I don't understand the polls

[johan helge]

From http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm:

A)
CBS News/New York Times Poll. May 18-23, 2007. N=1,001 registered voters nationwide.
"If the 2008 election for president were being held today, would you probably vote for the Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Democratic Candidate: 49 %
Republican Candidate: 33 %


B)
Zogby America Poll. May 17-20, 2007. N=993 likely voters nationwide.

Giuliani: 48 %
Clinton: 43 %

Giuliani: 42 %
Obama: 48 %

Giuliani: 47 %
Edwards: 43 %


From A, it seems like any Democrat will win. From B, it seems like no Democrat will win, apart from Obama (and why Obama, I thought Americans wanted the President to be a white male?)?

[sandnsea]

1. Note different voters

Likely voters are more likely to be Republican. Quite often the differencre between voter and basic American will make a huge difference because people who would vote Democrat don't vote at all. Too often, people don't pay attention to those differences and the media rarely points to the difference so Democrats understand why they really keep losing.

[johan helge]

2. The difference between likely and registered voters

must be at least part of the explanation. I don't know anything about this, but is this difference really so big that it can explain most of this?

[sandnsea]

3. Explains some

But it also explains how fickle voters are, and how voting is more about a clear picture of a person than what the person is going to do. People still don't seem to believe political party really does make a difference in the economy, environment, etc. They still want to believe all Americans are basically good and will do the right thing, no matter how many times Republicans have shown them it's not true.

[johan helge]

6. The difference between likely and registered voters is not the main explanation

From the same source:

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. May 16-20, 2007. N=800 registered voters nationwide.

C)

Democratic Candidate: 46 %
Republican Candidate: 27 %



D)

Giuliani: 45 %
Clinton: 43 %

Giuliani: 41 %
Obama: 43 %

Giuliani: 43 %
Edwards: 42 %

The voters in C and D are the same.

[sandnsea]

9. Within the MOE

So alot of undecideds went with Giuliani. Your point?

[johan helge]

12. My point:

The difference between A and B is approximately the same as the difference between C and D. So the main explanation for the difference between A and B cannot be different voters, since the voters in C and D are the same. Or did you ask about something else? (I'm working, so I must leave the PC for a while.)

[johan helge]

15. The undecideds, of course

I didn't notice them. That's the explanation, of course. Lots of Repub-leaning voters are undecided on the A and C questions. But in the end, they are Repubs, so this means that B and D are the realistic polls. Which means that the Repubs can screw up endlessly, but still half the voters are going with them. Sickening, but all we can do is fight the madness.

[sandnsea]

20. "I vote for the man"

They're the ones. And they vote for strong defense and government that is necessary to them. In other words, Rudy Giuliani is very appealing. Especially since he's socially moderate, more moderate than some Democrats.

[DrRang]

13. Seems to me it's more about generic/utopian versus specific/flawed.

The generic Dem wins big against the generic GOPper because everyone in the country who can fog a mirror is fed up with the mess the Repubs have made of everything. But for a specific Dem, then every negative thing a voter has ever thought or heard about a candidate comes into play--Yeah, I want a Democratic President but Hilary's voice grates on my nerves; Obama sounds wonderful but what has he actually done; Well, I'm sick of hearing Edwards play po' boy; etc, yada yada. We all have warts.

It would be interesting to see what happened if you matched a generic against an actual. For example three polls showing a Generic Dem against Giuliani, Romney and McCain, or a Generic Repub against Clinton, Edwards, Obama, etc.

[ComerPerro]

4. Well, there are a lot of factors you have to consider

for one, you are comparing Dem/Repig polls to polls with specific names.

Given the choice between a media darling like Rudy (who apparently was a hero and a leader after 9/11, but that's what people used to say about Bush) and someone the media has spent time and money tearing down, like Obama, Edwards, and Clinton, and people will go with that favorable image.

[OHdem10]

5. Zogby polls are usually pretty accurate.

In the CBS Poll you will notice a generic Republican
versus a generic Democrat. No one named. It is not
unusual for polls to change once specific names are
attached.

In the Zogby poll names are attached.

This is why I never pay that much attention to to questions
in general. Do you prefer Democrat over Republican or
Republican over a Democrat.

