Iraq Body Count: “A Very Misleading Exercise"

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=14007

Introduction

The mainstream media are continuing to use figures provided by the website Iraq Body Count (IBC) to sell the public a number for total post-invasion deaths of Iraqis that is perhaps 5-10% of the true death toll.

As we recently reported, only a handful of media outlets covered a new ORB poll revealing that 1.2 million Iraqis had been murdered since the 2003 invasion. BBC Online provided a rare example:

“A UK-based polling agency, Opinion Research Business (ORB), said it had extrapolated the figure by asking a random sample of 1,461 Iraqi adults how many people living in their household had died as a result of the violence rather than from natural causes.

“The results lend weight to a 2006 survey of Iraqi households published by the Lancet, which suggested that about 655,000 Iraqi deaths were 'a consequence of the war'.

“However, these estimates are both far higher than the running total of reported civilian deaths maintained by the campaign group Iraq Body Count which puts the figure at between 71,000 and 78,000.” (BBC Online, ’US contractors in Iraq shootout,’ September 17, 2007; http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6998458.stm)

BBC’s Newsnight programme used IBC’s figures in the same way:

“More than a million Iraqis have been killed since the invasion in 2003, according to the British polling company ORB. The study’s likely to fuel controversy over the true, human cost of the war. It’s significantly up on the previous highest estimate of 650,000 deaths published by the Lancet last October... The independent Iraqi Body Count group puts the current total at closer to 75,000.” (Newsnight, BBC2, September 14, 2007)

These reports again raise serious issues about what IBC’s figures actually mean, how they are being used and misused to cast doubt on higher numbers, and about what IBC is doing to promote or reduce the confusion. (See our 2006 Media Alerts archive for previous analysis, beginning with: http://www.medialens.org/alerts/06/060125_paved_with_good.php)

[IndyOp]

1. I've been telling people this for years! Iraq Body Count isn't even close.

The methodology of IBC is poor. I admire their intent and their efforts to track deaths reported by Iraqi (and other) media outlets that appear on the internet - but how many deaths never make it into a newspaper or on radio? how many media outlets exist and report deaths, but aren't on the internet? how many media outlets have collapsed since the beginning of the invasion & occupation?

The methodology of the Johns Hopkins studies is solid - I listened to several of the authors describe their work during a Congressional hearing held by Dennis Kucinich and aired on C-SPAN. There were, of course, a tiny handful of media representatives in the chamber and no corporate media reported on the hearing.

Updated Iraq Survey Affirms Earlier Mortality Estimates

Mortality Trends Comparable to Estimates by Those Using Other Counting Methods

As many as 654,965 more Iraqis may have died since hostilities began in Iraq in March 2003 than would have been expected under pre-war conditions, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. The deaths from all causes—violent and non-violent—are over and above the estimated 143,000 deaths per year that occurred from all causes prior to the March 2003 invasion.

The estimates were derived from a nationwide household survey of 1,849 households throughout Iraq conducted between May and July 2006. The results are consistent with the findings of an October 2004 study of Iraq mortality conducted by the Hopkins researchers. Also, the 6findings closely reflect the increased mortality trends reported by other organizations that utilized passive methods of counting mortality, such as counting bodies in morgues or deaths reported by the news media. The study is published in the October 14, 2006, edition of the peer-reviewed scientific journal, The Lancet.

“As we found with our previous survey, the majority of deaths in Iraq are due to violence—although we also saw a small increase in deaths from non-violent causes, such as heart disease, cancer and chronic illness. Gunshots were the primary cause of violent deaths. To put these numbers in context, deaths are occurring in Iraq now at a rate more than three times that from before the invasion of March 2003,” said Gilbert Burnham, MD, PhD, lead author of the study and co-director of the Bloomberg School’s Center for Refugee and Disaster Response. “Our total estimate is much higher than other mortality estimates because we used a population-based, active method for collecting mortality information rather than passive methods that depend on counting bodies or tabulated media reports of violent deaths. Though the numbers differ, the trend in increasing numbers of deaths closely follows that measured by the U.S. Defense Department and the Iraq Body Count group.”

Key points of the study include:

1. Estimated 654,965 additional deaths in Iraq between March 2003 and July 2006

2. Majority of the additional deaths (91.8 percent) caused by violence

3. Males aged 15-44 years accounted for 59 percent of post-invasion violent deaths

4. About half of the households surveyed were uncertain who was responsible for the death of a household member

5. The proportion of deaths attributed to coalition forces diminished in 2006 to 26 percent. Between March 2003 and July 2006, households attributed 31 percent of deaths to the coalition

6. Mortality data from the 2006 study reaffirms 2004 estimates by Hopkins researchers and mirrors upward trends measured by other organizations

7. Researchers recommend establishment of an international body to calculate mortality and monitor health of people living in all regions affected by conflict

The mortality survey used well-established and scientifically proven methods for measuring mortality and disease in populations. These same survey methods were used to measure mortality during conflicts in the Congo, Kosovo, Sudan and other regions. For the Iraq study, data were collected from 47 randomly selected clusters of 40 households each. At each household selected, trained Iraqi surveyors collected data on the number of births and deaths that occurred in the household between January 1, 2002, and June 30, 2006. To be considered a household member, the deceased had to have lived in the home at least three months prior to death. When interviewers asked to see a death certificate at households reporting a death, it was presented in 92 percent of instances. The survey recorded 1,474 births and 629 deaths among 12,801 people surveyed. The data were then applied to the 26.1 million Iraqis living in the survey area.

