Why 'SOUTHERN POLITICS' is OBSOLETE (featuring "facts" and "data"!!!)

[Dob Bole]

So I'm an amateur political scientist and strategist. I've also held public office in the rural South (ok, so I was Mayoral Youth Advisory Chairman when I was 17.) Every time the South is mentioned on DU, it is usually preceded by "Fuck the," is expanded to encompass nearly every part of the country so that it can be blamed for something, and an assumption is made that the majority of Southerners are Bull Connor. But most importantly, I'm about to prove that "the South" no longer exists in any of the ways that you think of it. Spectacular! On with the laser show!*


MYTH NUMBER A: RACE IS A DECIDING FACTOR

One time in 1948, Strom Thurmond ran for President as an independent Dixiecrat to oppose desegration. He only won three states.

One time in 1964, Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Segregationists were pissed. Johnson carried Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, the Virginias, Florida, and the whole rest of the country, except Arizona. He won.

One time when Jimmy Carter was first elected governor of Georgia, he declared that segregation had no future and placed a portrait of Martin Luther King, Jr. in the statehouse. The result? Segregationists were pissed. Georgia went on to vote for Jimmy Carter again in 1976, and again over Ronald Reagan in 1980.

In 2006, Harold Ford, Jr. got the same percentage of the vote in a Tennessee senate race, that the last white guy who ran as a Democrat for Senate in Tennessee got. (48/51) Meanwhile, in neighboring-ish Virginia, Sen. George Allen lost re-election exactly because he made a racist remark.

The point: race is not a deciding factor in Southern politics. It was in 1920. Using math, we can determine that 1920 was approximately 87 years ago.
There are still racists in the South, to be sure, (and especially lots of ethnocentrists) but they are a minority embedded within the Republican party.


MYTH NUMBER B: DEMOCRATS DO NOT GET SOUTHERN CULTURE, AND/OR SOUTHERN CULTURE IS INHERENTLY UN-DEMOCRATIC

I, too, have fallen prey to this myth in the past. I have suggested that Democrats should be stuffing grits in their mouths, and washing them down with sweet tea. I have suggested that they fry their fish, before going to a tent revival, and using the John Edwards accent. And for the love of God, they should be populists like Huey Long.

While these could help, the truth is that the South, and its culture, have actually shrunk quite a bit. "The South," as understood in ethnic-groupish terms, is now concentrated in a handful of states, half of which Bill Clinton won.

MYTH NUMBER C: PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND THE SOLID SOUTH

Between the 1880s and 1920 (when racists DID dominate southern politics) Southern states never voted for a Republican candidate. Honestly, they were really pissed about losing the Civil War. Afterwards, though, there was NEVER a "Solid South" again! The South is gone, it's not a voting bloc!

Since World War II, only two Presidential candidates have won the area formerly known as Solid South (except in national landslides.) They were Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush. How did they win in the South? It's NOT THE SOUTH STUPID, YOU'RE MISSING THE POINT!


THE POINT: IT'S NOT THE SOUTH, STUPID! IT'S THE BIBLE BELT!!!

The South, as defined in Old South, racial terms, fails to exist even when pundits and political strategists want it to. What they should be paying attention to instead is the Bible Belt, pictured here:




The area in red is where evangelicals, of at least two primary skin colors, make up a majority of the electorate. (I can't wait to hear the ignorant things you post about evangelicals.) Does it now make sense that the last two Democratic presidents were Southern Baptists, and that the last five losers were not? That the winner of the Presidential election is always the person who carries Missouri? That Democratic control of the Senate depended on races in Missouri, Virginia, and Florida in 2006? It's the Bible, stupid!

Discuss.







*The laser show takes place at Stone Mountain, Georgia. It is in the South.

[Bluebear]

1. 'I can't wait to hear the ignorant things you post about evangelicals.'

Well, who could ignore such an inviting, warm invitation to "discuss" with that little statement thrown in!

