Elimination of leaded gas correlated with decrease in crime

[Fresh_Start]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/21/magazine/21wwln-idealab-t.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1193069109-tIv/I01qmqYqqX/fw3A7Iw&oref=slogin

If you poison small children's brains with lead, they are more likely to grow up to become criminals.
"...even low levels of lead can cause brain damage that makes children less intelligent and, in some cases, more impulsive and aggressive"

[TechBear_Seattle]

1. And the decrease of pirates has led to global warming

:eyes:

[John Q. Citizen]

2. Are you skeptical that lead damages brain function?

[Fresh_Start]

3. When I posted the info under the link was in square brackets

I didn't realize the DU blocked the contents of the square brackets. So he might have been reacting to the bare headline.

[krispos42]

6. It doesn't block it...

The DU software sees square brackets as HTML code, which it tries to execute.

[Fresh_Start]

7. thanks for explaining...but I think I better stay away from them

since I didn't intend them to be HTML.

[TechBear_Seattle]

8. Can you say red herring?

Heavy metals such as lead accumilate in the body, as they are not removed by normal function. Even with treatment (which is very expensive and time consuming), neural damage can not be repaired. In short, a child who was violent and agressive because of lead poisoning will become an adult who is violent and aggressive because of lead poisoning; it is not something that one can outgrow. From this, I assert that the conclusion is highly questionable.

There is evidence of correlation, yes. There is also evidence of a correlation between the decrease in the number of swashbuckling pirates and the increase in average global temperature, and evidence of correlation between the use of transistors and the price of gasoline. CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSE-AND-EFFECT. Just because two graphs are in synch does not in any way imply that one is related to the other.

[Fresh_Start]

12. other studies

- With blood levels of 10 to 44 micrograms, symptoms are unlikely, but brain damage occurs frequently, resulting in increased school drop out rates, learning difficulties and reduced academic achievement. The evidence for antisocial, including aggressive, behavior, is increasing; and that possibility is supported by an experimental model in which administration of lead increased the aggressive behavior of cats.

Early Lead Exposure is a Significant Cause of Juvenile Delinquency

Children exposed to lead have significantly greater odds of developing delinquent behavior, according to a University of Pittsburgh researcher. Results of the study directed by Herbert Needleman, MD, were presented at the May 2000 Pediatric Academic Societies and American Academy of Pediatrics Joint Meeting.

Dr. Needleman, known for his groundbreaking studies on the effects of lead exposure on children that were instrumental in nationwide government bans on lead from paint, gasoline and food and beverage cans, examined 216 youths convicted in the Juvenile Court of Allegheny County, Pa., and 201 non-delinquent controls - students from high schools in Pittsburgh. Bone lead levels, measured by K X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy of the tibia, showed that the delinquent youths had significantly higher mean concentrations of lead in their bones -- 13.7 parts per million (pm) -- compared to the control group. Those results were true for both whites and African Americans and males and females.

"This study provides further evidence that delinquent behavior can be caused, in part, by childhood exposure to lead," said Dr. Needleman.

[hughee99]

17. Maybe I don't understand "causal relationship"

but from what's in the post, it sounds like delinquents has a higher concentration of lead in their bones than non-delinquents. Granted the study isn't posted here, but where is the "causal" part of it? Where is it shown that lead CAUSES delinquent behavior? I'm willing to bet the economic and/or family situation of the delinquents was also skewed toward the negative compared to the non-delinquent controls.

[John Q. Citizen]

18. Why? Why do you assume it is skewed?

These people are researching, and they are testing. They haven't made a claim that this proves lead causes crime. However, they are researching to see if there is a relationship.

I'm always amased that people expect any one study to have to then prove that there is a causal effect. Most of the time, that takes many studies, many experiments, and many years.

That doesn't mean the study is bogus.

[hughee99]

19. Showing that X and Y are related is not the same thing

as showing X causes Y (or even is a cause of Y). I'm assuming that it's skewed until I see more information, since all I have is that two particular things are compared (lead levels and delinquency) and no other factor is mentioned.

