Pentagon war games show Bush wrong on Iraq pullout; Qaeda unlikely to succeed

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from RawStory: http://rawstory.com/news/2007/War_games_show_Bush_wrong_on_0719.html


Thursday July 19, 2007

Supporters of the war in Iraq -- including President George W. Bush -- claim that a withdrawal of US forces would lead to an al Qaeda takeover of Iraq. Yet according to Pentagon war games, this scenario is highly unlikely.

On Wednesday's Countdown Keith Olbermann interviewed Washington Post correspondent Thomas Ricks who discussed his article on Pentagon war gaming for a post-US Iraq.

Pentagon simulations on US withdrawal find the most likely scenario would be a three-way split of the country between Kurds, Shias, and Sunnis. Ricks warns while the breakup would be "very ugly," with possibly "tens of thousands of people dying," an al Qaeda takeover of Iraq would not be possible by "any stretch of the imagination."

In addition, the war games also found Iran would not benefit from US withdrawal, and in fact would be sucked in to the same kind of destabilizing sectarian conflict the US finds itself embroiled in.

Olbermann asked Ricks whether it is fair to draw the conclusion that the best way to stop Iran from interfering in Iraq is to leave, to which Ricks responded, that while there are no "good answers" left in Iraq, leaving would make it significantly easier to deal with Iran.

Ricks noted that while these lessons appear to be taken to heart by members of the military, it is ultimately up to them to convince the White House come September, when this war will become "General Petraeus' war" just as much as it is Bush's.

video: http://rawstory.com/news/2007/War_games_show_Bush_wrong_on_0719.html

[wiggs]

1. Important. Front page important. knrnt.

[indepat]

2. Withdrawal of US troops might endanger the heist of trillions of dollar of Iraqi oil fbo big oil and

that ain't likely to happen on the neocon watch.

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3. .

[Ganja Ninja]

4. Wrong again?

This guy never breaks form.

[sampsonblk]

5. I call hogwash

I agree on the conclusions, but we can't rest our case on the results of war games. Especially since the Bush Pentagon still has no idea what we are up against or how to deal with it. Garbage in, garbage out.

[bigtree]

6. what this shows is that the Pentagon, who is pushing the notion of a threat

from al-Qaeda has their own internal, institutional contradiction of that conclusion.

[sampsonblk]

7. I can go along with that-nt