There is a famous street card game scam called Three-Card Monte in which the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money if he can find the money card among three face-down cards. Election Fraud is analagous to Three-Card Monte. What you see is not what you get. In this game
the voter is the mark. Election models which project the True Vote are doomed to fail in a Three-Card Monte election.
Based on the latest state polls, projections and win probabilities, the 5000–election trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that Obama will win 53.73% of the two-party vote and 370 electoral votes
—if the election is fraud-free and held today. But assuming the
base case scenario that he will win
60% of the undecided votes (UVA), he will have
54.68% with
404 electoral votes. The national average 5-poll projection is that he will win
53.60% (60% UVA).
Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%. The win probability is calculated for both the electoral and popular vote — and they match which confirms the methods and makes sense intuitively. The calculations are based on a Monte Carlo simulation (electoral vote) and normal distribution (popular vote). “What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 MC simulation trials, the win probability is 100%. The methods are described below.
There are a number of election forecasting sites on the Internet which give McCain more than a 3% chance of winning the election. This is a mathematical impossibility (see below) since Obama is leading by over 6% nationally. Whether or not the inflated McCain win probabilities are due to mathematical error, the sites are providing potential cover for another stolen election. A popular vote margin of 6% will result in an electoral vote win 99.98% of the time.
Some sites base their probabilities on the election voting markets which currently give McCain a 30-40% chance of winning. Unless the market participants have foreknowledge that the election will once again be stolen, the inflated McCain prices (probabilities) only reflect the “horserace” propaganda that is fed to them by the media.
Fifty state polls (
zogby.com and
electoral-vote.com) and 5 national polls (
realclearpolitics.com) confirm that Obama is leading by 54–46% with an increasing trend over the past six weeks. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is in effect. The more polls, the more samples, the greater the confidence that the sample mean is close to the True Mean. So if we accept what the LLN is telling us: with 54% of the two-party vote, Obama is an absolute 100% lock to win the Electoral Vote.
Monte Carlo determined this relationship between Obama’s aggregate average 2-party vote share and the electoral vote:
Vote share
50.0
50.5
51.0
51.5
52.0
52.5
53.0
53.7
54.7
Avg Elect vote
263
276
289
301
315
329
346
370
404
Win Probability
39.1
64.5
83.8
94.9
99.8
99.9
99.98
100.0
100.0
This is why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method is used to calculate the electoral vote win probability and expected (mean) EV:
- Unlike academic election models which attempt to forecast the popular vote based on a regression analysis using economic and political time-series months in advance of the election, MC determines the probability of winning the electoral vote based on the latest polls right up to the election,
- MC uses individual state win probabilities, as opposed to the simple win-no win scenarios in media-created election models,
- MC is a powerful tool for analyzing complicated systems when analytical solutions are impractical or impossible.
2008 Election CalculatorThis model projects that
Obama will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m (54 - 45%).
Basic input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The
True Vote is calculated using slightly modified
2004 NEP vote shares.
Voted Est 2008 Calculated True Vote
in 2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
THE 2008 ELECTION MODELThis
State
National
State
National
Monte Carlo
Simulation
Update
Poll
5-poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
7/18/2008
Wtd Avg
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote
Obama
45.59
47.60
54.68
53.60
404
McCain
39.26
42.40
45.32
46.40
134
Sensitivity Analysis
Undecided voter allocation scenario
Obama
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
State model: Projected aggregate vote share
Obama
53.17
53.73
54.68
55.44
56.20
McCain
46.83
46.27
45.32
44.56
43.80
MoE Probability Obama wins popular vote (NORMDIST)
2.00%
99.90
99.99
100.0
100.0
100.0
3.00%
98.07
99.26
99.89
99.98
100.0
Monte Carlo Probability Obama wins electoral vote
Trial Wins
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
Probability
100
100
100
100
100
Obama Electoral Vote
Average
351
370
404
429
450
Median
348
369
404
431
452
Maximum
441
456
477
491
498
Minimum
282
287
329
344
371
95% Confidence Limits
Upper
398
420
456
478
491
Lower
304
321
352
381
408
States Won
30
32
33
38
39
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
EV:
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
Total
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
45.6 %
36
41
42
37
54
40
48
90
50
39
38
61
39
50
39
51
32
39
37
46
54
54
50
54
44
48
48
36
42
40
47
49
50
44
43
43
37
46
46
55
42
43
36
39
31
63
44
53
37
50
40
McCain
39.3 %
50
45
39
47
30
38
32
9
41
43
44
31
52
37
40
41
52
44
56
30
30
29
42
37
50
45
43
52
40
37
36
33
37
48
43
38
42
37
36
31
41
47
41
42
55
29
39
41
45
39
53
Diff
6.3 %
(14)
(4)
3
(10)
24
2
16
81
9
(4)
(6)
30
(13)
13
(1)
10
(20)
(5)
(19)
16
24
25
8
17
(6)
3
5
(16)
2
3
11
16
13
(4)
0
5
(5)
9
10
24
1
(4)
(5)
(3)
(24)
34
5
12
(8)
11
(13)
BO EV
343
10
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
11
3
5
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
8
3
13
11
10
Diff < 8%
248
3
10
9
27
15
11
8
17
6
11
3
5
4
15
3
20
7
8
3
11
34
13
5
Obama
54.7 %
44.4
49.4
53.4
46.6
63.6
53.2
60
55.4
90.6
49.8
48.8
65.8
44.4
57.8
51.6
55.8
41.6
49.2
41.2
60.4
63.6
64.2
54.8
59.4
47.6
52.2
53.4
43.2
52.8
53.8
57.2
59.8
57.8
48.8
51.4
54.4
49.6
56.2
56.8
63.4
52.2
49
49.8
50.4
39.4
67.8
54.2
56.6
47.8
56.6
44.2
Prob
100.0 %
0.3
38.2
95.5
4.5
100.0
94.5
100.0
99.7
100.0
46.0
27.4
100.0
