Can McCain bounce back?

[saltpoint]

Poll question: Can McCain bounce back?

His campaign is now sputtering, running on fumes. The coffers are nigh empty. His position on the surge is unpopular. At least 3 Republicans are out-polling him for the 2008 nomination.

Can McCain survive this very low point, or do you feel he's done for?

This poll asks your take on his chances.

[NoPasaran]

1. Slim at best

I think he has a better chance of being mauled by wolverines.

[saltpoint]

4. Agree. And I haven't seen that many wolverines lately.

[napi21]

2. McCain has had many things against him this whole campaign.

Kissing-up to Shrub.

Support for the war.

HIS AGE! (He's looked like a tired old man for months!)

His position on illegal immigration.

Low ability to raise $$.

I don't see ANY of those things changing, so I think he toast!

[saltpoint]

6. Yes. The odds were shakey to start with, and McCain himself made it

far worse by vigorously endorsing the surge.

That was one dumb move.

[PBass]

3. The other Republicans are not giving a lot of lip service to "Stay The Course"

McCain could pick up some voters who think "winning" (sic) in Iraq is our biggest national priority, and who are repulsed by Rudy's many marriages and scandals.

I said his chances are "slim" but not non-existent.

[saltpoint]

8. Yes. McCain still has a constituency. A Republican who is

traditionally pro-military but who is appalled by Giuliani's "liberal" social positions might still have an eye for McCain.

[yardwork]

42. He lost that group with his stance on immigration.

Poor McCain. You can't keep the idiot base without being a bigot. That's why that group is so mad at chimp.

[madokie]

5. did he have a chance to start with

I think not

[saltpoint]

9. At one point I felt McCain would give us trouble in places like Ohio and

Michigan, but that was long ago. I don't think he's been a very persuasive voice for at least 5 years, maybe more. The maverick in him has been disabled, and all we've had in recent times is a sort of Bush mouthpiece on Iraq.

And Iraq is the one thing that has destroyed Bush's presidency more than anything else, not that there isn't plenty else to choose from.

Why McCain threw himself bodily into the Iraq cheering squad is completely beyond me.

[EST]

19. Interesting.

Very few people think that McCain actually believes in what he is saying. Every time he advocates the hawkish approach he has chosen, the fundamental message that he is dishonest and out of touch is what actually comes through.

The rest of it is just his proving to everyone that he has lost whatever political ability is necessary to adjust his own thinking to something a majority wants.

The bright spot in the effluent is that his campaign pretty much spells the end of his career as a senator, as well, no matter how it turns out.

[saltpoint]

23. EST, I take encouragement from your notion that McCain's

senate career will also be at an end.

I've never been hogwild about the man. I appreciate very much his service to our country and acknowledge his courage in the face of the cruelty he faced as a captive.

But my god that voting record.

[EST]

37. A lot of people have now recognizing that McCain is not at all

what he has appeared.
His wartime experience, which he has massaged and twisted into some kind of credential to confirm that he knows enough about war to avoid it, is a creation of political necessity-a construction of cloudstuff.

His military work, although it obviously contained its moments of danger, primarily consisted of rolling out of a comfortable berth, flying off the carrier and shooting up a bunch of stationary targets then returning in time for supper and no fleas in the cot.

His time in the Hanoi Hilton might speak to his ability to absorb abuse and survive, but it says nothing about his ability to lead or of some existential moment that granted some fundamental insight to qualify him for such an important job.

Like Guiliani and his cloud picture of personal 9-11 heroism and penetrating wisdom in crisis management, McCain's political career was built around the worship of imaginary heroism and has no moments of shining ability, rising above the crowd. More stage management.

And now, even his ability to manipulate an unobservant constituency has deserted him-too fu*king bad!

[saltpoint]

40. Yes, there is a sense of destiny having passed by at this

stage of the game for McCain.

In a film, someone like John McCain could have played John McCain. But politics is more severe than most film scripts, and the "real" John Mccain isn't real enough to be the people's president.

[tammywammy]

7. No chance

His campaign has been floundering for a while, it's just finally in the last woes of death.

[saltpoint]

11. Far has he fallen from those glory days of the 2000 New Hampshire

primary.

I think he thought THAT McCain was still there. But I haven't seen that McCain in quite a long while.

