New war brewing, U.S., Israel take dangerous steps

[Jackpine Radical]

Goddammit, it's coming, people! We are fucking going to be at war with Iran before Bush leaves office. Make book on it. They're going to use nukes on what they call "hard" sites. Migod, I want to scream or something. Tonight this piece from the Edmonton Sun cracked through all my semi-denial ("Nah. They aren't really gonna do it," I been saying.) Fuck yeah, people, they're really gonna do it. I think I may just go out into the rain and scream. And scream.

by Eric Margolis

GENEVA -- The U.S., Israel and Iran are playing a very dangerous game of chicken that soon could result in a new Mideast war. U.S. intelligence has concluded that Iran is not working on nuclear weapons. But the Bush administration and Israel, recently joined by France, are issuing increasingly loud threats of military action to frighten Iran into halting its nuclear enrichment program.
...
Senior Israeli officials are openly threatening to attack Iran's nuclear installations before President George W. Bush's term expires. Early, this month Israel staged a large, U.S.-approved exercise using F-15s and F-16s to rehearse an attack over 900 miles - precisely the distance to Iran's nuclear facilities.
...
This week a Pentagon official claimed an Israeli attack on Iran was coming before year end. Other Pentagon and CIA sources say a U.S. attack on Iran is imminent, with or without Israel. The Bush administration is even considering using small tactical nuclear weapons against deeply buried Iranian targets.

Senior American officers Admiral William Fallon and Air Force Chief Michael Mosley recently were fired for opposing war against Iran. According to Israel's media, President Bush even told Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that he could not trust America's intelligence community and preferred to rely on Israeli intelligence.

http://edmontonsun.com/Comment/2008/07/06/pf-6078716.html

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Welcome to the reality based community?

I just hope my worst case for this does not even get close to being fulfilled

Or you can bet on no elections and martial law... and that is the tip of the bad times

[Jackpine Radical]

3. That's exactly where my mind goes.

These are going to be very interesting times. As I see it right now, there is only one thing that could derail the Shrubco & the Leocons. And that is if there are some eminences grises who do not want this to happen. I suspect you have some inkling of the kind of forces I'm talking about. Think Rothschild, zum Beispiel.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I know what forces you are talking about

And by the way, for your readying pleasure here is my worst case

Let me worst case this ok

IN the first 12 hours we loose three carriers... (worst case is five but some will be out of range for the sunburst)

We also loose one third of a carrier group...

That is over 100,000 casualties... between dead, injured and missing

The Iranians launch operation into Iraq... think things are bad? just wait

They get lucky and get the Israeli reactor... the atomic material will do more damage than the last 60 years... no the Edmonton is not shitting us.. of course that will also get Jordan and if the wings are just right also some of Syria... fun times all around... and also Iraq and perhaps even Iran... with decreasing concentrations.

The Israelis unleash a very particular plan, and we have the six hour war (Nice armageddon 2089 reference, game, they played with this back in 2000) Yes nukes all around

Now lets turn to the US

Our medial will turn this into WE are under attack

The way nations behave people will circle round flag and dimson

A national draft will come within hours

As well as suspension of elections as other countries go to nuclear alert

The world cannot deal with a nuclear power overtly, that is fine... immediate sanctions are declared on the US and borders closed

WIthin months the shortages of both fuel and food will collapse the economy

And after that... anybody's guess, but a civil way may be the only way to get anything back like civilian government

Sounds like the plot to a bad novel... alas real life is stranger than fiction.

Oh and things could get much worst than this... as the neocons fight to keep power and even unleash our super-weapons on US Territory... yes I consider them capable

Yep, go ahead, call me miss sunshine!!!!!!!

[progressive_realist]

14. There are never more than two carrier fleets within range

Worst-case scenario is that the onset of war catches us with one carrier in the Persian Gulf and another in the Arabian Sea. Any others in the region would be elsewhere in the Indian Ocean or in the Mediterranean, out of range of Iranian anti-ship weapons. Practically speaking, three carriers are enough to provide seamless, round-the-clock air operations, so there is no reason for the U.S. to ever put more than that into a single theater. And the Red Sea, Mediterranean, and most of the Indian Ocean are close enough to Iran for air operations.

More likely is that Iran would only get an opportunity to attack a single carrier fleet at the onset of war. The only places where one of our carriers would be vulnerable are the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The bigger problem is that we would have to bring additional naval assets into place quickly in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, thus exposing them to further attack. But of course we would bomb the heck out of the Iranian coast and be on full alert by that point, so the probability of Iran successfully sinking a second carrier would be virtually nil.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Operation Iraqi Freedom had two carrier groups in the Gulf

One in the Arabian sea

One in the med

Its crews overflew allied nations.

