Watching for Dean

[RL3AO]

...not Howard Dean.

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the Eastern Caribbean for possible development of Tropical Storm Dean.

Anyway, it is August which means the tropical forecast updates are coming out. Dr. Grey from Colorado State is predicting 13 more tropical storms, 8 more hurricanes and 4 more major hurricanes this season. That would bring the season to 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricane which is above average. The NOAA update is due soon.

Now if you live near the Gulf Coast or East coast you should start paying attention. The tropics are starting to really heat up. Very impressive waves have been pouring off of Africa since June, but only now are conditions getting favorable for development. This season has been slightly above average with 3 storms (did you miss the third one? It came and left on Tuesday).

As for the conditions in the Caribbean sea. Water temperatures are near average, much lower than in 2005. The main reason is...*drumroll*...dust. Major dust storms from the Saharan desert have been blocking some of the sun over the Caribbean preventing water temps from skyrocketing in the untouched water. Also, a moderate La Nina is foretasted to develop which helps lower wind shear and makes development much easier.

The Gulf of Mexico is very hot but wind shear has prevented too much from spinning up. But now it looks like if a storm gets in the Gulf with low wind shear...well not good.

There is my tropical update...be prepared.

[babylonsister]

1. It always amazes me a guy in CO is predicting this.

I am aware, and a bit worried. I live in TX near the coast, and it's been pretty darn hot, though we've had a lot of rain this year. Don't know if that might be keeping some temps down.
Thanks for the update.

[RL3AO]

2. He is one of the smartest in the country though.

[shance]

3. There are ways to watch and to modify our weather.

Look up the Weather Modification Acts of 2005

They were also modifying weather all the way back in Vietnam.

There is also a Texas Weather Modification Act of 1967

Something that isn't addressed nearly as much as it should be.

[babylonsister]

4. Can you tell me why the weatherpeople are wrong so often? It must be

an inexact science. I've always thought it must be a great job to have; you really never have to be right.

[RL3AO]

5. Enough isn't know about how the atmosphere works.

Imagine trying to predict how the atmosphere of the entire earth works.

[babylonsister]

6. Especially with global warming-all bets are off! nt