr. Beecher in his article on the lack of additives were not backed up with any data. She suggested that Dr. Beecher publish a paper with analytical data showing the absence of silica or other additives. Such data would include SEM images of the pure spores as well as EDX spectra and EDX images showing the absence of any foreign additives such as silica or the elements silicon and oxygen. Dr. Mereish referenced a 2006 CBRN, Counter-Proliferation and Response meeting in Paris where a presenter announced that an additive was present in the attack anthrax that affected the spore's electrical charges.

Fox News reported in March 2008 that an email written by a scientist at Fort Detrick revealed details of the powder preparation; (37) these details appear to be consistent with a highly specialized powder. The Fox News report said "But in an e-mail obtained by FOX News, scientists at Fort Detrick openly discussed how the anthrax powder they were asked to analyze after the attacks was nearly identical to that made by one of their colleagues. "Then he said he had to look at a lot of samples that the FBI had prepared ... to duplicate the letter material," the e-mail reads. "Then the bombshell. He said that the best duplication of the material was the stuff made by (name redacted). He said that it was almost exactly the same … his knees got shaky and he sputtered, 'But I told the General we didn't make spore powder!'" The Fox News report added that around 4 persons, all with connections to Fort Detrick, were being looked at as suspects by the FBI.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_anthrax_attacks


So, of course the NY Times only mentions the 2006 FBI study. Now, myself, given the kind of "evidence" that's been leaked over the last few days, I don't think I'm willing to give the FBI that much credit.

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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:43 AM
Response to Original message
1. Just how much technical information on anthrax can be disclosed
...without making the classified secret weaponing process public and if those secrets are compromised how long will it take before the next anthrax attacks on the U.S. public occur? :wtf:
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I don't want to know how to weaponize anthrax. But I DO want it known...
that the FBI's conclusions are not unchallenged, or even the consensus opinion.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:48 AM
Response to Original message
3. I did a lot of digging at the time
and what I found boiled down to this.

First, anthrax has a thick, waxy coating that makes it both heavy and sticky. That's why even among people with high exposure, like raw wool processors, it's likely to be a skin infection instead of the inhaled, deadly form of the disease. That coating enables anthrax to lie dormant for years in the soil.

Second, drying the coating, using silica (or Bentonite, for Iraq) or any other surface treatment doesn't alter the fact that the coating is still there and makes the spores relatively heavy. An envelope of anthrax spores treated in this manner would mostly sit there, contaminating the person who opened the envelope and the desk upon which it was opened. There would have been little risk of environmental contamination when the envelopes were filled or processed by the post office.

Third, in order to turn anthrax into a weapon, the coating must be completely removed. The process to do that is still highly guarded. It can only be accomplished in a high level containment lab because once the coating is removed, the spores will volatize through the environment and cause widespread contamination, something that in fact happened in each instance as everything from post office sorting equipment to the ventilation systems in Congressional buildings were contaminated.

There is no way for this stuff to have been placed into envelopes outside that CIA lab and they're finally admitting that. There is no bathtub process that would have produced anthrax capable of the contamination that occurred, and they've finally admitted that.

The bottom line is that it isn't easy to make anthrax a weapon or handle it once it is done. It could only have been produced and distributed from that CIA lab. There were enough safeguards in place to assure that a lone nutcase wouldn't have the freedom to do it.

Finally, the entire White House staff started taking Cipro before the attacks occurred. Cipro is not a benign drug. They knew what was coming and where it was coming from.

The whole picture is damning. Performing a post mortem character assassination on one of the lab's scientists is not going to change that.

The only question is how many times the American public is going to swallow that implausible "lone nutcase" scenario on obvious conspiracies.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thanks. Great Info...
:hi:
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Tandalayo_Scheisskopf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. And in the midst of all this...
Cheney is practically invisible. The former SECDEF. The man who knew what assets the country had and where and how to get to them. The man to whom every road leads, in everything.
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bdf Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:09 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. Do we KNOW those ventilation systems were contaminated
They would have decontaminated them as a precaution just in case the lab made a mistake.