And the fifth one in reserve

Same scenario during the First Gulf War

Live in a navy town... when all carriers are missing people get nervous

When my hubby deployed for IF... Honolulu was left with a frigate in dry dock and the big Mo, which is technically part of the ready reserve still

You are correct in peacetime though

[Selatius]

17. If Israel or the US opens hostilities, the US Navy would already be bracing for any counter-attack.

Likely, the US fleet would be positioned in the Arabian Sea. Sunburn missiles have a range of roughly 100km when fired either from aircraft or ground-based missile launchers or even ship-based missile launchers. Aircraft would pose the most dangerous threat, given that even older Soviet-era aircraft can fly several hundred miles out into open ocean before refueling.

The aircraft carrier battle group that is on station would be wise to have warplanes in the air orbiting around the group to play defense against inbound warplanes, but they would have to catch the aircraft before they get within 100km of the carrier, or those Sunburns will fly.

Incidentally, NATO designated these missiles "Sunburn" because the Soviet Union made them capable of carrying a nuclear warhead instead of conventional explosives, a 200 kiloton nuclear warhead. They were meant as fleet destroyers, essentially. Even if Iran had atomic weapons, their weapons designs are probably too primitive and bulky to fit them onto a relatively small Sunburn.

The US has nothing to compare with the Sunburn in terms of its speed. It's one area the Soviet Union simply dominated the US. A US Harpoon (sub-sonic) anti-ship missile is slow as hell compared to a Sunburn (just over Mach 2 at terminal velocity, about as fast as any modern warplane on full afterburner).

A defense of the US fleet would require that the US detect and destroy an inbound enemy warplane before it gets in range to fire a Sunburn. If the Iranians wanted to sink the US fleet, they'd send out all their aircraft into the Arabian Sea carrying Sunburns to form a phalanx of inbound Sunburns. Nothing on earth could block that if it got off the ground, which is why it is important that the Iranian Air Force is destroyed on the ground in the opening phase of any assault on Iran.

[Jackpine Radical]

23. Any possibility the Iranians have acquired a few 200kT nukes

from the Russians or someone? The warheads wouldn't have to be of their own manufacture.

[L0oniX]

29. France sold anti-ship exocet missiles to Iran

[Jackpine Radical]

33. Are they nuclear?

(Rhetorical question.)

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. again no

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. That is what is driving intel nuts. NO

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Too crowded, they will have to have at least carrier group in the gulf

It gets so bad that you could literally walk wing tip to wing tip

And the R2D2 units will take out the first wave, but after that they will not have hours to reload

[indepat]

40. Would bombing Iran give junior another trifecta: no elections and martial law plus god (and the

Bushies) only know what else? But there I go being cynical again. :D

[Jackpine Radical]

43. Wow, the perfect disaster. Everything together all at once.

Peak oil, environmental collapse, the world economy in ruins, nuclear war...more like a dodecafecta than a mere trifecta.

[indepat]

44. Even if nuclear war were somehow left out of the mix, that would still leave nine

budding disasters created by this rogue regime which was a criminal enterprise (use of this term assumes those early Cheney energy meeting were largely about divvying up Iraq's oil reserves and I might be wrong on this one though not likely) from the git-go. :D

[AndyTiedye]

2. K/R

:scared:

[stillcool]

4. Tell Iran to tell Irag to..

give the damn oil companies what they want! Put out, or :nuke:

[whistle]

6. Congress must cut off the money now

[Double T]

7. The desperadoes in the WH aren't finished with their destruction.........

of the US and the rest of the world; their legacy needs further enhancement for the sole possession of the 'most evil and worst' the world has ever seen.

[azul]

8. What they got on Pelosi et al?

Short of impeachment, congress needs to rescind the authorization to use military force to prevent this full-blown insanity. Like now.

The AUMF was misused and these criminal clowns cannot be trusted to use it ever again. Just start the discussion and then get everyone's vote on record to see who still supports a possible escalation of this fiasco of deceptions and death and bankruptcy.

And then let them have it in the general election.

[ben_meyers]

9. recently joined by France?

Well that seals it, when the cheese eating surrender monkeys are going along it's time to grab your ankles and kiss your ass good by!

