The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived 'Peak Oil'

[Earth_First]

In Brief: "Try to image an airplane suddenly losing its engines. It was really a crash"... A crash that put Cuba into a state of shock. There were frequent blackouts in its oil-fed electric power grid, up to 16 hours per day. The average daily caloric intake in Cuba dropped by a third... So Cubans started to grow local organic produce out of necessity, developed bio-pesticides and bio-fertilizers as petrochemical substitutes, and incorporated more fruits and vegetables into their diets. Since they couldn't fuel their aging cars, they walked, biked, rode buses, and carpooled



Farmers at the Organiponico de Alamar, a neighborhood agriculture project in downtown Havana, weed the beds. (Photo by John Morgan)

[Poppyseedman]

1. Not to be obtuse, but

try to imagine a free Cuba.

[BlueEyedSon]

3. So arguably, a totalitarian state may be the only way to survive Peak Oil.

Cheerful idea.

[Poppyseedman]

5. If you believe in the concept of "Peak Oil"

which I don't. You might have a point.

[BlueEyedSon]

7. Which part don't you "believe" in? Gravity works even if you don't believe

in it, BTW.

[Poppyseedman]

13. Gravity is a fact. Throw any object up and it will down down.

Peak Oil is not a fact. Bear in mind, I didn't say we would not have oil issues. Any rational person can understand oil is a commodity. The fact that it is a commodity means we will never run out of it. Americans will wean themselves off petro when the price of petro makes alternative energy sources more viable like E-85

[Strelnikov_]

18. So You Are Saying That Biofuels Will Allow Continued Exponential Growth?

So you are saying that substitution of the proven, scalable, alternate energy sources, which have EROEI's of 1 to 4 (at best), will replace the fossil fuel bounty (having EROEI's >20) without restructuring of our infrastructure and economic models?

[Earth_First]

19. There will NEVER again be a viable fuel-based consumer society

The EROI factor is just too great when focus could (should) be made in other areas of alternative development.

[Poppyseedman]

23. No, I am not saying that. We will not just wake up one day and

find we need to start restructuring of our infrastructure and economic models overnight.

There are still oil fields yet to be found. There are oil fields that still have product that can be pulled out with newly developed methods. The cost of pulling some oil out of the ground was prohibitive, but due to technology and price increases it is or will be viable to do so.

As you say, proven, scalable, alternate energy sources are being developed and we will move forward. We are a country of innovators, people who make things happen.

Doom and gloom is not our future.

[Strelnikov_]

27. Then Peak Oil Is A Fact?

Then our economic system, capitalism, will survive years of stagnant or negative growth, when simply two-quarters of contraction currently results in recession?

The following report, initiated by your Presidents Energy Department, punches a few holes in your arguments.

Also, you may like this site:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

It is put together by people like you who conflate peak oil, of which there is no question, with the scenarios for a post peak world, and who always seem to choose the rosy scenario, sort of like the 'Greening Earth' crowd.

Because of the lead times required to transform the energy and transport infrastructure once the ‘market’ signals a problem, through high prices/shortages, massive economic distress is now unavoidable, as concluded in the following report.

Realistic efficiency standards and development of alternative energy sources should have begun long ago. Instead, people chose Reagan's empty promises.

This is different from the 70‘s in that supply will never rebound. The 70’s were short term shocks, efficiency and additional production eventually led to lower prices. This promises to be slow strangulation, concluding with a massive shock that will bring our economic system to it’s knees. With supply chronically outstripping supply, we are one Gulf of Mexico hurricane or one revolution away.


Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.
Hirsch, Bezdek, Wendling, February 2005

www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf (.pdf warning)

. . .

Because conventional oil production decline will start at the time of peaking, crash program mitigation inherently cannot avert massive shortages unless it is initiated well in advance of peaking.

Specifically,
* Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.
* Initiating a crash program 10 years before world oil peaking would help considerably but would still result in a worldwide liquid fuels shortfall, starting roughly a decade after the time that oil would have otherwise peaked.
* Initiating crash program mitigation 20 years before peaking offers the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.

[BlueEyedSon]

31. Whoa! nt

[BlueEyedSon]

20. Then you don't understand the meaning of the phrase "Peak Oil"

Peak Oil, simply stated, is that there will be a year when fossil oil production is higher than all previous years and all subsequent years. It is not mysterious that production can and has increased over time (by drilling new wells and/or using novel extraction technologies). As fewer new fields are discovered and existing fields become depleted, there will be a year that production will start decreasing... permanently. This is a chart of US oil production, which peaked around 1970.



Now apply the principle to the entire world's oil production. We will peak this decade.

