"The Panic of 2008 will be much worse than the Great Deparession"

[gateley]

according to Gerald Celente (I'm listening to him on Coast to Coast AM now).

His reasons: We had a trade surplus then, most people didn't have adjustable rate mortgages, we didn't have one trillion dollars in credit card debt.

He said we need to readjust our way of living -- back to frugality. He says his group has been saying for years that the McMansions will end up becoming rooming houses.

Although he doesn't give financial advice, he advised a family member today to just get what he could out of his house and to get out of debt. Forget about a big profit -- just try to break even with some extra.

He forecasts that rent will be cheap in a little while due to all the over-building.

Just passing this along -- so if you disagree, it's HIM you're disagreeing with, not me.

Here's his site, (it's basically a pitch to subscribe to his newsletter, but tells you a little bit about him)

http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.htm

[ruiner4u]

1. No offense...

But I remember when Coast to Coast was predicting we would go back to stone huts and horses cause of Y2k computer bug...

[gateley]

2. I remember that, too, but I didn't buy into the panic (my entire Y2K preparedness

consisted of buying extra toilet paper and a bottle of champagne).

I've also learned some valid and important things from the show, too, so I don't discount everything I hear on it.

[lvx35]

14. This idea has some smart backers:

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/people,601,soros-predicts-worst-recession-for-50-years,13683

[angstlessk]

25. well, I did download a program in december 1999 with a 30 day try out

and it expired on like 2039 or something???? so y2k was not completely glitch free!

[ribrepin]

3. Hi Gately

:hi:

I always enjoy your posts...I'm watching the markets melt down in Asia and Australia now. My husband and I just had a conversation about pulling out the 401K and paying off the house, but decided against it. The penalties wouldn't leave us with enough.

[gateley]

5. Hi yourself, ribrepin!

I'm nervous to get out of bed tomorrow (afternoon!) and look at the headlines. :scared:

I've posted this before, but I keep thinking of the "cartoon" in a high-school history book about post-war Germany. A guy has to fill a wheelbarrow full of money to pay for a loaf of bread because the currency is worth virtually nothing. Somebody steals the wheelbarrow and leaves the cash.

It sounds so unbelievable, but I'm sure the citizens of Germany would have had trouble believing that, too.

I place ALL of this on Bush's doorstep. We think the world was mad at us before -- just wait.

Take care -- hang in there! :hi:

[ribrepin]

7. I just ran into 48percenter with a really kick ass Biden picture on another economic thread

Seems the Biden people all have similar worries. I wish Joe could have gotten some traction. I'm watching the markets tank in Asia and Australia and we've the katrina cowboy in charge of fixing it.:scared:

[gateley]

8. The Katrina Cowboy is RESPONSIBLE for the markets tanking,

in my opinion. I'm not savvy about global economies, but it all seemed to begin after 9/11 and every step he's taken since then has only been to our detriment.

Yeah -- 48percenter's photo is GREAT!

[Pierogi_Pincher]

11. Hi Gately, ribrepin & all---

:hi:
I said the same to my hub last nite. We shoulda pulled out of the 401k when it was loaded back in July. I wonder if the penalty and tax would have equaled the drop in balance. It's making me sick.
P_P

[gateley]

19. Hiya P-P!

It's just so confusing WHAT to do now. I'm not sure we've every faced this situation before. As the guy on the radio said, in 1929 most people didn't own stock, the majority of people didn't own homes, no such thing as credit card debt. I don't think the rest of the world owned our mortgage, either (as Biden put it).

All we can really do is hold on and, again as he said, become more frugal in our ways. I hope we're (I'm) overreacting, but as I look around me, go to the store and see the prices, fill up my car, we're already hurting...

On that note, take care! :hi:

[Greyhound]

26. What will that 401(k) be worth if the market really tanks?

I'm just saying that a home is a real asset and has intrinsic value, stocks are volatile. I (and a few million others) learned this lesson the hard way in 2001.

[Digit]

4. I wondered if anyone else was listening....

This show is depressing.

[gateley]

6. It is -- what did you think of the guest?

Unfortunately, I thought he made a LOT of sense. Damn.

[Digit]

9. Well, I am not that knowledgeable about economic matters, but

I agree many things he said rang true.

I wonder if this will be the excuse for * to suspend the election....

[JDPriestly]

10. Megamansions to rooming houses.

That would be good if we could be sure all the homeless had places to live.

I have been wondering what will happen to the highrise office buildings. I have worked in some of them, and I can't imagine them every being used as comfortable housing. And they must be very expensive to heat and cool.

[SoCalDem]

12. Our real problem is that we don't actually MAKE much of anything these days

and our jobs are basically waiting on and tending to each other...
We just pay each other to show us and sell us plastic stuff & frankenfood,, and to listen to us complain about stuff..

We get a check, we deposit it/cash it, then we buy stuff that's probably very much like the other stuff we already have..and when the money's gone, we wait until we get the next check so we can go buy some more stuff :eyes:

[Horse with no Name]

13. I have been planning a cross country move for the last 3 years

However, the housing market there has been unattainable and unaffordable.
The houses that rented for close to $2k a month this time last year have now dropped to $1k a month.
I am watching for them to fall around normal of $800 before I actually make my move.
I'm counting on the rents to keep falling.

[dmallind]

15. I repeat my as yet untaken offer to people who believe this

I am willing and able to enter into binding contracts to buy major index stock funds one year from today at 75% of current value or 3 years from now at 25% of current value. If this period is anything like 1929 you will make a great profit by buying at those times and selling to me at those prices.


This is not rhetorical or hypothetical although I am no Bill Gates so it's limited to about $100K that I could free up. PM me or post and I'll contact you. Can place money in escrow so no chance of default on my part.

It's very telling that so far none of the confident doom and gloomers have taken me up on this.

I want to make it clear I am not betting against mild recession or stock market declines. There is a whole world of possibilities between "everything is wonderful" and "the sky is falling". I reside in that interval.

[gateley]

18. Although I can't participate in your offer, I hope your confidence is well placed.

[hunter]

21. I question whether that figure would represent "my profit"

Because our Federal Government seems to be quite unreasonably attuned to the dollar value of the stock market, I'm betting they will take us down a path of further inflation.

If the value of the stock market in terms of goods, services, and property is reduced by half, our Federal Government will happily pump up those numbers up by reducing the value of the dollar.

Thus the "profits" you offer might not mean anything. If you were willing to take your index stock funds and bet them against the price of oil it would be interesting. The behavior of the oil exporting nations and the oil companies is entirely consistent with peak oil. Promises of increased oil production are empty at this point -- such promises are only meant to keep the game going while there are still pieces of real value to be won.

When all those pieces are gone the market will not collapse in dollar value, but those dollars will be little more than hot air.

[radfringe]

16. typo? "Great Deparession"...did you mean

Great Depression?
----or----
Great Desperation?

[gateley]

17. Either one will do. nt

[pitohui]

20. financial newsletters are sold on fear EOM

,

[The Backlash Cometh]

22. Well, he needs to change the title, since, "panic" suggests it's all in our

minds; and if we keep cool heads, we'll prevail. Though that is true to a point, we also need someone with a real plan. Expect the government to be the next big employer. By trying to destroy government, the Grovians insured that it would not just survive, but grow larger than life.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

23. Great post! K & R! I think the lower tier of the "tax cut" beneficiaries are about to get a harsh

lesson.

Too bad, they're not bad people all and all. MKJ

[mdmc]

24. kick