I know there are other people here that trade stocks/futures??.

[Joe for Clark]

I don't trade crude - but I do look. There is a bizzare price inversion I think.
It has made 7 straight record highs thru today. Closed at about 82. But as the futures go out in time it drops a lot, like 10 a barrel. Why??

I listened to the some of the explainations given - and they sound like BS to me.

Cause in the end - doesn't the inversion really mean that some "significant interest" is betting on events going on, driving the price, now and that they will not be there in six months? What events? Demand is going to drop 12% or so 6 months from now???

Like I said I don't trade crude - but maybe some of you do -any idea who the big players are here??

Is it Mesa??

Joe

[skids]

1. Look for the STOCK MARKET WATCH thread...

...posted every trading day in the latest breaking news forum. Your birds of a feather are there.

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

2. I follow the prices too, and they do not make sense to me either.

There is a daily Stock Market thread in Late Breaking News M-F. Maybe someone there could answer this question fully for you. Here is a link to todays thread.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2996924
Good luck Joe, and prayers sent for your boy.

[Joe for Clark]

3. Thank you guys.

[Nite Owl]

4. Prices would drop if

supply is projected to increase. Most answers in the market are basic: supply/demand. As we come to the winter months less will be used and there is less threat from storms to disrupt supply. More supply, less demand=less ability to price upward.

[Joe for Clark]

6. I understand price/demand -

You understand - my father ran an oil company - and I smell crap. Dangerous crap.

Joe

[pitohui]

5. oil prices and hurricane season

we are in the peak of hurricane season and there is a decent chance of an interruption of supply from the gulf of mexico, in fact, shell oil withdrew personnel from its platforms yesterday because of the threat (now reduced) of a coming tropical storm or hurricane in the northern gulf of mexico this weekend

in 6 months it will not be atlantic hurricane season and supply will not be as likely to experience interruptions

most usa oil comes from usa sources such as the gulf of mexico, or from north american imported sources like mexico or canada -- so weather around drilling platforms can be an important factor -- the middle east is a noisy source of imported oil but it is not our first source

i'm sure there are other factors than tropical storm season, but that is just one factor that explains why oil prices might be higher in october than in april

caveat: i do not trade futures nor do i recommend that people w. limited funds to invest trade futures, this is a game for the insider w. lots of disposable money to gamble with

[Joe for Clark]

7. It is treacherous - futures. You better really know the deal or

you can lose your money in 15 minutes. Literally.

This isn't about storms I think. It is about events that may be there 6 or more months from now that are not there now. Somebody bet a lot of money on that premise.

10 a barrel on oil - if you trade futures, you know you could retire on that kind of movement - at 99-1 leverage - you bet you could.

Who made this bet??

Joe

[DemReadingDU]

8. I don't understand futures, but it will be winter in a few months

People don't drive as much in the winter as in the summer (for vacations). So is this 10 a barrel on oil, is it more than the usual for winter?


Edit to add this link. Maybe the attack on the pipleline bears something to the 10 a barrel on oil
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=1848354

[Joe for Clark]

9. It is weird. But if you take a barrel of oil and coke it it produces

different product. Heavier stuff goes in your furnace, and the lighter stuff goes in your butane lighter. The meat of it, however - it goes in your gas tank.

SO - does driving a car go down 12 % in march?? You still have to go to work, don't you??

I would think about it just like that.

And no - this inversion - it is bizzare - at least in magnitude.

Joe