what are the chances this gay marriage ban in CA will pass this November?

[IndianaJones]

what is the attitude of the voters there on this issue?

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. The majority are for it, according to polls

and this election will have a high turnout

They are placing this and the ever so popular kids abortion notification to drive the God, Guns and Gays crowd to the polls

It is politics 101 unfortunately

There are also a couple other trends that scare the right (and the Democratic party as well) down right crazy

1.- The number of people who have abandoned BOTH parties and gone indie is going up by leaps and bounds... some observers have realized that we are more than ready for a third party in this state.

2.- The number of people who have become more active... this means more primary challenges

[magellan]

4. We really should be past this by now

If we aren't the most backwards, morally repressive western "democracy" I'd like to know which country is.

[Indenturedebtor]

5. We are.

This is clearly Rovian BS yet again. But CA will swing to Obama anyways. Hopefully no one's civil liberties get trampled on in the process. Blah I hate this crap.

[magellan]

10. I hope you're right

Between the RW lies about what's got support and the RW lies people base their votes on, I find it all quite frustrating.

Belief systems that promote hate are one thing. But I wish to hell we had an independent panel to monitor campaigns and at least keep them honest on a factual basis.

[Indenturedebtor]

21. That's a good idea but the pukes would probably corrupt that too n/t

[TheWraith]

6. The election will have high turnout for us, though, which could counterbalance the vote. We'll see.

Also, I haven't heard anything to the effect that people are leaving the Dems in CA. Got any links?

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. I heard the story on my local PBS station

they were quoting the SOS site, about a year ago.

So I don't have the actual links

But... what the NPR commentator said is... Cali usually leads, so they expect to see that trend go eastward

[damonm]

20. What polls are you seeing?

SJ Mercury & Oakland Tribune both show such a measure failing 52-48.

[darthmix]

2. really hard to say at this point

There was a poll last week that showed that 51% opposed the measure and 43% approved. That poll was hailed as a landmark, as the numbers usually aren't so good for us on this issue. But since it's the only poll that's shown that, I don't know if we can trust it.

It's going to be a huge, huge fight.

[Luminous Animal]

3. The latest field poll..

shows a slim majority of gay marriage support.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2740828920080528

I think it helps to have Arnie opposed to the measure. (I hated writing that sentence!)

[Gormy Cuss]

17. But the LA Times poll released at about the same time had 54% opposed.

This one will be about who shows up at the polls. Fortunately it'll be on the ballot in a presidential election year when many will come out to vote, but if conservatives are better at mustering the vote it will pass.

[nichomachus]

7. A lot will depend

On how well-funded the TV ads are. It's the drumbeat of TV ads that drive the voters to propositions in CA, where you can have numerous very confusing propositions on every ballot. Even very politically astute people I know spend the week before the election asking friends how to vote.

For the un-astute, their minds will be made up by television, where they will see thousands of ads. These will be supplemented by robocalls at all hours of the day or night. I don't know how much money the bigots have to spend, but if they have a lot of money they could get people to vote for it.

It's a crappy process.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. When I have no time to study them I vote no

Otherwise I spend upwards of a month going through them

By the way 98, fine print, end of rent controls

So NO on it

[Oeditpus Rex]

11. I doubt there'll be a real campaign

other than get-out-the-vote. I don't recall any ads when this was on the ballot in 2000.

The haters can't afford to reveal themselves as haters, and I can't imagine a campaign context that wouldn't do just that, unless all they do is throw bible verses on the screen. But even that, I think, would turn off more people than it'd turn on.

They don't need to try to convince anyone, since almost no one is neutral on this issue. Their real task is to make sure enough hate is cast at the polls.

[nichomachus]

12. Well, they were using robocalls to get the petition signed

So, they may decide to go that way -- probably using church lists to get out the haters.

[cally]

13. It will be a difficult battle

but I'm hopeful we can defeat it. I think liberals will turn out in big numbers in the fall.

[MindPilot]

14. It doesn't matter if it does pass.

The court has already ruled a ban as unconstitutional. Even if an initiative to enact a ban is voted in, it will STILL be unconstitutional.

I seriously doubt if it will pass though. There are a few very loud voices of hate, but for the most part where the rubber meets the road, Californians generally hold a live and let live attitude.

That's my 0.02.

[hulklogan]

15. This ban will change the constitution, though.

So it will be the supreme law of the land and will invalidate the Supreme Court decision that says marriage is a constitutional right.

In other words, marriage will no longer be a constitutional right in California if this amendment passes.

[MindPilot]

19. Then they will have to ban any state recognition of ANY marriage.

Any thing else is gender discrimination.

[gratuitous]

16. My understanding is that it's a constitutional amendment

So if the measure passes, it becomes part of the California state constitution and is therefore constitutional. This will be a colossal battle, with lots of sound and fury, and the anti-gay contingent could very well squeak out a victory. If so, it will stand out as a very lonely ray of good news for the reactionaries in November, and will be all the more noticeable for that.

Of course, there is never a final word on how we order our society. A ballot measure to amend the constitution can be passed one year, and then repealed somewhere down the line. I'm hoping that happens some time soon in Oregon.

[MindPilot]

18. Here's an interesting analysis I lifted from the comments in my local paper

The article states that if the constitutional amendment passes in November, it will overturn the Supreme Court's decision in the marriage cases. After reading the opinion I'm not sure that's true. What follows is my (hopefully objective) understanding of what the court said.

The court gave two or three reasons why it believed gays have a right to wed, based on its belief that gays shouldn't be deprived of a fundamental right without due process and that the ban on gay marriage violated the equal protection clause of the state constitution. It then said that it had to make one of two choices: Option 1 extend marriage to gays; or Option 2 make any marriages - gay or straight - illegal. The court then chose Option No.1.

There is nothing in the proposed constitutional amendment would repeal any of the provisions of the constitution on which the court based its decision. So the legal reasoning of the opinion will still stand and the only change will be that Option No. 1 will be illegal in California. But No. Option 2 would still be available as a remedy to gays challenging the ban on gay marriage. The result could be that the court declares all marriages, gay and straight, illegal, and forces everyone to accept domestic partnership status.

In short, I think there's a big risk of chaos if the proposed constitutional amendment passes in November. I'd appreciate thoughts on my interpretation from anyone else who has read the court's opinion, whether they are for gay marriage or against it.

http://comment.signonsandiego.com/view/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.signonsandiego.com%2Fnews%2Fstate%2F20080523-1356-ca-gaymarriage-poll.html&page=3

And there is still the fundamental issue that the constitution is an instrument to define and regulate government power, not individual behavior. Plus any gay marriage ban is based on religious beliefs, not secular law so it is, on its face, unconstitutional.