Three reasons why the GOP's coalition is burning right to the ground.

[WilliamPitt]

1.

Supreme Court Ruling Brings Split in Antiabortion Movement
By Alan Cooperman
Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, June 4, 2007; Page A03

In a highly visible rift in the anti-abortion movement, a coalition of evangelical Protestant and Roman Catholic groups is attacking a longtime ally, Focus on the Family founder James C. Dobson. Using rhetoric that they have reserved in the past for abortion clinics, some of the coalition's leaders accuse Dobson and other national antiabortion leaders of building an "industry" around relentless fundraising and misleading information.

More: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/03/AR2007060301218.html?nav=hcmodule

2.

Backers of Immigration Bill More Optimistic
Lawmakers Cite Sense of Urgency
By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, June 4, 2007; Page A01

(snip)

For Republicans in the coalition, opposing such amendments will only increase the pressure they are facing at home. Over the break, Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) were booed at their state party conventions. And President Bush's attempt to give Republicans political cover by praising the deal may have backfired. Republican opponents in the House now call the proposal the "Kennedy-Bush Amnesty" bill. "I just know that we've got a tough week ahead of us," Kyl said.

More: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/03/AR2007060301455.html?hpid=topnews

3.

Ron Paul is blowing up real good

The rambunctious GOP candidate wants to drag the U.S. out of Iraq, can the war on drugs, and overturn the Patriot Act. No wonder Republican power brokers want to boot him off the stage.

By Michael Scherer
Salon.com

(snip)

We are sitting in the Speaker's Lobby at the U.S. Capitol, a fireplace-studded salon off the floor of the House of Representatives. I have come to find out why so many people care so deeply about Paul, who is to the Republican Party about what Cindy Sheehan has been to the Democrats, an outsider sounding the alarm in unconventional tones and demanding an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. For years, Paul had been the GOP's doddering old uncle, advocating strict small government principles too extreme for most of his colleagues. In the last few weeks, however, he has evidenced the first inklings of becoming something more -- the public face of a small but passionate Republican revolt against President Bush's foreign policy. Paul's dissent is public enough, and his views inconvenient enough, that some Republican power brokers have wondered aloud about ushering him off the public stage.

More: http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2007/06/02/ron_paul/index.html

=====

So...what do we have here?

The GOP coalition is basically a tripod: small-to-midsized business owners/professionals, mostly white, who don't like federal regulation or taxes; the captains of industry who own most of everything, write the checks, and basically run the show; and, of course, the evangelical single-issue-voter movement folks used as useless idiot shock troops by the party to divide and distract whatever national political discussion happens to discomfort the leadership.

That's a pretty simple sketch, but you get the idea. Regional permutations complicate the picture, but that's basically the deal.

There are all kinds of rationalizations/reasons why our government got taken over by truly frightening religious/economic radicals who are absolutely in the minority. Bush v. Gore, corporate media nonsense, shady voting machines, 9/11, fear, etc...but there's one reason that stands out above all.

In any presidential election nowadays, a 60% turnout is huge. Most midterms see half that. The movement radicals make up roughly 25% of the electorate that can be counted on to vote...and that 25% almost always votes GOP, and will show up en masse to do so. If it is raining live, killer jaguars from the sky on election day, that 25% will still go out and vote an anti-choice GOP slate across the board.

They are, in short, the most dependable voting bloc in the history of the galaxy...and because of that, any GOP presidential candidate who says the right things about fetuses and Jesus is halfway to victory before he/she gets out of bed on election morning. All those other reasons matter, but the shock troops make the crucial difference.

Go back up and read story #1 again. A rift within the ranks of that crew means serious trouble for the GOP if really gets out of hand. Thus, one leg of the tripod is not entirely stable.

#2, however, is the whopper, the bull-moose dead-bang guaranteed rift exploder for the GOP. Battallions of GOP politicians have made careers out of demagoguing on immigration...but were simultaneously accepting campaign checks from the big-money boys, who absolutely depend on having easy and unscrutinized access to a dirt-cheap pool of slave laborers they don't have to provide health insurance for.

The problem for the GOP politicians, of course, is that their constituents came to buy into the demagoguery about immigrantion, unleashing a seething anger within the GOP base, anger aimed at immigrants on the whole...and also aimed at any politician who stands for anything besides deporting the whole lot of them.

But there's those checks, right. The moneymen didn't spend all those ducats buying GOP politicians by the gross, and then have those owned politicos go and legislate their cheap labor pool back across the border. That's not how they say cricket. The base wants fences and draconian deportations, the moneymen want cheap labor and big profits...and the rest of us want California strawberries and Florida oranges every now and again.