[AndyTiedye]

29. Don't See Anything in This Article That Requires a Totalitarian State

Most of this seems to be happening at a very local level,
and at that level it doesn't even seem to be particularly Communist.

[ret5hd]

8. you mean free of a multi-decade economic embargo?

or free of a multi-decade program of terrorism and assasination directed by the u.s. and the exile community?

[Poppyseedman]

11. Yes, exactly

A free and open democratic society.

[Nay]

37. You tell 'em, ret. People here are going to wish they were Cuban

by the time Bush/Peak oil gets finished with us. So let's stop acting like Cubans live in a gray prison.

[JackRiddler]

So foolish...

Life in Cuba the last 45 years has been a lot better than life in the US-backed monster regimes of El Salvador or Guatemala, or Nicaragua before 1978, or Venezuela as it would have been if the CIA coup of April 2002 had not been defeated by the people.

But that's not the point.

This is a great documentary. I saw an early version. Cuba has shown how to handle the loss of petroleum (which is what happened after 1989 and the loss of Soviet subsidies) and how to convert to a decentralized, organic mode of farming that now feeds people just as well and has developed cutting edge low-intensity technologies. This sector is a miracle and well worth studying for the whole world, independently of whether the oil is going to run out (as assuredly it will fairly soon in historical terms).

[JackRiddler]

30. So foolish...

Life in Cuba the last 45 years has been a lot better than life in the US-backed monster regimes of El Salvador or Guatemala, or Nicaragua before 1978, or Venezuela as it would have been if the CIA coup of April 2002 had not been defeated by the people.

But that's not the point.

This is a great documentary. I saw an early version. Cuba has shown how to handle the loss of petroleum (which is what happened after 1989 and the loss of Soviet subsidies) and how to convert to a decentralized, organic mode of farming that now feeds people just as well and has developed cutting edge low-intensity technologies. This sector is a miracle and well worth studying for the whole world, independently of whether the oil is going to run out (as assuredly it will fairly soon in historical terms).

[BlueEyedSon]

2. What's their per capita or per family income? How would Americans

adjust to that?

[Earth_First]

6. Not well...

United States: $37,800
.
.
.
Cuba: $2,800

[ret5hd]

9. well, don't forget, 98% of cubans own their home outright...

have free access to a worldclass healthcare system
have free access to a worldclass higher education system

and (facetiously, i grant you) have access to a worldclass cigar.

it might help alleviate the lack of consumer income just a bit.

[Poppyseedman]

15. You are buying into propaganda if you think all Cubans have

access to world class health care. Yes, they have access to health care and it's free, but it's not world class, not even close.

In this country people also have access to health care. Any public hospital cannot deny you service.

[BlueEyedSon]

21. They have the same infant mortality rate as the US, FYI

[Poppyseedman]

24. That doesn't suprise me.

[JanMichael]

28. It's lower than the US.

Plus ours is rising...

[BlueEyedSon]

32. in 2002 or something ours was higher, i think the latest figures are equal

[JanMichael]

33. The latest figures? All I can go by are the reports available.

There is nothing to suggest a change.

Hell even the 2005 CIA rankings have Cuba slightly ahead.

And a November 2005 report on ABC has the US rate rising.

How are the "latest" rates equal when there really aren't any latest rates?

[BlueEyedSon]

34. You win, last time I tried to show the data to someone, they were equal

I thought i had used the CIA world factbook, BUT i may have used a secondary source that rounded to by truncation.

And by "latest" i meant 2004 or 2005

[JanMichael]

35. They are actually quite close I imagine be it 2002-2005.

And the fact is that 2005 numbers are all in the draft stages anyway as it just ended. So rounding isn't that big a deal.

What is a big deal are the US rates by ethnicity. That's where it get really ugly.

[ret5hd]

39. well, i guess it depends on whether you call 33rd out of 191 "world class"

i think i would. (that stat based on life expectancy).

and also, a health care system that is:
1) for everyone based on preventive care
and
2) a healthcare system for the poor based on emergency room visits, and a very different healthcare system for the rich based on acute(heart attack, stroke, diabetes, etc) and end-of-life care

is of course going to look VERY different. Yet, your logic seems to insist that preventing an ear infection is substandard to treating an ear infection. Sorry, I don't buy it for a second.