[napi21]

14. I was just about to reply "THAT McCain disappeared back in 2000

and hasn't been seen since!" I'm REALLY surprised that HE hasn't realized that!

[saltpoint]

16. Yes. I wonder if he surrounds himself with yes-men who accommodate

his view of himself.

But the Republican primary polls show him falling behind Romney, Rudy, and now Thompson.

And there's no cash in the kitty.

Tough times ahead for the McCain campaign.

[tammywammy]

44. He can't be too delusional

I heard the other day that the campaign manager is working for no pay for the next couple of months. I think McCain's holding on, but when you're campaign is undergoing a "reorganization" you can only hold on so much.

I give him 3 months max.

[saltpoint]

45. Sounds about right, especially if he taps a few not-yet-begged-for

contributors.

But your observation about staff is the clincher.

Very soon, John McCain is exit stage far-right.

[EST]

10. Another discarded chip on history's trash pile.

People vote out of excitement or enthusiasm, not necessarily for the most qualified with the track record to prove it--not that McCain is qualified.

He is not an exciting candidate and has ben overexposed so that most humans who are not in his immediate circle recognize that he is a deeply dishonest man, carefully maintaining his slipping mask of likability, trying still to fool the unwary.

A bad smell, soon to fade away.

[saltpoint]

13. Yes. There's more than a trace of archaic crank to McCain.

The frequent temper outbursts, the off-the-cuff remarks that don't quite take in the gravity of circumstances, the Beach Boys "bomb-bomb-Iran" joke, and so forth.

He's too formal to be a curmudgeon, and doesn't have the personal knack for it. If he could have tapped into the Mark Twain thing, he'd have been better off. For the last several years, McCain has been on all these Sunday news-talk programs and all I've really heard is how swimmingly Iraq is going.

And Iraq is not going that well at all.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

12. About as much chance of bouncing back as a fresh cow turd from a tall cow.

[saltpoint]

15. For a moment there I wasn't sure if you were referring to McCain or

to David Vitter.

There seemed to be common themes, not least that their political careers may be at a dead end.

[AlCzervik]

17. unless all the Gopers have a Vitter or Macaca moment i'm saying there is no chance.

[saltpoint]

18. Sounds right. Romney strikes me as very prone to error. Not sure

what I'm basing that on -- just a personal bias, probably. But he seems absolutely wacko to me. Unstable. Creepy. Volatile. I could see him jamming both feet in his mouth and never recovering from it politically.

That, coupled with maybe Giuliani's exit from the race this fall, could buoy McCain long enough to compete.

Absent those things, though, I'm with you: otherwise he's out of there.

[AlCzervik]

21. Well Romney's Dad had a melt down and although i'm sure Romney must have

learned something from that episode i think he still steps in it a lot. I agree that he is uber creepy and too slick by half, i always feel like he's trying to sell me something and he's the only one that gives me that specific feeling. So much is going to happen between now and the first primary, 6 months seems like a lifetime in politics.

[EFerrari]

24. Romney's $ from MA and UT is drying up -- down by about half. n/t

[AlCzervik]

27. having been born and raised in Ma and lived till i was 30 and knowing how my own

family feels about Romney is amazes me he's gotten any funds from the great state of Ma. I'm going back home for a visit next week and you can bet i'll be talking to friends and family about Mitt. I still remember watching Ted Kennedy opening up a costco size can of whoop ass on him during the Ma. Senatorial debate--it was delicious.

[EFerrari]

33. Maybe the money was corporate? What are the chances?

:)

[AlCzervik]

34. 200% sounds about reasonable.

[Benhurst]

28. In fairness, his father didn't have a meltdown. He made a statement

he had been brainwashed about the Vietnam War when he came out against it. The corporate press jumped all over his use of the word (we had all been brainwashed about Vietnam War, the Domino Theory, and God only knows what else in support of American Business Imperialism's little adventure in the Far East), and he was effectively destroyed, not for a "crazy" statement, but for telling the truth and coming out against the war.

That said, his son is creepy and too slick by half. Unlike his father, though, such qualities make him a perfect fit for the current right-wing, Dixiecrat-turned-Republican Party. Now if he can just get the Barn-agains to ignore his offbeat religious beliefs ... .

