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Greg Wilpert is the editor of www.venezuelanalysis.com, one of the best sources of news/opinion on the Bolivarian Revolution.
I just heard him on Radio Venezuela En Vivo--live broadcast from Venezuela (in English). (Hugo Chavez is speaking right now, conceding defeat: 50.7% "No" vote, vs. 49% "Yes.")
A bit earlier (before we knew for sure--although reports were that it was close), Wilpert was interviewed, and his point was a very good one. A very slim margin win for "Yes" could have easily sparked rabid righwing disruption, constant trouble for the Chavez government, even chaos and violence, and failure of the government.
But with a slim loss, the Chavistas can go back to the drawing board, calmly and thoughtfully, achieve some of the reforms through the legislature (such as funding for the community councils, pensions for day workers, the 4.5 hour work week), and (my thought) with four years of the Chavez government still to go, even propose a new referendum--but less complicated, with more time for voters to understand it--say, a year from now.
The rightwing can crow for a while over this, but Chavez continues to enjoy huge approval ratings (72%), and has suffered only one electoral loss in 9 years of almost continual elections (for various reasons), which he won with ever increasing margins (63% in the last presidential election). He continues to be a formidable leader of Venezuela and the region, and he can finally put to rest all the crap that the Bushites and global corporate predator news monopolies have shoved at us about Chavez being a "dictator." As he said in previous remarks, "if you play baseball, you must respect whatever the umpire dictates."
Not the words of a "dictator." And we will see in the coming weeks and months--I am absolutely certain--that he fully respects the umpire (the people), democracy and the rule of law. He has never done otherwise. With this loss, he can put that slander to rest.
It's even possible that the bigger structural changes that were proposed--such as federal control of the central bank, and lifting the term limit (2 terms) on the president--might still be voted on and passed.
Wilpert says that the amendments were too complicated, the right mounted a huge campaign of disinformation about them (really scurrilous lies), and there was NOT enough time for people to understand them. He says they only had a month. (I didn't know this--I thought the process had been going on for months. It involved hundreds of town meetings all over the country.) Voters were confused. Some pro-Chavez voters abstained, or voted no. (Chavez just said that 3 million Venezuelans abstained, that was the deciding factor, and that it is "a lesson for all of us." He's already perceiving it as a learning experience, and sounds very optimistic.)
Considering everything, a 49% loss is not bad, for a proposal that was described as the next big step in a socialist revolution--especially given the forces arrayed against it, which have shocked even me in their concerted viciousness, and pervasive lies and disinformation.
Viva la revolución!
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Many thanks to Radio Venezuela En Vivo--for its live English and English-translated broadcasts direct from Venezeula tonight!
Also thanks to www.venezuelanalysis.com--for their fabulous work on these issues and events.
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