[peacetalksforall]

10. French leaders - friends of Cheney and Israel leaders. Tragic. Disgusting.

There are no peacemakers in France.

We know that the UK is in on it.

And Cheney expects Russia and China to watch it on tv?

And they are going to draft and send our kids in there without training and equipment. They will be sent to defend Israel.

[Ghost Dog]

18. It is said that one of M. Sarkozy's aims

(requiring mostly Brit agreement) is to replace the current US commanders of NATO in Europe with European commanders.

[L0oniX]

28. Nice. France sold anti-ship exocet missiles to Iran.

[daleo]

11. Margolis is pretty level headed

Oddly, he works for a rightwing newspaper chain, but he is one of the lone voices of sanity in the outfit.

[Douglas Carpenter]

12. NBC News: Oil to $300-$400 a Barrel if Iran Attacked

By Jeff Poor
Business & Media Institute
7/2/2008 11:57:19 AM

http://www.businessandmedia.org/printer/2008/20080702114938.aspx

The consequences of a military attack on Iran to thwart its nuclear intentions could have a devastating economic impact.

NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel warned on the July 1 “NBC Nightly News” an attack by Israel could send oil prices soaring – sending gas prices into territories never imagined.

“I asked an oil analyst that very question,” Engel said. “He said, ‘The price of a barrel of oil: Name your price – $300-$400 a barrel.’”
What would oil at those levels mean? A June 11 Time magazine story by Robert Baer put the price of a gallon of gas at $12 if oil goes to $300 a barrel. In May, Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” the oil at those prices could mean $15-a-gallon gas.

--------------------------

I think of war with Iran as the ending of America's present role in the world. Iraq may have been a preview of that, but it's still redeemable if we get out fast. In a war with Iran, we'll get dragged down for 20 or 30 years. The world will condemn us. We will lose our position in the world. "

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Vanity Fair, 2006.

[uppityperson]

13. 1 of the reasons I keep checking in on DU is to find out if it's happened yet.

It hasn't, so I get sucked into spending more time on line. But seriously, I figure this will be the place to know. And yes, it is very scary. Way beyond very scary. Infuriating also.

[snappyturtle]

16. You want to scream and I want to cry. "V" for Vendetta is on....again...

This article is frightening. What can we do?

[nashville_brook]

19. from the article -- Iran will mine the Gulf causing a financial panic/$400-500 barrel oil

Israel asserts the right to maintain its Mideast nuclear monopoly by destroying all fissile-producing reactors in the region. Iran vows to retaliate against Israel with its inaccurate Shahab missiles, shut the Strait of Hormuz and mine the Gulf, producing worldwide financial panic, severe fuel shortages, and $400-$500 per barrel oil. Iran likely will attack U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and Kuwait, and strike Saudi and Kuwaiti oil facilities. Canadians in Afghanistan could also become targets.

[leftchick]

20. The Nuclear Bunker Buster will not work!

This animation depicts a proposed weapon with a one megaton yield. The funding for this weapon was cut in 2005 defense appropriations. However, the United States still has a B61-11 nuclear 'bunker buster' in its arsenal which has a 400 kiloton yield, which could still cause hundreds of thousands of deaths and spread radiation to other countries. Learn more.

Watch....

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/nuclear-bunker-buster-rnep-animation.html

[shadowknows69]

21. That's the real plan

Make no mistake, war with Iran is simply part of a bigger depopulation agenda. The neocons need to kill the middle east down to a manageable level.

[Pavulon]

45. Incorrect

Nuclear weapons combined with precise targeting would turn norad into a lake. Just like they would destroy any bunker. Shock and overpressure are not taken into account here. Once you start popping nukes one seems like an odd number.

However using them would create a big radioactive mess.

[bdamomma]

22. is Israel that stupid to put its citizens at risk.

Olmert needs to be terminated.

[Jackpine Radical]

24. I asked that same question about Israel a few days ago, while

I was trying to reinforce my denial. The answers I got from people around here were downright scary. Their Leocons are pretty well cross-pollenated with our Leocons.

And I hope "terminated" means removed from office. It is not wise to advocate for....

Oh--and I guess it's not obvious to everyone that I'm using the term "Leocon" as an oblique reference to Leo Strauss. Google that name if you don't know it.

[Echo In Light]

25. Do not underestimate the bizarre theocratic agenda

Leo Strauss' Philosophy of Deception
By Jim Lobe, AlterNet. Posted May 19, 2003.

