From an archived thread:
German media: U.S. preparing Iran strike
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=2013189happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Dec-30-05 09:57 PM
Response to Original message
33. In Invasion of Iran is a NIGHTMARE
Not the the US can NOT defeat Iran, we can be in Tehran within two weeks, but like Iraq that is when the fun begins. You will need the Draft just to replace the people being killed in BOTH Iran and Iraq (and whenever we invade Iran, the Shiites in Iraq will revolt, forcing the US to send Troops to help the British.
Now, Bush can not afford a draft, his support will fizzle as will the Support for the GOP. Basically the Draft is the Kiss of Death, thus I doubt the US will invade Iran. The costs are to high domestically. I believe the Pentagon brass has convinced Bush and Company that unless Bush figures out a way to get more people to enlist an attack on Iran can not occur, the alternative, a Draft, is politically unacceptable so no invasion will occur. The US just do NOT have the Ground forces to hold Iraq and invade and hold Iran at the same time. There are ways to use present troops levels to do both, but then you have no troops to rotate back home for training and the troops become more occupying police than an Army and as such become more and more useless as an army as times goes on (the best example of this was the Army Of The Republic of Vietnam,the ARVN, the ARVN had been nothing but an occupying police force since its inception, no real training done in maneuver, just patrols to look for Viet Cong, as such it was incapable of doing maneuver warfare when in 1974 when North Vietnam invaded). Such permanent "policing" armies do NOT really convert to a proper army (thus why the ARVN failed to stop the North Vietnamese Army in 1974). Such an Army get so tied up in policing that its ability to fight quickly disappears (and to avoid this is one of the reason the US has been rotating Units from Iraq back to the States).
Now, the report uses the term "Attack" and that can include an Air Attack on Iran without the use of ground forces. The US has the Air Force to do such an Attack, it will NOT be as easy as Iraq but losses on the US Side will be minimal. This is even a worse nightmare. Iran controls the whole Northern Coast of the Persian Gulf. Without ground forces to deny Iran access to that Coast, Iran can put its anti-Ship Missiles anywhere along that coast AND PROHIBIT ANY OIL FROM COMING FROM KUWAIT, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Rest of the Gulf Coast states. Furthermore Iran has missiles that can reach the Arabian main export port and thus capable of Destroying that port's ability to export oil. Iran also has support in that part of Arabia so it is possible for a terrorist attack on those and other oil facilities could be done. Sooner or later Iran, if attacked, will force the US to break off the Air Attack so that Iran will stops its attacks OR invade Iran and you get the real problem mentioned above in invading Iran.
I can see up to 50% of world wide oil production just stop within a week of such an attack. Such a Shortage will force the US into a Recession AND force the Pentagon to tell the President that he has to adopt some plan to end the Iranian attacks (i.e. stop the air attacks OR invade). Thus you back to the problem of Invading Iran OR quiting the Air Attacks. Bush will NOT want to appear "weak" so he will invade, the Invasion will succeed like it did in Iraq, but then you have an increase in unrest in Iraq (Mostly in the now quiet Shiite Section of Iraq) and guerrillas attacks on the American Forces in Iran. Bush will have to bring back the Draft just to replace the men (and women) being lost in these attacks. That will lead to domestic unrest as young people refuse to get drafted. You may even have riots (AND THAT MAY BE WHAT BUSH WANTS, RIOTS TO JUSTIFY MARTIAL LAW for the riots are hurting the troops and part of the same "terrorist agenda to destroy American").
I dread the above Nightmare, but maybe it is what Bush and Cheney wants,for it can lead to a dictatorship. Remember Bush's debacle on Social Security, Bush still wants to kill Social Security so maybe Bush believes the only way to kill Social Security is in a Dictatorship. Thus with an Invasion of Iran, he gets the Draft, he gets Riots, he uses the Riots to abolish Civil Liberties, he than passes by Decree to make his tax cut to the Rich and Abolish Social Security.
I just can not make myself to believe Bush is so devilish, the above may just be Bush Blundering (i.e. he wants to invade Iran and cares less of the Consequences, and when the Consequences are pointed out to him, he sees them as opportunities to further what he wants to do instead of the disaster they will be). I lean to Bush NOT thinking through the consequences of his actions, as oppose to it being an intentional plot, but the results will be the same, disaster in the US, in the World and In the Middle East. I also believe the Pentagon professional Staff are leaking this out so that people will Stop Bush, but Bush's propaganda machine is so good it is just NOT getting to the Majority of People (when it does the GOP as a whole backs off, thus saving the GOP from Bush's follies for now). The problem I see is in a Dictatorship this check will disappear and with it the GOP. I can see riots and even revolution as people say they want their Social Security (Remember young people, if SS is abolished who is going to take care of your aged parents and grandparents, are you going to leave them die in the streets? The answer to that is no, thus once SS is abolished you will see blood in the Streets, which is something the GOP wants to avoid but Bush seems not to care about one way or another.
Sorry about this rant, but the complications of what Bush is doing is to big to be said is a few words, the complexities are so great you have to view them all together to see what a disaster he is leading this nation into.
robertpaulsen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Mon Jan-02-06 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #33
130. One more equation to throw into your great analysis: Syria.
If we conduct air strikes on Iran, either through proxy (Israel) or going it alone, here is another aspect of the retaliation we will face:
Joint Iran/Syria defense pact (If one country is attacked, the other will come to their aid militarily)
Iran and Syria Confront US With Defense Pact
by Ewen MacAskill in Beirut and Duncan Campbell
Iran and Syria heightened tension across the Middle East and directly confronted the Bush administration yesterday by declaring they had formed a mutual self-defense pact to confront the "threats" now facing them.
The move, which took the Foreign Office by surprise, was announced after a meeting in Tehran between the Iranian vice-president, Mohammed Reza Aref, and the Syrian prime minister, Naji al-Otari.
"At this sensitive point, the two countries require a united front due to numerous challenges," said Mr Otari.
more...
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0217-02.htmIRAN, SYRIA ENTER MUTUAL DEFENSE PACT
Same story, but with this scary * quote:
Addressing the question of a potential nuclear Iran at a news conference on Thursday, Bush shied away from ruling out an Israeli offensive strike.
"If I was the leader of Israel and I listened to some of the statements by the Iranian ayatollahs about... the security of my country, I'd be concerned about Iran having a nuclear weapon as well... And, in that Israel is our ally, in that we've made a very strong commitment to support Israel, we will support Israel if their security is threatened."
more...
http://www.icej.org/cgi-local/view.cgi?type=headline&ar...That's what I see happening. We (U.S. & Israel) conduct air strikes, Syria and Iran retaliate. This occurs before October 2006, * then goes to Congress saying he HAS to get their authorization for a ground invasion, after all, they're already attacking us, are we just going to CUT and RUN? He'll put Congress in the same election year bind they were in back in 2002.