Democrat is front runner in scramble to fill Cunningham's seat.

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Pie chart of recent poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=40f955c2-605d-4fad-be76-5b450e3f08c7&q=26005

Article:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/03/27/MNG9DHUKF41.DTL

[Tiggeroshii]

1. That's just cause it's split up between all the Repugs

After the primaries there'll be a runoff and she'll lose(most likely). However if some other Repug is ass sore for losing he can still probably run as a third candidate or something.

[tritsofme]

2. I thought CA had a no sore loser law.

Where a primary candidate can't run in the GE on a third party ticket?

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Yeah probably

I don't know how runoffs work either. But I think it's probably safe to say that Busby will probably be facing only 1 candidate in the special election and that it would be more accurate for surveyusa to pol her against each single candidate rather than all of them combined.

[Greeby]

3. If Busby gets 50%, she wins

:bounce:

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Those republicans are going to face off in the primary

...meaning only one will face her. But of course, I don't know how the runoffs are structured.

[BrotherBuzz]

11. This is a special election

Under the rules, a candidate who gets "50 percent plus one" of the vote wins the seat outright and serves the balance of Cunningham's term, which expires in November. If no candidate reaches that mark, the top vote-getters of each party will compete in a June 6 runoff.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Think she can get it?

That would be excellent!

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8. If she gets 50% plus 1 vote she wins, otherwise the top 2 run again in Nov

[BrotherBuzz]

12. The term ends in Nov - the runoff would be in June

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16. oops sorry, my bad. I don't live in that district

[padia]

4. +/- 5% makes it invalid

unless all my stat prof's were wrong. plus I was hearing that ifshe does not get 50%+1 then it goes into a runoff & that will be when the repugs will pull together so the time is now to get her to win.

[FARAFIELD]

7. This is sadly

Much ado about nothing. This is my home district although i live in North Carolina now, there is about as much chance of francine winning this district as you finding a three legged ballerina. These people are tighter than tom thumbs ass, ALTHOUGH i must say her showing is pretty strong, her only chance is in the General where a fractured Republcan field might be complacent while all us dems show up to vote. One it goes to a run off its repuke vs us and most people will just vote repuke.

[jaysunb]

9. Sh*t Happens

all the time.......

[aquart]

13. Yeah, but my sister lives there now.

Things ain't what they used to be.

[KBlagburn]

10. This is the general election

This is a special election. There is no primary, there is no G.E.. If she gets over 50% on April 11, she is sworn into congress. She takes the seat immediatley. Therefore she stands a very good chance. If she fails to get over 50%, then the top two go into a runoff. That is when the repubs will have a chance to unite.

[xxqqqzme]

14. I met her @ a rally

The people of this district would be so lucky 2 get her - She looks like she belongs in the Senate.