[EFerrari]

20. Apparently, the Thuggery at the state and local level

are mad about the "McCain" part of McCain/Feingold. That's his real problem, imho. I don't think the man can bounce -- it's hard to imagine how he walks upright after all that bending over to Junior.

But, I can't help wondering what BushCo has promised him because it did seem, for the last few years, that a deal had been struck. :shrug:

[saltpoint]

25. Good mornin' to ya, sfexpat2000. Yes. I feel a deal had been struck

also.

It just vibrated in the air. Something to the effect of "You bend over and kiss my boots on Iraq and I'll see to it that (whatever)." Possibly something about the 2008 nomination, possibly having Slobberin' Jeb as a running mate with boffo funding options, etc. Who knows?

But right now nothing seems to be going very well for McCain. There isn't enough staff in his headquarters for a good poker game, and there's no money to play for anyway.

[EFerrari]

29. I heard that. He doesn't seem very worried, though.

It must be reassuring to be on the right side of a criminal mafia.

[saltpoint]

30. LOL! That's right. When all the shootin' was goin' down in Chicago,

Al Capone was in Miami.

"See, Judge? I was outta town at da time. Couldnah been me, no sir."

[assclown_bush]

22. Let's just say he "Chose Unwisely"...

Even the lowest forms of repugs are turning against the war. He has decided to stand up with the "war preznit" and it has cost him. And well it should.

[saltpoint]

26. I love your phrase, "the lowest forms of repugs." That lets us know

we're talkin' LOW right out of the gate.

And you're right on all counts.

McCain had a choice. I'm assuming he had a choice. There may be mitigating circumstances, but in an elemental way we all have a choice, and as you say, he chose unwisely.

[Hubert Flottz]

31. Turds tend to splatter instead of bouncing.

For an Expert opinion though...you may want to ask Dave Vitter...

[saltpoint]

32. A thoughtful redirection of the issue. Let's do pen a letter to Vitter's

office right away for his insights.

As for McCain, I think he had a reasonable-to-good chance as late as 2006, but by the end of that year, I felt his stars were no longer aligned.

I think he's done for.

[Hubert Flottz]

35. I think the country if far better off without him gaining any more power

He proved time and time again he couldn't handle the power he has! He did not defend the Constitution against George Bush's outlaw gang...he embraced and enabled Bush! The people see now, what a calamity Bush truly is. McCain is a shallow minded, self serving, hack, who can't be trusted...

[saltpoint]

36. My view is very close to yours, mitigated only by McCain's years of

detention in Viet Nam. I also felt he was smeared by Rove -- or whoever -- in the 2000 South Carolina primary. That was more dirty business by the Bush team.

Apart from that, though, we're on the same page with his strategy with Bush and the war, etc.

[Hubert Flottz]

43. The fact that McCain really does know so much about the reality

of war, makes it that much worse, for me to tolerate his support for the PNAC's war in Iraq. McCain has to have known, that the war was based on lies from the very out-set. You and I could see that Bush was lying and we never had anywhere near the information that McCain must have had. I was sickened to the very core by McCain and Bush's big hug at the repub convention. Sucking up to the very man who had totally trashed himself and his family just four years before, in campaign 2000. McCain has done nothing but carry Bush's dirty water for 7 years. The way I see it McCain and all the rest of the GOPers in congress are cowards, to have watched what Bush has done and to have done NOTHING to stop it. McCain is every bit as Guilty as Bush himself.

I did my time in the Army...I've worked and paid my taxes...I've played by the rules...I've loved my country, even sometimes when I could hardly stomach the direction the country was headed. God forgive me, but I can't help but despise McCain and Bush and the entire GOP/neocon leadership, for the damage they have done to America and to her image around the world, for years to come.

[saltpoint]

46. And I believe voters out there hear you on that.

McCain's numbers aren't falling for lack of exposure. Hell, he's on MEET THE PRESS every 20 minutes.

It's because of the support of the PNAC agenda generally and George W. Bush specifically. That Iraq albatross is getting mighty, mighty heavy, and the McCain campaign can't carry it up too steep a hill.