There is no solution here for the GOP, which is a damned embarrassing shame, because this nonsense will wind up screwing the immigrant population the worst. If the GOP goes hardcore on legislation, their check-writers will be screwed and will abandon them for guys like Ted Kennedy. If they go the business-friendly route, the GOP base will detonate...and maybe stay home again on voting day. I do think, as an aside, that the pre-11/06 immigration mudfight had at least as much to do with the midterm wipeout as the war and the scandals. If this continues to fester, you've got two shaky legs.

#3 is just a theory of mine. It may be heretical to say on DU, but I do believe that Republicans are, in the main, good people whose policies and priorities I disagree with. I think a lot of GOP voters are quietly horrified by what has happened to their party. Ron Paul is never going to win any primaries, much less the Oval...but the very fact he is there at all, and getting editorially championed by the likes of Pat Buchanan besides, augers towards serious trouble at the core.

Ron Paul is the Republican for smart Republicans, the embarrassed ones who should have known better, the small-business GOPers who can actually win political debates without hurling invective and insults. That's the third leg.

The anti-choicers are fighting among themselves, the immigration issue is rock-hard-place writ large for those who railed against immigrants while cashing checks from the industries that rely on immigrants, and Ron Paul is making way too much sense for a guy with an (R) after his name.

I'm not predicting any kind of imminent immolation with this. But boy o boy, that tripod is looking awfully unsteady. That's the thing about tripods, of course...it only takes one leg to crap out, and the whole thing comes crashing down.

Thoughts?

[bryant69]

1. Didn't you quit?

That said Immigration probably outweighs the other too - the Immigration bill is lethal to the party if the Party elite stay behind it. What i suspect will happen is they will shove it off onto Bush, who they need to cut loose eventually anyway and use it as a way to separate the Base from the Bush.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[WilliamPitt]

2. Quit?

[bryant69]

13. DU. But I gather I was misinformed. n/t

[WilliamPitt]

18. Ah.

No, I took a day or two off during the Cindypalooza last week. No biggie.

[Raven]

3. This election is ours to lose, all ours. n/t

[WiseButAngrySara]

19. "ours to lose"?? Gee, thanks for offering such encouragement

to the already down and out discouraged. :wtf:

[WilliamPitt]

23. Two things.

1. Raven is my mom (seriously).

2. She meant that in the very best way, i.e. we have success within our reach.

:)

[WiseButAngrySara]

24. OMG! Thanks for the clarification. I know the name Raven, but

had no idea of the relationship. That is wonderful on BOTH counts! (I've been discouraged because of the war funding last week and once again caving into his royal highNASS B*, and I was too disgusted with Blitzer moderating the debates last night that I couldn't even watch)

I agree that we have success within our reach!

:hi: to the two of you. Raven, you must be so proud of Will!!!

[SpiralHawk]

4. Then there's the SHAME of following a deserter

and a war profiteer VP with Five (5) freaking military deferments

following them into a needless, lie-based and failed war yields damn little glory to the republicon soul

[tabasco]

7. That's the main reason from my observation.

I know a former republican whose last straw was Bush doing the "looking for WMD in the Oval office" skit for the Press Club.

Fraudulent reasons for war and thousands dead. Funnier than a barrel of monkeys!

But the corporate media prostitutes were rolling in the aisles!

[glitch]

25. Yeah, who knew zombies could laugh? nt

[hwmnbn]

5. I want to be there when the tripod breaks....

and Grand Old Party falls on its Grand Fat Ass.

I agree they are reaping the fruits of their warmongering and bogotry. I'll most enjoy when these religious right yahoos become politically impotent, or at least marginalized.

[sinkingfeeling]

6. Yes, but won't the MSM playing up any slight differences in the stance of Democrats as signs of

a 'split within the party' instead?

[Dhalgren]

8. I've wondered for years what had happened to the "Buick Republicans".

You know the ones; they own the local drugstore and sponsor softball teams, they always try to play trombone at the bandstand on the 4th of July and wind up laughing at themselves along with everyone else. They used to be who people thought of when you said "Republican". If Ron Paul represents these folks, what happens in early November in '08? Do the voters making up this leg of the tripod stay home or hold their noses and vote for the "R"? I can't tell anymore...

[yurbud]

32. at first I thought you said "black republicans" and I was going to say both of them quit

because they weren't being paid enough.

[Cirque du So-What]

9. From p m carpenter's blog:

p m carpenter's commentary
June 01, 2007

A short history of a long death

Peter Berkowitz, a Hoover Institution senior fellow, has written for the Wall Street Journal an ambitious and largely thoughtful lament on the sorry state of conservatism. "The American right," he says, with both regret and praise, is in a "cauldron of debate," whereas "the left," with its "ranks increasingly untroubled by debate or dissent," is not.