0.3
100.0
78.8
99.8
0.0
34.5
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.2
100.0
11.5
86.4
95.5
0.0
91.9
97.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
27.4
75.8
98.6
42.1
99.9
100.0
100.0
86.4
30.9
46.0
57.9
0.0
100.0
98.2
100.0
13.6
100.0
0.2
EV
404
10
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
11
3
5
4
15
5
31
3
20
7
21
4
8
34
3
13
11
10
Obama
13
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
2008 Election Fraud Scenario AnalysisBut there’s a catch: It’s called
Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.- Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically
impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 8% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.
Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged
Recorded vote. Kerry won the
True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get.
Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and
switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted, McCain would need at least 8% of Obama’s votes switched to his column in order to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards, levers and central tabulators. Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%). For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state — an admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation to the resulting EV and popular vote.
Calculation of Win ProbabilitiesIn each election trial, the winner is determined by a random process based on state win probabilities which are in turn determined by the latest poll. For example, assume that Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 51% of the popular vote (based on the latest polls). Many electoral vote calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine his projected electoral vote total or just say it’s the too-close to call. But that is an over-simplification; Based on his projected share, Obama has a 69% probability of winning Florida; McCain has a 31% chance%.
Obama’s 69% FL win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one. If the RND is less or equal to 0.69, Obama wins Florida’s 27 EV; otherwise McCain wins. In each election trial, the RND/ win probability comparison is applied to each state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.
The
Popular Vote win probability (for a state and the national aggregate) is calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. Obama’s popular vote win probability closely matches his Monte Carlo EV win probability. Obama’s projected two-party vote share and the polling MoE/1.96 (Stdev) are the only required inputs to the function.
- Obama’s projected base case (60% UVA) vote share is V=54.68%.
Assuming a 2.0% polling MoE, his popular vote win probability is 100%.
The Excel function is: = NORMDIST (54.68%, 50%, 2.0%/1.96, true)
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 99.89%
- For the 50% UVA projection scenario, V=53.17%; the win probability is 99.90% (2.0% MoE).
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 98.07%
Obama’s win probability in each state is also calculated by the normal distribution.
The probabilities are based on 4% margin of error and the projected state vote share.
For example, assume that Obama is tied with McCain in the latest polls at 45%.
With 60% of the undecided vote, he is projected to win the 2-party vote by 51-49%.
His probability of winning is 69%: =NORMDIST (.51, .50, .04/1.96, TRUE)
The National Model calculates the moving average projection based on 5 national polls. The base case 60% UVA scenario is assumed. The model provides a further confirmation of the State Model probabilities. The normal distribution function calculates win probabilities for all the moving averages using the MoE of the latest poll.
- Rasmussen poll (3000 sample) has a 1.79% MoE. Based on the 53.60% moving average projection, there is a 99.996% probability that Obama will win the popular vote: 99.996% = NORMDIST (53.60%, 50%, 1.91% /1.96, true)
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama:McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval. 2004 Election Model ReviewOn Election Day 2004, Bush had a
48% approval rating.
He won the official vote by
62 – 59m (122.3m recorded). But according to the 2004 Census,
125.7m votes were cast. Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted. The majority (70–80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts. Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9–61.5m.
The
model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
- In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
- The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
- Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
- Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
- The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
- E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
- Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote count margins.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures). Unadjusted Exit Poll Recorded Vote Count
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin KEV WPE/WPD
WtdAv TOTAL 51.95 47.05 4.91 337 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 7.37 %
- exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush and none for Kerry (equivalent to exceeding a 3% MoE)
- exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
- was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
- was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.
The
1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by
48 –
51%.- The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
- The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.
Other links:
2004 Election Model Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model tablesConfirmation of A Kerry LandslideElection Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQHAVA Look: A Simple, Verifiable, Open Source, Paper Ballot Vote-Recording & Counting System Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-20042004 Interactive Simulation ModelA Polling Simulation Model2000-2004 County Vote Database
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