"This study provides further evidence that delinquent behavior can be caused, in part, by childhood exposure to lead," said Dr. Needleman

From what I've seen, this study provides further evidence that delinquent behavior MAY be caused, in part, by childhood exposure to lead, not evidence that one causes the other. I'm not saying the study IS bogus, I'm just not accepting it a face value without reading more, and the information in the post was not sufficient to support the conclusion at the end.

[John Q. Citizen]

14. Did you read the article, or just the post?

Corralation often points to a good place to look. It isn't proof, it's just an indicator that there may be something there. Your first paragraph suggests to me that you didn't read the article.

Your suggested corralations in your second paragraph are stupid. My bet is you couldn't corralate them. I don't believe there is any evidence of a corralation between swash-buckling pirates and average global temperature, for one thing. Yet you claim there is, to try and discredit a science article. That you probably didn't even read.

I find no corralation between the article linked in the OP, and your post.

[NorthernSpy]

16. false rationalism

Heavy metals such as lead accumilate in the body, as they are not removed by normal function. Even with treatment (which is very expensive and time consuming), neural damage can not be repaired. In short, a child who was violent and agressive because of lead poisoning will become an adult who is violent and aggressive because of lead poisoning; it is not something that one can outgrow.

These are empirical questions.

You can't just watch a couple of Nova episodes, grasp the resulting handful of factoids about lead toxicity and the immature nervous system, and then try to reason your way to blanket pronouncements of this sort. That is false rationalism, and it is as unscientific as any of the cure-it-with-fruit-juice quackeries you probably enjoy feeling superior to.

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. Not the same thing at all.

This is not necessarily a case of two unrelated phenomena following a similar track.

The neurological effects of lead poisoning are well documented. This is an interesting, and testable, theory. It is clear that the past century has suffered an unprecedented level of crime and violence. Also, the past century has seen the use of gasoline steadily increase. The increase in crime could be attributed to the increase of population density, but that doesn't account for the decrease of crime over the past couple decades.

I, to, am curious to see how it plays out. A particular test case might be Brazil, where they've converted to 50% ethanol, which would have a profound effect on lead emissions.

[AngryAmish]

9. Actually, my friend, piracy is increasing worldwide

"Maritime pirate attacks worldwide are increasing, with Somalia and Nigeria showing the biggest rises, an international watchdog says.

While Africa remains problematic, Southeast Asia's Malacca Strait, one of the world's busiest waterways, has been relatively quiet, the International Maritime Bureau said in a report.

A total of 198 attacks on ships were reported between January and September this year, up from 174 in the same period in 2006, the IMB said.

It said a total of 15 vessels were hijacked, 63 crew kidnapped and three killed."

[TechBear_Seattle]

10. I said pirates, not incidents of piracy

And who are you to question my theological beliefs? :toast:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Spaghetti_Monster#Pirates_and_global_warming

[AngryAmish]

13. Is it your thesis that the same or fewer pirates have become more efficient?

So, before, it took 200 scruvy pirates to hoist sails, batten hatches and to shiver timbers and now a sleeker crew of 15 to 20 can get the job done?

What do we do with the downsized pirates?

[krispos42]

4. Ummm...

[dkofos]

11. I think full employment at decent wages had more to do with it.

In case you haven't noticed, there has been a steep increase in the
crime rate in the past 4 or 5 years.

[Turbineguy]

15. I read the drop

was due to legalization of abortion. Less unwanted babies grow up to be adult criminals.

http://books.google.com/books?id=LkQPOSXMUscC&dq=freakonomics&pg=PP1&ots=4nUiB5qmHU&sig=v8T_jB8or-tY6zHjgu97yR8TbXA&prev=http://www.google.com/search%3Fhl%3Den%26q%3Dfreakonomics%26btnG%3DGoogle%2BSearch&sa=X&oi=print&ct=title&cad=one-book-with-thumbnail