Alternative possibility. They knew it wasn't weaponized anthrax because they were behind it. The full decontaminations made it appear to the public to be even scarier than it actually was.
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #3
14. I remember reading at the time that the WH was taking Cipro. Does
that claim have a foundation we can quote with confidence?
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. All the major media sources have long since put the story
deep into their archives and I don't have the kind of money it takes to bail them all out. That leaves blogs.

One that gives specific dates is http://www.oldthinkernews.com/Articles/oldthinker%20news/dusting_off_the_anthrax_attack_c.htm

While it is possible that the paranoia of the time, fed heavily by the rantings of Curveball and Israeli intelligence could have caused the entire White House staff to panic and start downing a powerful antibiotic with numerous side effects--bad enough the drug now has a black box warning--to treat the remote possibility of infection by a specific organism, it is unlikely.

After all, our own intelligence community knew that Saddam's experiments trying to abrade the outer coating of anthrax by tumbling it with Bentonite had been ineffective and had long since been dropped.
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #16
28. Thanks, I think there should be a Congressional hearing to find out
what the WH received to cause them to take the antidote. I think we need answers under oath.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. The fact they felt they needed Cipro is interesting, too
since most broad spectrum antibiotics that are cheaper and safer will kill the infection if it is caught in time.

Rumsfeld needs to be asked about that one...
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KansDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. "Rumsfeld needs to be asked about that one..."
His answer will probably be his (in)famous "unknown unknowns."
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #14
33. See post #26 below. n/t
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wvbygod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #3
23. White House staff started taking Cipro before the attacks occurred
I have looked and found nothing that confirms this notion. Where did you find the smoking cipro prescription?
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Try here:
...

At least some White House personnel were given Cipro six weeks ago. White House officials won't discuss who might be receiving the anthrax-treating antibiotic now.

On the night of the Sept. 11 attacks, the White House Medical Office dispensed Cipro to staff accompanying Vice President Dick Cheney as he was secreted off to the safety of Camp David, and told them it was "a precaution," according to one person directly involved.

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20011023/aponline201158_000.htm

There was a Judicial Watch suit to find out:

http://www.judicialwatch.org/1967.shtml

Don't know the result of the lawsuit...
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Marie26 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
32. What CIA lab are you referring to? nt
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 08:59 AM
Response to Original message
6. From the information in this article -
Ivins couldn't have produced silica coated anthrax spores of this degree with a lypholizer. The spores weren't simply dried. The Daschle anthrax was a highly sophisticated batch of anthrax, as evidenced by numerous reports.

FYI - Good Morning America reported this morning that Ivins "rented" a dehydration machine. They offered no substantiating evidence and didn't say where they go the info.

Whole story stinks.
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MetaTrope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. You mean Good Morning America actually managed to move past the "sorority obsession" aspect?
Color me amazed!
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Supersedeas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:12 AM
Response to Original message
9. and even if you accept the FBI's lets-close-the-case, it's Weaponized argument,
the entire case is still circumstantial as to whether Ivins was the guy who weaponized it.

So, the FBI would have us leap and leap and leap and leap and leap to reach Ivins and then close the case, when we could just as well leap and leap and leap and leap and leap and reach 4 to 10 other people at Fort Detrick.

What was the motive for targeting the Democratic leadership -- got motive, Mr. Mukasey?
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. That's just it. The FBI now is saying it WASN'T weaponized...

Despite speculation that the anthrax had a special coating to make it more deadly, an F.B.I. scientist, Douglas Beecher, published an article in 2006 saying no such sophisticated additives had been found. That finding broadened the number of scientists and technicians who could have made the anthrax, another obstacle to a quick resolution.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/washington/05anthrax.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2&em&oref=slogin
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Wizard777 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #10
30. That's just it. The coating makes it LESS deadly. Also the contamination doesn't conform to coated
anthrax. The Silica is not so much a coating but something America uses to remove the natural coating. Iraq uses Bentonite to remove it. Once you remove that coating it's considered to weaponized. So as usual the FBI sounds like they don't know what in the hell they're talking about.
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robinlynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. 40 people had access. 10 worked there every day and another 30 were in and out of the
lab, according to the pbs news. not saying they are entirely credible, becuase they also say matter of factly that he committed suicide, although no autopsy was done...
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UTUSN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
11. K&R #4. One more to go. n/t
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JohnyCanuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:38 AM
Response to Original message
12. K&R
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
13. Liars need good memories, but so do truth seekers.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
17. Don't miss the LTTE in this kpete thread...
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
18. So this only proves there was a lot of misinformation.
I think we can summarily dismiss any statement, or any person, trying to link the anthrax to iraq, for example.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. I predict that the "was the anthrax weaponized?" issue will get bigger in the coming days...
If the anthrax WASN'T weaponized, then it's conceivable that Ivins or someone like him could have produced the anthrax. (Motive and how he mailed it is a different story).

