Iran meltdown
The US intelligence community reasserted its independence by releasing a critical report that destroys George Bush's case for warSpencer Ackerman
December 4, 2007 7:30 PM | Printable version
More than any particular line of intelligence, a recent statement from Michael McConnell might explain why the US intelligence community he heads unexpectedly released a report that devastated the Bush administration's years-long presentation of an Iranian nuclear threat.
McConnell, appointed in January to become President Bush's director of national intelligence, had a reputation as a dispassionate intelligence professional before joining the administration. But the former director of the Defence Intelligence Agency had come under fire from congressional Democrats for misleading statements about a summer surveillance bill, and, for the first time, was having his independence questioned. That made it all the more surprising for McConnell to pledge his resignation last month if the administration manipulated intelligence to serve its agenda. "If it were cherry-picked in an inappropriate way, then for me, that's a professional obligation to object, and I would submit my resignation," McConnell told reporters.
McConnell hasn't quit. But his release yesterday of the key judgments of a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran
was just as resounding a rebuke to Bush. It represents the kind of pushback the intelligence community now wishes it had provided ahead of the Iraq war: both a check on administration misrepresentations, and an internal correction of what it got wrong itself.
The need for both is evident. In 2005, even as a presidential commission chided the community for its lack of knowledge on Iran, a National Intelligence Estimate found Iran possessed an active nuclear programme that would yield a weapon in 10 years. The assessment was more cautious than some administration statements, but for years the International Atomic Energy Agency, on the ground in Iran, has stated that it does not see evidence of a weapons programme. Since 2005, a number of developments affected the intelligence picture, including communications intercepts from Iranian military officers lamenting the weapons programme's demise.
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Nor did the intelligence community's correction change the mind of the person it most needs to convince. "I'm saying that I believed before the NIE that Iran was dangerous, and I believe after the NIE that Iran is dangerous," Bush said at a press conference this morning. "I have said Iran is dangerous, and the NIE doesn't do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary." In other words, no matter how much of a corrective the intelligence community seeks to provide, Bush has decided that truth and falsity about Iran carry equal persuasive freight. McConnell would be better off resigning. ......(more)
The complete piece is at: http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/spencer_ackerman/2007/12/iran_meltdown.html