Putting aside the misguided tendency of both camps to see each other as monolithic in thought and unified in deed, and putting aside as well the left's very real and considerable infighting, Mr. Berkowitz has a point: The right is unraveling -- ideologically, organizationally and emotionally.

He states the right's current troubles with accuracy: "The divisions within contemporary American conservatism -- social conservatives, libertarians, and neoconservatives -- arise from differences over which goods most urgently need to be preserved, to what extent, and with what role for government."

What he doesn't say, however -- not explicitly, anyway -- is that the modern right is an elaborate, dizzying concoction pasted together as late as the 1950s and early 60s. It was an uneasy alliance then -- the social traditionalists, economic libertarians and hyperglandular anticommunists (yesterday's neoconservatives) -- and it's a mess of conflict now.

The unraveling was bound to happen. So what surprises is not that it's happening; what surprises is that it took so long.

more...

http://pmcarpenter.blogs.com/p_m_carpenters_commentary/2007/06/a_short_history.html

I'd like to have greater confidence in p m carpenter's assessment of the RW's state of disarray, but I've seen a willingness among their disparate factions to overlook ideological incompatibility in favor of unity. On the other hand, the current row over immigration reform reveals cracks in the façade that I never dreamed possible even a few months ago.

This assessment follows lines similar to yours, Will. I'd like to rejoice, but I don't want any jubilation to be premature.

[WilliamPitt]

10. I'm not jubilant

and I got out of the hope game a while back. But the writing on the walls is getting clearer by the day.

[Carni]

11. Let me tell you how DESPERATE they are...

Yesterday at the grocery store...some moron in very GOP looking blazer and dress clothing was walking up to random people with a newspaper to ask "Hey did you here about the terror attack the FBI thwarted at JFK" and then would expound on how great bushco is at handling everything.

I am not kidding...I was at the store with my husband and 11 year old daughter, we had just cashed out and I was starting to walk the cart out of the store when here comes this GOP dweeb looking type approaching me with a newspaper.

I thought he was going to ask for directions--but no, he says "hey did you see the news--*they* thwarted a big terrorist attack at JFK, thousands would have been killed" and pointed at his paper.

I was totally taken off guard but managed to say "Yeah I heard that this morning and IF it's true
I am certainly glad to hear that this idiot administration did SOMETHING right, because they certainly haven't handled anything else properly" so then the guy waves his paper at me and says
"Oh no you're wrong they've stopped a lot of terror attacks and saved a lot of people"

At that point, I put up my hand in a talk to the hand type fashion shook my head and just kept walking--he then proceeded to start dogging my husband with the same BS.

My husband politiely dismissed him, because he thought he was just some crazy looking for attention.
I told my husband no, that's some grass roots idiot with a plan to make bush look better they do this kind of thing all the time...my husband didn't believe me of course until he went back into tyhe store to buy ice and watched the same guy pulling the same thing on others.

I wonder if this idiotic attempt at good PR took place anywhere else in the country yesterday?

They are pathetic and will self destruct IMO

[BonnieJW]

15. Reminds me

of the Moonies when they sold flowers at the airports.

[femrap]

17. I wouldn't be surprised if the local Repugnant

Party has a 'misc. cash acct.' that hires these fools to get out the 'word.'

I read a while back about research done that people aren't listening to the 'talking heads' as much and it's Word-of-Mouth that is the thing people put credence into....I'm sure Rove read the same research.

I thought it better to stand in a grocery line talking on one's cell phone about the catastrophe of the bush regime....and what can be done about it. People listen to that!

[madrchsod]

12. i do agree with your the third theory

i`m old enough to realize that a person maybe a republican and have principals. i may not agree with them but i can respect them.i can remember having discussions with republicans that when it was over we still respected each others views..
since 200 the republican party has spiraled into what we see today ,a rotting corpse that even vicks can`t kill the smell. no, ron paul won`t save them from their folly but he may bury the corpse for them...

[radfringe]

14. you only had to watch the 1st republic debate

to know that bush is a major problem. the republics were falling all over themselves trying to look like reagan as opposed to wildly grabbing at bush's coattails

it will be interesting to see how many of the republics will be asking bush for help with their campaigns (this includes senators/representatives and the eventual presidential republic nominee) ....do I hear crickets?

[tmlanders]

16. Republicans are sad...

I was sitting next to my Repub brother-in-law at Easter brunch. I couldn't help myself -- I asked him if he still supported Bush. He looked very sad and said, No, he doesn't support him any more. He has a kind of broken-heart look, so I changed the subject before he started to cry.