[Supersedeas]

2. k&r

[Solly Mack]

3. Air Force infomercials speak of being "at war" for 16 years

they are talking about Bush I's TV war and the continuous bombings in Iraq that followed ...and how they have been at it (it being the 'war on terror')for 16 years already...that's their spin....those 'no-fly' zone bombings and Bush I's TV war are now both part of the 'war on terror'

Want a real count of the deaths in Iraq because of US actions? Then any count MUST go back that far.

And I don't give a rat's ass what legal position anyone claims for all those years of destruction...want a true body count? Then we're talking almost 2 decades...and not just since 2003.

[flashl]

4. Good and valid point. n/t

[IndyOp]

5. Exactly - The work to destroy Iraq began long ago and continued seamlessly thru Bill Clinton

The work to destroy Iraq began with Bush I with the Gulf War (and its nightmarish aftermath), continued seamlessly through Clinton (U.N./U.S. economic sanctions and regular bombings in the "no fly zone" -- load of bull), and escalated during Bush II. My profound dislike and distrust of Hillary comes directly from Bill's foreign policy. The DLC'ers will sacrifice life for profit at any time.

Real Shock & Awe: 1,405,000 Iraqis dead, 15 years sanctions & occupation (Wed Oct 11th 2006)

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act."

What will it take to wake up the US? The whole truth, from a historical perspective, that places 'blame' appropriately on the shoulders of many leaders, many groups. You may categorize me as a "blame America firster" because I am critical of the US role in the Persian Gulf War, United Nations Economic Sanctions, and the Iraq War. If so, then so be it. The US played key roles in all of these events and the consequence is shocking:

In 15 Years (1991-2006), the US has caused/contributed to at least 1,405,000 Iraqi deaths

Persian Gulf War: 150,000
Gulf War Aftermath: Many thousands
UN Sanctions: Primary cause of 600,000 deaths
Iraq War: 655,000

Important: Whether or not you believe that US foreign policy caused all of these deaths - the death toll is a valid, conservative estimate of Iraqi deaths in the past 15 years in excess of what would have been expected if there had been peace. PLEASE TELL PEOPLE THIS NUMBER -- maybe it is big enough to shock the American public awake and cause them to realize the true devastation in Iraq: 1,405,000

The Persian Gulf War did not have to happen: Hussein did not invade Kuwait until after he had received an assurance from April Gillespie that the "US had no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts." Even if he had invaded, alternatives to war were available.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/provide_comfort.htm

The Gulf War Aftermath Encouraged by American radio broadcasts to rise up against their ‘dictator’, the Kurds of northern Iraq rebelled against a nominally defeated and certainly weakened Saddam Hussein in March of 1991. Fear of being drawn into an Iraqi civil war and possible diplomatic repercussions precluded President Bush from committing US forces to support the Kurds. Within days Iraqi forces recovered and launched a ruthless counteroffensive including napalm and chemical attacks from helicopters. They quickly reclaimed lost territory and crushed the rebellion. By the first week of April, 800 to 1,000 people, mostly the very young and the very old, were dying each day. link Al Franken has said that many 100,000's of Kurds and Shia were slaughtered, but I do not have a printed source.

UN (US/UK Sanctions) The United Nations Security Council has maintained comprehensive economic sanctions on Iraq from August 1990 until March 2003. Sanctions in Iraq hurt large numbers of innocent civilians not only by limiting the availability of food and medicines, but also by disrupting the whole economy, and reducing the national capacity of water treatment, electrical systems and other infrastructure critical for health and life. The oil-for-food program provided an average of $200 per year for each of 23,000,000 Iraqis - well below the international poverty level. In the UN Security Council, countries urged the US and UK to allow the sanctions to be lifted, but the US/UK would not allow this.

http://www.j-n-v.org/AW_briefings/JNV_briefing075.htm


Iraq War & Occupation A Johns Hopkins University study published in the British medical journal The Lancet in October, 2004. // The figure of 100,000 had been based on somewhat "conservative assumptions", notes Les Roberts at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, U.S., who led the study. That estimate excludes Falluja, a hotspot for violence. If the data from this town is included, the compiled studies point to about 250,000 excess deaths since the outbreak of the U.S.-led war. // Eman Ahmad Khamas.... said: "This occupation has destroyed Iraq. Americans don't know that tens of thousands of Iraqis are in prisons. Americans don't know how many have been killed. Lancet reported 100,000 in 2004, not counting Falluja. Now it is something like double this number."


October 11, 2006 -Updated Iraq Survey Affirms Earlier Mortality Estimates
Mortality Trends Comparable to Estimates by Those Using Other Counting Methods

As many as 654,965 more Iraqis may have died since hostilities began in Iraq in March 2003 than would have been expected under pre-war conditions, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. The deaths from all causes—violent and non-violent—are over and above the estimated 143,000 deaths per year that occurred from all causes prior to the March 2003 invasion.

http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2006/burnham_iraq_2006.html

[Spurt]

6. K&R