If it WAS weaponized (and the preponderance of the evidence to date says it was), then it's inconceivable Ivins alone could have done it.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
20. The FBI are claiming, or seem to be claiming, they can now
track the anthrax to a person. Greenwald has an expert refuting that:
snip

Clearly, Ivins' legitimate work researching anthrax vaccines entailed the use of a lyopholizer. As the commenter notes, "If you google 'lyophilize' and 'anthrax', most of the pages returned are about anthrax vaccines, which is what Dr. Ivins was working on at Ft. Detrick." Indeed, even the Post article -- while breathlessly touting the profound importance of Ivins' incriminating possession of a lyopholizer -- says this:

He did at least one project for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency that would have given him reason to use the drying equipment, according to a former colleague in his lab.

This morning I spoke with Dr. Luke D. Jasenosky of the Harvard School of Medicine's Immune Disease Institute. Dr. Jasenosky said that it is "very common" for someone engaged in the vaccine research of the type Ivins did to use a lyopholizer, and that he "would actually be surprised if they weren't using one."

and, snip

All sorts of similar questions are raised by the onslaught of other FBI leaks. Dr. Jasenosky told me that he finds claims of some "ground-breaking" new DNA technique, or some "big breakthrough" to be "quite strange," given that what the news accounts have described is nothing more than an incremental extension of molecular analysis techniques that have existed for several years and which, at most, appear to have only enabled existing techniques to be conducted more rapidly. He further emphasized that even the most sophisticated DNA tests could never link anthrax to any particular scientist, and that no assessment of the FBI's assertions is possible without a thorough review of its underlying data. Dr. Meryl Nass said the same thing today: "Let me reiterate: No matter how good the microbial forensics may be, they can only, at best, link the anthrax to a particular strain and lab. They cannot link it to any individual."

* * *

The Gang that Can't Shoot Straight is going to try to baffle us with b#llshit and they're going to fail.
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
21. They seem to be ramping up both the technical and perv
aspects at the same time.

As each aspect of this gets questioned, they leak a new one in a piecemeal fashion.

Interesting given that the FBI spokesperson specifically said that's what they weren't going to do:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-anthrax-evidenceaug04,0,1323855.story

John Miller, an FBI assistant director, declined Sunday to address criticism of the investigation, one of the largest and most costly in bureau history.

"As soon as the legal constraints barring disclosure are removed, we will make public as much information as possible," Miller said in a statement. "We will do that at one time, in one place. We will do that after those who were injured and the families of those who died are briefed, which is only appropriate."

He added, "I don't believe it will be helpful to respond piecemeal to any judgments made by anyone before they know a fuller set of facts."




They are trying to get an overall idea of guilt planted in people's minds. They are not succeeding. I don't think they anticipated the sceptic blowback from everyone from other scientists to the anthrax victims.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. Translation:
"As soon as we separate the downright laughable from the remotely plausible with selective leaks, we'll present our case to the public. And not a minute before."
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. That's it in a nutshell.
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
24. yes, indeed--after loudly insisting in the beginning it was weaponized for the media,
Edited on Tue Aug-05-08 12:03 PM by librechik
they quietly retracted that claim.
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screembloodymurder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-08 12:12 PM
Response to Original message
27. All you need to know.
"It was not an interview," Byrne said. "It was a frank attempt at intimidation."

Byrne said he believed Ivins was singled out partly because of his personal weaknesses.

"If they had real evidence on him, why did they not just arrest him?"
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unpossibles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
34. interesting
thanks for the info
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suffragette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-08 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
35. Here comes the "new science" explanation
to explain away why they "are sure" it was him AND why it took so long.

Very convenient for them.

:sarcasm:
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