Many neoconservatives like Paul Wolfowitz are disciples of a philosopher who believed that the elite should use deception, religious fervor and perpetual war to control the ignorant masses.

http://www.alternet.org/story/15935/

Kill Or Convert, Brought To You By the Pentagon
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15&pid=220960

Religious Extremists in America {scary fuckin video}
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_UoHfCUBiEM

Lobbying for Armageddon
By Sarah Posner, AlterNet. Posted August 3, 2006.
http://www.alternet.org/story/39748/

The Jesus Landing Pad
Bush White House checked with rapture Christians before latest Israel move
http://www.villagevoice.com/news/0420,perlstein,53582,1.html

Some influential evangelical leaders are lobbying for an attack on Iran. But it's not about geopolitics -- it's about bringing about the End Times.
http://www.alternet.org/story/39748/

There's been a great deal written on this dire topic, yet it seems to be ignored and/or disavowed ... usually by the same ones who discount any topic which appears too "conspiratorial."

[bdamomma]

26. terminate out of office, he has a scandal going on.

[peacetalksforall]

34. Sacred places in Jerusalem = Chernobyl

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. Two things happening here

WE are setting the music, they are a client state

We usually fight proxy wars using them

And in some sectors of intelligence they do see the Iranians as that much of a threat, and it does not help what the Iranian president says regularly.

Given they were mostly right about Iraq in 1981, when everybody else told them the Iraqis didn't even have a reactor going

[L0oniX]

27. This is what happens when you don't impeach war criminals.

[lonestarnot]

30. And you had doubts prior?

[OneBlueSky]

31. correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't going to war the SOLE prerogative of the Congress? . . .

hello? . . . Congress, you there? . . . WAKE THE FUCK UP! . . . AND DO YOUR GOD DAMNED DUTY! . . . Bush can NOT go to war unless you specifically authorize him to do so . . . just because he's done it in the past doesn't mean that you've in any way abdicated your Constitutional responsibilities . . .

YOU, Congress -- as OUR representatives -- are the ONLY ones who can take this country to war! . . . and if someone else (i.e. George W. Bush) tries, you damned well better stop him! . . . before someone gets hurt . . .
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Article 1, Section 8:

Section 8. The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes;

To establish a uniform rule of naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies throughout the United States;

To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;

To provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States;

To establish post offices and post roads;

To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;

To constitute tribunals inferior to the Supreme Court;

To define and punish piracies and felonies committed on the high seas, and offenses against the law of nations;

To declare war, grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water;

To raise and support armies, but no appropriation of money to that use shall be for a longer term than two years;

To provide and maintain a navy;

To make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces;

To provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions;

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

To exercise exclusive legislation in all cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten miles square) as may, by cession of particular states, and the acceptance of Congress, become the seat of the government of the United States, and to exercise like authority over all places purchased by the consent of the legislature of the state in which the same shall be, for the erection of forts, magazines, arsenals, dockyards, and other needful buildings;--And

To make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof.

[Jackpine Radical]

32. Korea. Dominican Republic. Vietnam. Panama. Grenada.

What do they all have in common? (This is not an exhaustive list.)

[H2O Man]

41. Right.

Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.'s classic "The Imperial Presidency" (1974) documented how almost every president sought to expand executive powers through the war powers associated with the office. In fact, almost every other power is related to that, in one way or the other.

Congress has, almost without exception, refused to meet the standards defined by the Constitution. This allows the expansion of executive powers; in the Bush-Cheney administration, the expansion has been unchecked.

The military occupation of Iraq was viewed as the first step necessary for changing the government of Iran. That's been the plan since Bush the Elder's day. He refused to invade Iraq, of course, and one can follow the Wolfowitz-Libby-Cheney agenda from 1992 on to see what path they intend to take this country on.

[blues90]

39. I look at this one way

They have been ramping this up for three years and I have no doubt that this is the only card and option left for the bush admin . They are not about to go away quietly and just give up all the power they have built up or chance war crimes as if that will even happen , but it is possible.

They already have been marking targets , bush already has the go ahead just to pick up the phone and say go.

This is their last chance to control all the oil and they will risk everything to keep this power.

They have proven over and over life means nothing to them , how much proof do people need.

The house has given then everything and the artical from Sy Hearsh did not sound very promising.

There is a lot more that makes it all seem more likely than not that the attack on Iran will happne as people are so imbedded in these elections and distracted while the economy sinks and the houses go away and the jobs are shinking out of sight. so what do they do , talk about food shortage which is yet anyother who knows opportunity.

[spanone]

42. kicked