http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JE08Ae01.htmlMyanmar courts political disaster
With political, economic and social tensions already running high, the devastating impact of Cyclone Nargis and the military government's callous and inadequate response could represent a perfect storm for change among Myanmar's repressed and impoverished population.
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Prime Minister Major General Thein Sein has been declared the head of a disaster management committee to oversee relief efforts. He has been shown prominently in state-run media holding official meetings to discuss the damage, meeting people in a Buddhist temple and viewing the damage in Yangon's North Dagon Myothit township.
His committee includes the armed forces, police and fire brigade, but apparently not the Union Solidarity and Development Association, a junta-created mass organization. Images of soldiers and police clearing trees from roads and handing out supplies have been repeatedly televised.
However, Senior General Than Shwe, the ruling junta's leader, and the rest of the leadership have by and large remained out of public view and apparently holed up in the new capital Naypyidaw, which is reportedly unaffected by the cyclone.
Residents in Yangon say that much of the government's relief work has been done around major infrastructure and that very little assistance has so far been dispersed to rural areas, where the damage and casualties are the most severe. Much of the work in clearing away debris and fallen trees has reportedly been done by residents and monks, not government officials.
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While the junta largely stays away from the disaster, the beleaguered population has by and large been left to its own devices to help the injured, bury the dead, clean up debris and find food and water. Water in particular is in very short supply and what was already an erratic electricity grid has been completely shut down. The World Health Organization has expressed fears of outbreaks fueled by mosquitoes, dirty water and poor sanitation.
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Initial FAO figures indicate the areas hit by the cyclone comprise 50% of all irrigated farmland, which produce about 65% of Myanmar's rice. The storm also is expected to have wiped out much of the area's livestock and damaged fish and shrimp farms.
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Myanmar's military rulers are clearly courting a political disaster through their response to the cyclone calamity. The possibility for anti-government protests were already running high if the government announced a "yes" vote for the constitutional referendum, a result many believe the junta will attempt to rig in its favor.
And there is still simmering resentment over the military's violent crackdown, including mass arrests of Buddhist monks and the shooting deaths of other demonstrators, last September. Now the generals have added to this volatile mix a callous and incompetent response to the massive death and hardship brought on by Cyclone Nargis.
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it ain't over, its just begun
that rice crop will be sorely missed
which country will be next to be made poor and desperate by the weather?