Predict the Fed (FOMC rates announcement 3/18, 11:15 a.m. Pacific Time)

[swag]

I think they'll cut by a full percentage point to 2%.

They'll issue some statement trying to calmly acknowledge the current credit crisis and its threat to "growth," while pledging to keep ever-vigilant about inflation.

This should be the most fun "predict the fed" thread yet.

[Warpy]

1. I have a feeling you might be correct

Analysts are predicting another sizeable drop in the Dow tomorrow, one which will trigger institutional buying to create a sucker rally midweek.

It depends on which day the Fed announces. If it's Monday or early Tuesday, expect a full point. If it's later, expect less.

[Captain Angry]

2. I think they'll hold rates flat.

They've cut too far, and if banks won't lend to each other due to collateral quality issues, why would they do it if the rates fall again.

With their concerns for inflation, I think they'll pause to see if the $200B loan and previous cuts do anything.

[Ikonoklast]

3. No Change

Inflation fears will overrule any more rate cuts, along with trying to shore up the dollar.

Won't work, though. Too little, too late.

[Oceansaway]

4. 1/2 %....n/t

[tekisui]

5. 1-2% !

I hope not, that will send the message that we are in deep, deep shit. Even though we are, they will play it cooler than that.

Regardless of the new likely rate cut, and possible more money printing, the "Fed Fixes" only bump the market for about a day.

Next week is a short week, no trading on Good Friday.

[peacetalksforall]

6. Cheney must think all is OK - he's travelling,. George? Dick's role - get

Saudi Arabia's permission for Iran?
have alittle war to bring the dollar up? And destroy our country in a way unimaginable? What's going on?

[swag]

7. We need more players.

[Blackhatjack]

8. 3/4 pt cut.... with lots of calming words.

[ThomWV]

14. This makes 2 bets on .0075

[bicentennial_baby]

9. I agree with you

[swag]

10. Thank you for playing.

I agree with you, too.

[Ichingcarpenter]

11. Another quarter today then tomorrow another quarter

and a full 1.25% by the end of the week done in increments
as compared to what it was last Friday.

[taught_me_patience]

12. 1%

They are more interested in protecting their banking friends than preventing inflation for the "masses"

[swag]

13. Somebody else have a go.

[better tomorrow]

15. 1 percent at 2 o'clock today

that's what the news just said....

[JackRiddler]

16. My guess: It will be useless in preventing a crash by the end of next week.

Whatever it is, they've only got 2 points to go. Are they going to pay the banks (and the brokerages, as the fed is now violating the rule against lending to brokerages) to borrow and shovel it down the hole? They went to the bailout well again last week, they needed another bailout to start this week anyway. What's left? Any more governors whose political demise would at least boost traders' morale?

[swag]

17. Get your last licks in.

This morning, I've read a lot of economists predicting 75 bps, but I'll stick with 100.

[swag]

18. The .75s have it - congrats ThomWV at Blackhatjack.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Stopping short of giving the market everything it wanted, the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by three quarters of one percentage point on Tuesday. The Fed action takes the federal funds rate target down to 2.25%, the lowest since December 2004 But the market had expected more. Based on futures trading in Chicago, investor's bets implied a 100% chance of a cut of one percentage point. The Fed did leave the door open. In its statement, the Fed said downside risks remain and it would act in a timely manner if needed. Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser dissented in favor of less aggressive action.