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dob Bole]

8. That statement was mainly targeted toward...well, broad-brushing ignoramuses.

I didn't want you to have to be exposed to this knowledge, but there actually are a few people on DU who are simple-minded and bigoted. When Alaska votes for Bush, they say "I hate the South!" Or when Pat Robertson says another stupid thing, they say "I hate evangelicals!" even though they enjoy the freedoms that Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Southern Christian Leadership Conference have fought for.

It is to these venomous heroes of DU that I dedicate that statement. But I like you.

[Bluebear]

9. What I don't get though, is your red-sprayed area kind of looks like "the South" to me

Do you think framing the area as "the Bible Belt" is somehow more attractive than "the South"?

[Dob Bole]

12. Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and West Texas are the South?

Here we go again...

The point is, the Democratic Party is campaigning to try to win over the wrong voters. They are trying to win over Larry-the-Cable-Guy types, when they should be going after "moderate" evangelicals. When they do this, they win.

[Bluebear]

14. Well don't get frustrated . .

I see your point vis a vis the geography, but if you tell an evil new England liberal like me that we have to court the "Bible belt" vote, well, something goes zoing inside.

[Dob Bole]

16. I know, because you think it requires sacrificing your principles...

Which is another myth that I forgot to address.

The fact is, in the 2006 election a majority of evangelicals voted for Democrats...but the media only reported on white ones. 10 million "born again" Christians voted for Al Gore...also ignored. Jim Wallis is to the left of most Democratic politicians, yet when he addressed Congressional Dems after the 2004 elections I remember a lot of DUers saying "Oh no, we're pandering to fundies!"

[Breeze54]

21. To be fair, the 'fundies' were all over the airwaves and in

both houses and the president claimed to be a 'fundie evangelical
that had god calling him on a regular basis! Can you blame us?
You must remember all that went on? Nuclear Sunday (?) ring a bell??
Or what ever it was called! :rofl: I can't remember now. Lots of BS!

[Dob Bole]

23. Yeah...lol

But Democrats can (and have) won in these states. They just can't make distinctions between enemies and friends sometimes. So they get frustrated and yell "STUPID CHRISTIANS!!!"...and then it doesn't end well.

Speaking of airwaves, take James Dobson for example. 4 million listeners. 4 million is a lot of people, to be sure, but not a mainstream group in American Christianity, or even evangelicalism.

[Donnachaidh]

30. and y'all missed the Myth NUMBER *A*

Myth NUMBER *B* and Myth NUMBER *C*!

Such sublime reasoning. :eyes:

[Breeze54]

2. Already knew it was those 'bible thumpers"!

:P

How could we not know with the CRW holding political rallies in the churches?
There's a church on every corner in the south, from what I've been told.
That's a lot of preaching and it isn't always about the bible.

[Bluebear]

3. "It's the Bible, stupid!"

:crazy:

[Perky]

5. Have not seen yiou in a while Dob...Welcome back

[Dob Bole]

13. Thanks. I should be writing a 25-page paper right now...

But DU is more fun.

[zabet]

6. Hooray...

for the Bible Belt. :crazy:
Southeastern NC - lotsa Baptist Churchs 'round here.

[dmallind]

7. Maybe it's just me but....

.....that red area looks pretty much like it's the South to me.

So is your thesis that Dem candidates don't need to drink sweet tea and eat fried fish any more, but they need to suggest stoning gays and ostracizing atheists instead?

Pass the fish someone.....

[Dob Bole]

10. Yes. But only stone gays the way that Jim Webb and Jimmy Carter did. nt

[dmallind]

35. Except

The SBC of the mid 70s is not the SBC of the mid 00's - they are far more virulent and inimical now, as well as far more engaged in (exclusively right wing) political causes.

And Jim Webb had the good fortune to be running against a campaign that was plagued with errors, he is a very conservative Democrat on many issues, and has an impeccable military/security image. It's hardly a blueprint that can be replicated too easily or too widely.

Trust me I'm all for running a candidate who doesn't say "I'm a gun-control advocate, an atheist and a homosexual" on their first stop in Alabama, but I don't want one who has to start snake handling and speaking in tongues either (in case it's not apparent, both options use hyperbole for effect).