[JacquesMolay]

38. Not after that immigration vote. And he deserves it for ...

... going right-wing and supporting Bush's war. He tried to mollify the right-wing nut jobs, then swung back to the center and supported amnesty, really confusing. He's alienated the GOP base again - he's done.

[saltpoint]

39. Very good point on the flip-flopping he's done back and forth on

immigration and other issues.

He's blurred his own ideological profile.

Never a good idea in a primary campaign.

[book_worm]

41. You mean mentally? I doubt it.

[saltpoint]

49. McCain's mental health may be an unspoken issue. He looked

fairly refreshing -- for a Republican, I mean -- in the 2000 primary in New Hampshire, when he trounced Bush. New Hampshire Republicans clearly and strongly preferred McCain's maverick personality to Dubya's dimwitted bullshit.

So much so that Rove (or someone) was called into action to smear McCain in the upcoming South Carolina primary.

The dirt and desperation of that is a story in itself.

But the maverick McCain is long gone. Faded like the Old West, so to speak. And his constituency, which is still there, is narrower than ever. He posed a great threat to us as early as a few years ago, but his glueing himself to Bush and the Iraq War has been stupid -- not to say phenomenally stupid.

At this hour he's swearing he'll stay in the race, but his staff is jumping ship ("like rats in a slumfire," to steal a phrase from Hunter S. Thompson) and there's no cash in the kitty.

He's out of there. And you may be right on the mental health question, too. He saw that the well was dark and deep and he jumped in anyway.

[judaspriestess]

47. he should take the romney approach and strap his pet dog

onto the top of the campaign bus and leave him up there for extended road trips. That should do the trick.

[saltpoint]

48. LOL! With McCain's mindset, he may have already threatened to

do that to his remaining campaign staff.

No wonder they're bailing out every thirty minutes or so.

[Disturbed]

50. McLame has an excellent chance at the nomination if

all the other candidates drop out.

[EFerrari]

51. That's as encouraging as learning that Saturdary contains

the word turd. (Don't blame me -- that was Garrison Keillor.)

[saltpoint]

52. True. And Jim Gilmore just began the stampede.

No sense dumping money down a rat hole.

And the race for the Republican nomination is a rat-race, no question about it.

[DFW]

53. I guess it's always POSSIBLE

Just like it's always possible a raw egg will bounce
up off a concrete floor. I just don't consider it very
likely.

[saltpoint]

54. Of the votes cast so far, it doesn't look as if John McCain's chances enjoy

much enthusiasm from DU observers.

I feel your misgivings are valid.

There have been some miraculous turnarounds in U.S. political history, but they don't happen that often and they require mitigating circumstances from without more than personal will or resources within.

Strictly speaking, money is not necessary for a win in politics, but it helps solve most of the problems politicians face in getting elected. No matter what we may think of rich people, they are the people sitting in most of the chairs in both chambers. John Kennedy was rich. FDR was rich. Right now John McCain is almost penniless. Even with his big wallet, Kennedy's election was by the thinnest of margins. Even with HIS big wallet, Dubya's "win" was still by a few hundred/thousand votes in Florida. Gore, also a rich man, won Florida before it was stolen from him.

So McCain needs cash -- cash he does not have and won't likely raise easily. Strike one.

Iraq could certainly turn around; I have no crystal ball geared to historical outcomes. But this morning's headlines are no more encouraging than yesterday's, or last week's, or last year's. No general is emphatically slobbering over our odds at "victory" in Iraq. And the retired generals are all saying it's a hopeless maelstrom and that we'd be better off to leave. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Bush's war, despite McCain's salutations to the virtues of the Surge. Strike two.

Even with an Iraq turnaround and deep coffers, it helps to have someone in the office answering the phone. Regrettably for McCain, his staff has jumped ship. They've packed up and shipped out. I take this as a gauge of their unwillingness to invest in the scheme of his campaign. They've considered his chances from the inside, judged them to be unworthy of their time and effort, would rather not go down with a loser, and have fled out the door in a real big rush. The McCain staffers seem to concur with one journalist who described the campaign as "a bi-plane ablaze spiralling downward." Note the allusion to a bygone era and an abandoned technology. On DU I likened McCain's campaign as dangling aimlessly like the busted latch on a crapper stall. There's no one at home, they can't recruit replacements in key early states, the McCain insiders and confidants are bailing. Strike three.