In 2000, it was Florida. In 2004, it was Ohio. But in 2008? TEXAS.

[derby378]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here (as I often do) and make the prediction that the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election may come down to a showdown in Texas.

Here's what we know for sure:

Texas has the second largest amount of electoral votes - as of 2004, they had 34 votes in the Electoral College, winner take all. Only California, with 55 votes, commands more of a presence in the College than Texas does. The last time Texas cast its votes for a Democratic candidate was in 1976, when Jimmy Carter garnered 26 electoral votes from Texas.

Since the ascent of Ronald Reagan, Texas has largely been written off as a Republican stronghold - the Governor's mansion has been firmly in Republican hands since 1994, and a highly controversial redistricting ploy in 2003 (masterminded by ex-Congressman Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land) whittled away at the number of Democratic Representatives from Texas on Capitol Hill.

In 2005, however, Cindy Sheehan made the Texas town of Crawford (where George W. Bush maintains a tiny but heavily-guarded ranch) the focal point for reenergizing antiwar activists throughout the nation. Immediately afterwards, Hurricane Katrina drove hundreds of thousands of evacuees from the New Orleans area - a Democratic oasis in a predominantly Republican state - and many of those people put down roots in Texas. As of August 2006, an estimated 220,000 Katrina evacuees were still living in Texas, with 150,000 of them just in the Houston area, further complicating Republican efforts to keep the 22nd Congressional District (DeLay's former district) in Republican hands. Now the seat is held by Democrat Nick Lampson. And Ciro Rodriguez has taken the 23rd Congressional District from Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla.

Then there are the Texas county races in 2006. Dallas County voters filled almost every judge's bench in their jurisdiction with Democratic judges, and then followed it up with a new Democratic district attorney, Craig Watkins, who hit the ground tackling wrongful rape convictions and helping to free inmates with the aid of new DNA tests. And Hays County, which includes San Marcos, handed all of its contested seats on the Commissioners Court to Democrats.

The main difference this time around is that while 2000 and 2004 hinged upon the sanctity and security of the voting process in Florida and Ohio respectively, the Texas race in 2008 may not hinge so much on allegations of election fraud as much as it will on how much the political landscape in Texas has changed due to circumstances far beyond the control of Texas Republicans. This may not sit well with Democrats in California, New York, and Chicago, who may resent having to make more room at the table for their maverick comrades from the Lone Star State.

But there you have it. California and New York are generally considered safe Democratic states for 2008. But Texas as a safe Republican states? 34 electoral votes. Count 'em - especially if you're a Democratic candidate for the White House in 2008.

For Democrats, the stars at night have never been brighter - deep in the heart of Texas.

[yourout]

1. I wish I had even one ounce of hope that Texas could be......

home to anything other than thousands of bible thumping, gun toting, idiots.

[silverlib]

3. Can I count for an ounce?

If I could, and the other strong democrats in this state could count - you could have pounds and not just an ounce.

[derby378]

6. Will you settle for gun-toting Texas Democrats?

Granted, many of them are conservative, but many of the Blue Dogs down here still resonate with the civil rights concerns that many progressive and liberal Democrats deal with. And a growing number of our Congressional Democratic candidates have embraced gun rights as well as more traditional Democratic issues.

[mdmc]

2. i think texas is safe red

[GeneCosta]

4. I wish I shared your optimism

I live in Denton County, one of the more liberal counties in Texas, and from personal experience there are still a good number of GOP-ONLY voters here. Granted the children are growing up with resentment towards Bush, but the adults are still dwelling on the Confederate flag and countryhood.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. We can win without TX.

True, it would be nice to have it, but we don't need it for either the Presidency or for a majority in either house of Congress. We can win with the rest of the country, just like we did in '06.

[derby378]

8. We tried that in 2000 and 2004 - and we failed both times

A good soldier never leaves a man behind. Good Democrats across America, in this respect, must learn to become good soldiers.

We're here. We're motivated. And we know the Republican machine in Texas is no longer indestructible.

[pstans]

7. What Democratic candidate would do the best in Texas?

Richardson because of the Latino vote?
Clark because he is from nearby Arkansas?
Edwards because he is a southerner?

[crispini]

10. LOL, see my post below.

Clark, being a general, has stellar and undoubtable "guy" cred. That could go down well with rural and gun-totin' voters.

Richardson has the potential to REALLY unify and get out the Latino vote.

Clinton would be a walking disaster.

Edited to add: I dunno about Edwards. Haven't really got an angle on that yet.

[derby378]

12. Of those three, I think Richardson would win it hands-down

Remember that he hosted the Killer Ds in 2003 when they tried to derail the Republican redistricting process. They would be foolish not to remember his kindness.

[crispini]

9. You know, Derby, depending on who the nominee is,

I can see it getting a lot closer than it has been in the past. I think that Clark and maybe Richardson would go down well with the Texas electorate. But, realistically, based on how well our statewide candidates did in 2006 ... and they were some damn good statewides, too... I don't think that we're gonna get that close.

But that don't mean I'm not gonna work like a ____ _______ to make it happen! :bounce:

[derby378]

11. Heck, even Al Gore might have a decent shot this time around...

Democrats and Republicans both love the natural beauty of Texas, even if they have strong disagreements on how best to preserve it. Gore's emphasis on global warming and environmental equilibrium could be enough to finally convince Texas Republicans weary of killer summer heat to finally give him a listen.

[wakeme2008]

13. LOL it sounds like the GOP trying to break the Dem hold on New Orleans (NOM)

with SLOWWWWWW rebuilding may have FU Texas for them.

Both Gore and Kerry ignored Texas in their runs IMHO the 2008 Dem Candidate MUST make many trips to Texas While a number of posters talk about which Dem candidate would be best, think which Repug would be the Texas GOP worst nightmare. The Hispanic vote in Texas could be put off by some rabid anti-illegals GOP candidates.

A major GOTV with exNOLA and Hispanics IMHO could turn Texas BLUE...

[derby378]

14. And I really hate to say this...

...but a lot of Houstonians are blaming the NOLA evacuees for rising crime rates in their city. How much truth there is behind these allegations is another matter, but I do hope it's exaggerated.