[Dob Bole]

39. And what's wrong with a progressive snake-handling tongue-speaker?

Al Sharpton is a Pentecostal, after all...but I admit, the snake handling would be a giant political liability.

Also, what you may not realize is that the Southern Baptist Convention of the mid-1970s DOES still exist. There have been many splits since the fundamentalists took over, and there are now more Southern Baptists outside of the convention than in it. These include the Alliance of Baptists, The Baptist General Convention of Texas (yes, the entire state of Texas left the SBC) and the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship, which President Carter is a part of. These churches all are in many ways more traditional than the SBC, and still believe in separation of church and state.

[mitchtv]

26. My term

Flyover states

[southerncrone]

11. From my Southern perspective, you are exactly right.

The rest of the country, including MSM continues to label Southerners as "racist". We have been a convenient whipping boy since the Civil War. I have been to other parts of the country that are much more racist than the rural area where I live. Unfortunately, there are still racists in the South, too, but not everyone belongs to the KKK.

The South IS about Christianity, in particular Protestant Christianity. Dominated by the Evangelical & Pentecostal camps. Church is a way of life in the South, akin to family. This sector worships not only Christ, but their pastors as well, & if the pastor says "liberal" ideas are bad, then that is how they vote.

It will be interesting to see how things play out now that there have been so many Repuke scandals concerning high-level, highly-"religious-right", perverts. My money says whatever "Pastor" says will likely prevail....whether it is Anti-Repub or Anti-Dem.

[karlrschneider]

15. I helped out your map. The bible belt is bigger than you think

edit: yah, I know I missed a few spots, was doing it extemporaneously...and with no actual data, just my own observation. ;-)

[Dob Bole]

17. You defaced Wikipedia's map! They're going to kill me!

I can only hope that Wikipedia are Mennonites...

[karlrschneider]

18. Don't worry, they only shoot blanks.

:rofl: :D

[lonestarnot]

20. Hey, AZ is not red on your damn map. Guess they are just a buncha

dumb ass red necks a hang'n off a saddlehorn steada the Bible. Can't think of any other excuse except money.

[eggman67]

19. They've also been Governors

Actually Southern/Western Governors has been a trend. Maybe people like Executive experience. I know it's a plus with me.

Carter - Georgia
Reagan - California
Clinton - Arkansas
Bush - Texas


My candidate in the primary...

Richardson - New Mexico

[paynebs]

22. race and religion in the South

In the 64 presidential election Johnson won by a landslide but still lost a solid block of deep south states. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina all were won by Goldwater, but Goldwater won hardly any other states. This is, I think, solid evidence that Johnson was hated by segregationists for the Civil Rights Act, and showed a trend that began but did not manifest itself fully in 1964. It simply took a little longer for the Dixiecrats to become Republicans in the other "slightly less southern states" over the next few years.

Both race and religion still matter in the southern vote - and guns. The Southern Trinity.

[Dob Bole]

25. If that's so, then why did those "Goldwater states" vote for Carter? And Clinton?

The racists are already factored into the Republican vote...ergo, not Democrats or Independents. The 2006 election results should be proof enough of that.

[Selatius]

34. Carter was a southern protestant, and so was Clinton.

"Jimmy Carter, peanut farmer." Remember that little jig? But I think it was more the fact that he was also a former governor from Georgia. Clinton was governor of Arkansas. In Clinton's case, people were pissed off at Bush Senior over his promise of no new taxes, which is why record numbers also voted for the Reform Party that year. In Carter's case, the Republicans were still radioactive after the Nixon debacle, and Carter was a Baptist, like Clinton after him if I'm not mistaken.

[Hawaii Hiker]

27. Welcome to DU Paynebs

Perhaps to evangelicals who are primarily concerned with issues like health care, social security, Iraq disaster, education, etc. Demcorats can get their vote...But to the evangelicals whose primary focuses in life are to overturn Roe V. Wade, enact a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, etc., Democrats will never get their vote...

