The Fed has
slashed its target rate 2.25 percentage points since September,
and has engaged in all manner of novel auction schemes to bolster liquidity,
particularly among those holding the bag on soured mortgages.
Yet despite momentary blips upward, the stock market and the overall economy
continue to slide. Even as the Fed's actions pushed many short-term interest rates
below the inflation rate, fixed mortgage rates have begun rising.
As inflation expectations gather steam, the Fed will find itself painted
into an ever-shrinking corner.
Regardless of past mistakes, the Fed must now make the best of a bad situation.
It must stop chasing the financial markets, and even the broader economy.
Creating more dollar bills will not add to the nation's wealth,
or make workers more productive.
The alleged trade-off between inflation and unemployment--the Phillips Curve
--is no guide for action. Yes, an unexpected injection of new money can
temporarily boost real output.
But once people come to expect the higher rates of price inflation, t
he Phillips Curve simply shifts; it takes greater and greater injections
to achieve the same stimulus. That is how a country becomes trapped in a stagflation spiral.
The painful and costly recessions of the early 1980s were the result of the inflationary policies of the Fed during the 1970s. In contrast, Fed policies during the 1980s and 1990s focused on curbing inflation and maintaining price stability; this shift in focus produced both low inflation and strong, steady real growth. It would be a terrible mistake to throw out that costly victory in an effort to avoid a recession today--one that's already baked in the cake.
The Fed should commit to long-term price stability, and it needs to back up that commitment with action. Recessions will always be with us, but they will be shallow and short when the Fed keeps inflation low and evenly paced. If the Fed continues cutting rates, we will simply get the worst of both worlds: prolonged recession and excessive inflation.
http://www.forbes.com/home/opinions/2008/03/16/fed-inflation-rates-oped-cx_rmlh_0317fedinflation.html