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

For the Repubs to lose my BIL they are in deep shit.

[formercia]

20. leveling the playing field

now both parties are in disarray.

[WiseButAngrySara]

21. Excellent post Pitt. I would like to think that the Iraq war and

Ron Paul's current role in this will be the first leg to go. I have recently been studying the 9/11 'conspiracy' theories, and the collapse of the WTC #7 in particular, and I can't tell you how often I've seen "Ron Paul for 2008" as a response on YouTube comments.

I'm bookmarking this one. Very good and clear explanation and analogy of the wobbly tripod!

;kick: and R!

[Demeter]

22. In Summary: The Sheep Are Sick of Being Sheared

The small businessman? Out of business, thanks to Bush economic policies.

The Fundies? Beginning to see that their delusion is not shared.

The Corporations? Moving out of the hollow shell of a once proud and prosperous nation, to go feed on something with more real cash.

The DLC, only 30 years behind the times, is still trying to emulate Gingrich--without the intellectual underpinnings.

The times, they are a changing.

[Blackhatjack]

26. The changes in the Repub Party between now and the General Election Will Be Dramatic...

Repubs can read polling results and understand what they mean.
38% of Repubs approve of their choices for Party Nomineee now running.
70% of the public are against the war in Iraq.

THe closer we get to the General Election, the greater the change will have to be.

At some point in in time, there will have to be outright repudiation of Bush and this war. Conservative fundamentalist kowtowing will have to be sacrificed to reach voters who will actually show up and vote in the General Election. (I disagree with Will, I think RW Religious Conservatives will be so disillusioned they will stay at home and not vote in large numbers).

THis will open the door to Hagel as the only candidate with a chance to appeal to the independents, undecideds and unaffiliated voters.

To embrace Hagel there will have to be a huge sea change inside the Republican Party, and present power brokers will have to be kicked out. Will it happen? WHo knows.

But one thing is for sure, Republicans would sell their own mothers to stay in power.

[AspenRose]

27. You're right about Ron Paul

"Ron Paul is the Republican for smart Republicans, the embarrassed ones who should have known better, the small-business GOPers who can actually win political debates without hurling invective and insults. That's the third leg."

My husband is a republican and he's practically clinging to the hope of Ron Paul for dear life to save (or reclaim) the GOP.

And I can tell you that the fundie Christian republicans aren't enamored of Giuliani, Romney or McCain. I've heard that sentiment being broadcast on christian radio. So they're probably giving Paul a good, hard look.

[WilliamPitt]

28. "...the fundie Christian republicans..."

...are waiting for Newt to jump in, and lacking that, they have Brownback.

[Blackhatjack]

30. Newt and Hot Tub Tom could run and the fundies still won't turn out for them...

There is a splintering of the fundamentalist voting block when it comes to adultry, serial marriage, etc.

Falwell is gone. Dobson will have a hard time turning out the vote for Newt as the Nominee --just imagine the ads ('while speaking on the floor of the House that Clinton must be impeached for engaging in an extra-marital affair, while at the same time he was engaged in an extra-marital affair). Or another example, ('while his wife was in the hospital receiving cancer treatment, Newt served her with divorce papers, and eventually married a younger member of his staff).

Those would register with fundamentalists alright.

IMHO Brownback would be acceptable to RW Fundamentalists except they hate to back a candidate they know cannot win. It is winning that gives them power.

[NashVegas]

29. And Still, I'm Not Totally Rejoicing

A great deal of what this is all about is disillusionment.

Anti-abortion Believers who are finding out they've been used for political expediency will still be ready to vote for whomever they next place their faith in.

Anti-immigration Believers are finding they've lost ground, from one person = one vote to one dollar = one vote, and the people doing the hiring of illegal immigrants have more dollars to go around. Yet I doubt this reality will change how they feel about immigrants.

I'm thankful Ron Paul is getting prime podium time; in the short term, he may be the best wedge of all, for he is giving voice to those things good Republicans have not dared to anywhere outside of the kitchen. He may be one who, on the Iraq issue, at least, actually change some minds.

Republicans aren't voting for anything most Dems or perceived Liberals would champion, no, they are voting against us, they see us as the adversary. But when Ron Paul gets on national TV and lays out some facts, they don't have to side with us, they can side with Ron, safely.

[yurbud]

31. After reading that, I nominate Ron Paul for Drug Czar

[diane in sf]

33. Will--typo...

I think you mean the loony shock troops are "useful" not useless idiots.

[OKDem08]

34. In spite of the mayhem & disorder they have wrought

I suspect the Candidate Hillary would rally the faithful. Nothing consolidates like a common foe.