I do not think Democrats need the south in 2008...If Gore won New Hampshire (4 EV) in 2000, he's president....If Kerry would have won Ohio (and some say he did) he's president....My belief is the interior west (MO, NM, NV, CO) are the states that are the most important in 2008...There are alot more of the social libertarian (stay off my land & out of my bedroom) types in the west than there are in the south, thus they are more likely to vote Democrat.....

Now of course this is ASSUMING that California does NOT split its electoral votes as has been proposed by a corrupt lawyer from Sacramento last week....I'll admit, that story has angered me like nothing else ever has in politics, as it is such a blatant attempt to steal an election.... :banghead:

[annabanana]

38. Well hey there!

Welcome to DU, paynebs!

I have noticed that when a Southerner is a liberal.. It is a ferocious liberal indeed! (must come of all that push-back)

[jgraz]

24. Aaargh!!! FACTS and DATA!!!!

My eyes!!! My EYES!!!!!!

[Maddy McCall]

28. Where are the facts and data?

I don't see anything that demonstrates that Southern politics is dead. You don't define "Southern politics," much less prove that "Southern politics" is dead.

Signed,

Maddy from Texassippi

[Dob Bole]

41. Hmm...it may not be dead in Texassippi

My point is that all of the people who comment on a "Southern Strategy" are missing the point, because the South is simply part of a much larger area in which evangelicals dominate. There are still politics in the South, of course. However, it usually isn't racially motivated or culture-specific. The South votes the way that the rest of the Bible Belt votes. Political commentators who note that the winner of the Presidential election is always the person who carries Missouri have not exactly grasped why.

[depakid]

29. I don't see much data

:shrug:

[johnaries]

31. The #1 business in Nashville, TN is NOT music - by far.

It's publishing. Mainly because the Methodist Publishing House and the Southern Baptist Sunday School Board both do all of their publishing here - for the entire country.

Nashville has been called the Buckle of the Bible Belt.

And yet, Nashville is blue. Nashville votes Democratic in almost every election. Now, immediately south of Nashville/Davidson County is Williamson County. Williamson County is very, very red. Marsha Blackburn is from Williamson County, if that tells you anything. Williamson County is also the richest county in TN, by far.

I agree with you that there is no longer any such thing as the "Solid South" and there hasn't been for many decades. No matter how much non-Southerners may want to believe it.

Politics in the South is much more complicated than Segregation OR Religion. The rest of the country may not want to admit that because they would rather just disregard the South rather than try to understand it. For instance, TN tends to be Conservative in the East, Liberal in the West, and Centrist in the... well, Central area. But, even that is an over-generalization because urban areas in the East tend to be Liberal and rural areas in the center tend to be Conservative. Really, across the state urban areas are Liberal and rural areas are Conservative. I think that's a much more accurate picture than religion or fundamentalism.

But I agree, people just need to wake up and realize that the old stereotypes about the South just don't apply anymore.

[Hippo_Tron]

32. Do Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Wyoming, and The Dakotas also have Evangelical Majorities?

Or do they vote Republican because of gun control?

[benEzra]

36. Personally, I think it's the gun issue.

And a lot of gun owners are very uncomfortable with the "live the way Ralph Reed says" wing of the repubs, but feel a theocracy is less likely than "assault weapon" confiscation or whatever, and vote for what they consider the "lesser of two evils."

Alienated Rural Democrat (2004)

Dems and the Gun Issue - Now What? (written in '04, largely vindicated in '06, IMO)

[eridani]

33. I think it's still North-South, but it doesn't fall out according to state boundaries anymore

It's the "shut your mouth and OBEY" versions of religion, militarism, misogyny, racism, I've got mine so fuck everybody else vs. reason, the public good, and working toward human rights for everybody, no exceptions.

Every state is a purple state, IMO. The ones called "red" have a 60/40 or 55/45 tilt in one direction, and the ones called "blue" have a 60/40 or 55/45 tilt the other way.

[annabanana]

37. "it is usually preceded by "Fuck the," . . . ."

I haven't seen it, certainly not to the extent you are claiming..
"usually"?

really?

[Dob Bole]

40. Are you suggesting that I in some way exaggerate?

Never! ;)