THE MATH Update (GE Edition) - Comparisons to Poblano and EVcom

[phrigndumass]

This is the beginning of my tracking for projected electoral votes and projected winner, as compared to the Poblano Model (FiveThirtyEight.com) and the latest polls shown on Electoral-Vote.com. My own projections address poll bias and factor in probabilities and maximum-potentials.

Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 272
McCain – 266
Needed to Win – 270

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,926,827 (45.7%)
McCain – 55,822,826 (44.1%)
Undecided/Other – 12,971,346 (10.2%)

Strength of Projection – 35.5%

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Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com (Poblano Model)
Electoral-Vote.com (Latest Polls)


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[KSinTX]

1. Which of these is yours? nt

[phrigndumass]

2. The Green lines, marked Phrig

:D

[KSinTX]

3. Duh on me!

Thanks, it was hidden in plain sight. I've always been a Poblano fan (one of only three diaries I have bookmarked) and have found him spot on during the primaries. I think it was you who posted that his methodology doesn't quite work in the GE so I'll be staying in tune with you both to see which one gets it right :)

[phrigndumass]

4. I'm in awe of his work! It wasn't me who commented on his methodology

Must have been someone else. I didn't find out about his work until a few days ago.

But from what I've seen, I think Poblano and I are in the same ballpark, although I try to use a more simplistic model. It may not be as scientifically accurate as his, but time will tell.

Thanks KS!

[KSinTX]

5. Hissyspit had an interesting write-up on Poblano

thought you might want to check it out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6005407

Cheers!