Now that the Primaries are in progress. Rank and file
Republicans will gain hope. Having some outsiders gives
them a fresh look at their party.

Guilliani and Romney for example going around the country
"fighting terrorism" anc calling the Democrats "Defeatist"
"Waving the flag of Surrender", Democrats are going to bring
you Socialism in the form of health care. Raise your taxes.
This is not Congress. New faces saying the Immigration Bill
is bad.

It takes the attention away Congress and Bush and lowers
the Rhetoric.

These polls reflected just what I guessed. The Candidates
are not that well known and this is just about where
the American people are. Yes, unfortunately Americans
like what they perceive as Tough White Males. This does
not mean others cannot win. They just have to work twice
as hard. Nothing has changed on this front.

[OHdem10]

11. Zogby uses likely voters but he has developed

a better predicting formular.

Like Voters naturally skew Republican in any poll. Pew
Polls of likely voters skews almost 2-1 Republican.
because it is historically the practice that Republicans
can be depended on to go to the polls and vote.(They
have more at stake--better incomes, wealth.

Zogby has developed what appears to be a more accurate
formula using a series of criterior.
This is why I am always interested to see Zogby results.

This hurts to say but we have to keep in mind that peole
are not honest in response where race is involved.

Often Black Candidate(good candidatess) will poll much
higher than is reflected in the actural vote.

[Captain Hilts]

7. Hillary has a shadow vote and black candidates, usually, have higher poll #s than votes.

In NYS folks said they weren't going to vote for Hillary, then went in the booth and voted for her. Hence, her polling numbers are lower than her vote totals.

Black candidates have traditionally seen the mirror image pattern. Survey respondents are hesitant to come across as racists, so a certain percentage will say they're voting for the black candidate, then they go into the voting booth and vote for the white guy.

And, keep in mind, if you conduct surveys about non-existent people or policies, 15% will say they are familiar with it. Mostly men do this.

[zeemike]

8. The only thing you need to understand is

The first numbers.
Democratic Candidate: 49 %
Republican Candidate: 33 %
must be narrowed by 7 or 8 points before the next election. And one of the ways to do it is to tell people with polls which person they should vote for. And sense most want to vote for a winner they will move that way.
And once it has been established by the polls that it is too close to call simple theft is all you need.

[porphyrian]

10. Polls say what the people paying for them want them to say.

Don't waste your time with them.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. And, the first primary is?

The beauty contests (aka - debates), gotcha's, and other entertainments in the nominating circus have yet to numb everybody out and prepare them for the nose-holding ritual.

“Now, the man on the stand he wants my vote,
He's a-runnin' for office on the ballot note.
He's out there preachin' in front of the steeple,
Tellin' me he loves all kinds-a people.
(He's eatin' bagels
He's eatin' pizza
He's eatin' chitlins
He's eatin' bullshit!)”

Bob Dylan

[BuyingThyme]

16. I suspect that most Americans don't know whether Giuliani is

a Dem or a Puke. (Really.)

[MadBadger]

17. I think most Americans still think Rudy by himself:

Got in a fighter jet and shot down a terrorist fired-missile heading right for the Empire State Building and the statue of LIberty on 9/11. Because we all know what a great terrorism fighter he was on 9/11.

[BuyingThyme]

18. Yes, asking whether or not you would vote for Rudy is like

asking whether or not you support the troops.

[sandnsea]

21. Times Square, Crime

9/11. NYC Economy. He did what Americans want.

The rest of it, clean air and water, pretty parks, singing and coloring in schools, band aids on booboos, mommy stuff, - it's all icing.

[Blackhatjack]

19. Most polling does not accurately measure the critical group of independents/undecided & unaffiliated

That critical group can measure as high as 25%, and if they show up to vote they can often swing the election outcome.

Polling so far has done only a fair job of identifying this group and their preferences.

However, you can get an insight into this group when you view unfavorability ratings of the candidates. If you are a strategist trying to identify voting blocks, you would look at a candidate with high unfavorability numbers and try to identify what the issues are that create those numbers.

For example, Hillary leads most polls right now among Democrats, but her unfavorability numbers across the board are the highest of any candidate. To reach the level she is at some of those respondents have to come from this group since they exceed the number that would be registered by just Republicans.