BTW, here's where i got that 33rd of 191 (notice the U.S. ranking below socialist "old europe" hahaha):

Disability-adjusted Life Expectancy
Source: World Health Report 2000 (Table 5)

24 Countries with DALE over 70
(24 non-African)

1 Japan 74.5
2 Australia 73.2
3 France 73.1
4 Sweden 73.0
5 Spain 72.8
6 Italy 72.7
7 Greece 72.5
8 Switzerland 72.5
9 Monaco 72.4
10 Andorra 72.3
11 San Marino 72.3
12 Canada 72.0
13 Netherlands 72.0
14 United Kingdom 71.7
15 Norway 71.7
16 Belgium 71.6
17 Austria 71.6
18 Luxembourg 71.1
19 Iceland 70.8
20 Finland 70.5
21 Malta 70.5
22 Germany 70.4
23 Israel 70.4
24 United States 70.0
78 Countries with DALE from 60 to 70
(3 African; 75 non-African)

25 Cyprus 69.8
26 Dominica 69.8
27 Ireland 69.6
28 Denmark 69.4
29 Portugal 69.3
30 Singapore 69.3
31 New Zealand 69.2
32 Chile 68.6
33 Cuba 68.4
34 Slovenia 68.4
35 Czech Republic 68.0
36 Jamaica 67.3
37 Uruguay 67.0
38 Croatia 67.0
39 Argentina 66.7
40 Costa Rica 66.7
41 Armenia 66.7
42 Slovakia 66.6
43 Saint Vincent 66.4
44 Georgia 66.3
45 Poland 66.2
46 Yugoslavia 66.1
47 Panama 66.0
48 Antigua & Barbuda 65.8
49 Grenada 65.5
50 United Arab Emirates 65.4
51 Republic of Korea 65.0
52 Venezuela 65.0
53 Barbados 65.0
54 Saint Lucia 65.0
55 Mexico 65.0
56 Bosnia 64.9
57 Trinidad and Tobago 64.6
58 Saudi Arabia 64.5
59 Brunei Darussalam 64.4
60 Bulgaria 64.4
61 Bahrain 64.4
62 Hungary 64.1
63 Lithuania 64.1
64 Macedonia 63.7
65 Azerbaijan 63.7
66 Qatar 63.5
67 Cook Islands 63.4
68 Kuwait 63.2
69 Estonia 63.1
70 Ukraine 63.0
71 Paraguay 63.0
72 Oman 63.0
73 Turkey 62.9
74 Colombia 62.9
75 Tonga 62.9
76 Sri Lanka 62.8
77 Suriname 62.7
78 Mauritius 62.7
79 Dominican Republic 62.5
80 Romania 62.3
81 China 62.3
82 Latvia 62.2
83 Belarus 61.7
84 Algeria 61.6
85 Niue 61.6
86 Saint Kitts & Nevis 61.6
87 El Salvador 61.5
88 Moldova 61.5
89 Malaysia 61.4
90 Tunisia 61.4
91 Russian Federation 61.3
92 Honduras 61.1
93 Ecuador 61.0
94 Belize 60.9
95 Lebanon 60.6
96 Iran 60.5
97 Samoa 60.5
98 Guyana 60.2
99 Thailand 60.2
100 Uzbekistan 60.2
101 Jordan 60.0
102 Albania 60.0
37 Countries with DALE from 50 to 60
(6 African; 31 non-African)

103 Indonesia 59.7
104 Micronesia 59.6
105 Peru 59.4
106 Fiji 59.4
107 Libyan Arab Jama. 59.3
108 Seychelles 59.3
109 Bahamas 59.1
110 Morocco 59.1
111 Brazil 59.1
112 Palau 59.0
113 Philippines 58.9
114 Syrian Arab Rep. 58.8
115 Egypt 58.5
116 Viet Nam 58.2
117 Nicaragua 58.1
118 Cape Verde 57.6
119 Tuvalu 57.4
120 Tajikistan 57.3
121 Marshall Islands 56.8
122 Kazakhstan 56.4
123 Kyrgyzstan 56.3
124 Pakistan 55.9
125 Kiribati 55.3
126 Iraq 55.3
127 Solomon Islands 54.9
128 Turkmenistan 54.3
129 Guatemala 54.3
130 Maldives 53.9
131 Mongolia 53.8
132 Sao Tome & Principe 53.5
133 Bolivia 53.3
134 India 53.2
135 Vanuatu 52.8
136 Nauru 52.5
137 Democratic PR Korea 52.3
138 Bhutan 51.8
139 Myanmar 51.6
20 Countries with DALE from 40 to 50
(13 African: 7 non-African)

140 Bangladesh 49.9
141 Yemen 49.7
142 Nepal 49.5
143 Gambia 48.3
144 Gabon 47.8
145 Papua New Guinea 47.0
146 Comoros 46.8
147 Lao People's DR 46.1
148 Cambodia 45.7
149 Ghana 45.5
150 Congo 45.1
151 Senegal 44.6
152 Equatorial Guinea 44.1
153 Haiti 43.8
154 Sudan 43.0
155 C“te d'Ivoire 42.8
156 Cameroon 42.2
157 Benin 42.2
158 Mauritania 41.4
159 Togo 40.7
29 Countries with DALE from 30 to 40
(28 African; 1 non-African)

160 South Africa 39.8
161 Chad 39.4
162 Kenya 39.3
163 Nigeria 38.3
164 Swaziland 38.1
165 Angola 38.0
166 Djibouti 37.9
167 Guinea 37.8
168 Afghanistan 37.7
169 Eritrea 37.7
170 Guinea-Bissau 37.2
171 Lesotho 36.9
172 Madagascar 36.6
173 Somalia 36.4
174 Dem. Rep. Congo 36.3
175 Central African R. 36.0
176 Tanzania 36.0
177 Namibia 35.6
178 Burkina Faso 35.5
179 Burundi 34.6
180 Mozambique 34.4
181 Liberia 34.0
182 Ethiopia 33.5
183 Mali 33.1
184 Zimbabwe 32.9
185 Rwanda 32.8
186 Uganda 32.7
187 Botswana 32.3
188 Zambia 30.3
3 Countries with DALE under 30
(3 African)

189 Malawi 29.4
190 Niger 29.1
191 Sierra Leone 25.9

[Deja Q]

16. What's Cuba's cost of living?

In the US it's something close to $25000 once heat, water, electricity, transport, housing, food, et cetera, are covered.

[AndyTiedye]

25. $2800 Wouldn't Even Pay for Health Insurance Here

I don't think those figures are really comparable.

[Strelnikov_]

12. My Read On The Coming Storm

Is that they will have no choice but to adjust.

[Greyhound]

36. The income per statistic is irrelevant as it is calculated. It is simply

a method used to keep the sheep convinced that, as bad as it is, it's worse in other places. I believe the tired cliche of comparing apples to oranges applies here. Though they may not have an equivalent income, as mentioned elsewhere, all of their basic needs are ensured. There is no homelessness, there is no starvation, they have a much higher literacy rate than we do and their infant mortality is lower. In short, the only Cubans that are still pissed are the plunderers that we propped up.

[slor]

4. When I go to California...

I plan to go to Santa Rosa Junior College, to take sustainable agriculture classes. I hope to promote this kind of thing and dream of mobilizing communities to do this, though my guess is that many in California are already ahead of the curve in this arwa.

[FrannyD]

10. Harper's magazine

had a very good article about this. Very interesting reading. Here's link:
http://www.harpers.org/TheCubaDiet.html

[malaise]

26. Very interesting -thanks n/t

[ArmchairActivist]

38. Glad you posted this link...

...it was the first thing I thought of when I saw this thread.

It's a nice article, and very apropos to the orginial theme of this thread. And quite possibly a glimpse into the future ala Kunstler's 'The Long Emergency'. Hint: It might not be so bad, and in some ways could be much, much better.

Oh, and the article isn't some sort of stock in trade, 'Cuba noble and proud, U.S. arrogant and greedy' piece either. It's more along the lines of 'Poor, hungry, isolated people figure out how to feed themselves.'

-AA

[Strelnikov_]

14. Couple Of Addl. Articles That Provides Some 'Food' For Thought

Can Organic Farming "Feed the World"?
http://www.energybulletin.net/1469.html

Small Is Bountiful
http://www.mindfully.org/Farm/Small-Farm-Benefits-Rosset.htm#F1

My opinion, at this time, is that the Peak Oil impact on food production is overstated, if we make adjustments. Petroleum/natural gas shortages will make the current factory farm dynamic untenable, and if we continue to force this model, it could bring on disaster.

The model presented in the articles is back to the smaller, more intensively managed farms of the past. As the articles note, this type of farming yields more net food per acre. The downside of this model is increased labor, and lower production rates of a single crop relative to modern factory farms.

The concepts presented are consistent with conversations I have had with older farmers, and my experience on the farm decades ago.

My conclusion at this time, we can probably feed ourselves (with leadership, for another discussion), but countries counting on our exports will be hurting, and we had better start thinking about population controls.

We are going to need some sort of a government program to re-establish the quarter-section midwestern farm, if there is to be stability in the food supply system. I just don't see the current large farms, being managed by tenant labor, as being tenable. The future will require the sort of land stewardship that can only come from ownership.

[Deja Q]

17. Okay, so all I need to is find a plot of land and a chick:

While the riches live in luxury, we toil in the fields all day with no freedoms and our only entertainment is our chicks.

Fair enough.

Beta the shit out of sitting at a computer all day slowly rotting.

[BlueEyedSon]

22. Whoa! you mean I have to CHOOSE between my computer and my chick???